2026 Fantasy Baseball: First Base Tier List

The first base position may be more top-loaded than it ever has been for fantasy baseball. The top tier is far and away more reliable and productive than the second tier. Tier two is littered with aging veterans, with Rafael Devers and Josh Naylor the only players under 30, but the tier’s production is a slight drop-off from the top tier.

Then tiers three and four offer players with intriguing upside; however, they come with loads of risk. The list concludes with players whose careers have been plagued by injuries or who have failed to live up to their minor-league hype.

All position designations are based on playing at least 20 games at a position, using Fantrax’s position eligibility chart.

Fantasy Baseball First Base Tier List

Tier One – The Elite

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR – 1B)
• Pete Alonso (BAL – 1B)
• Nick Kurtz (ATH – 1B)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. started last season slowly in terms of his power, not hitting his first home run until his 19th game. Hopefully, the drought was just a result of the question marks around his future weighing on him. He’s now a mainstay in Toronto through 2039, and fantasy baseball managers will look to see Guerrero Jr. reach the 30 home run and 100 RBI mark again.

Pete Alonso changes scenery for the first time in his career. Playing his home games at Camden Yards should help boost his BABIP, though last season he posted a career-high .305 BABIP. I don’t see him reaching the 126 RBI mark again, but batting behind Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson will give Alonso ample opportunities.

The 2025 AL Rookie of the Year, Nick Kurtz, was phenomenal in his rookie season, hitting 36 home runs, 90 runs, and 86 RBIs. He struggled against lefties (.234 BABIP), compared to a .428 BABIP versus righties this season. It looks like the Athletics may take a page out of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ playbook with Shohei Ohtani by batting Kurtz leadoff. Unlike Ohtani, Kurtz can’t steal bases, so this strategy would significantly affect his RBI chances. He should still hit 30 or more home runs, though.

Nick Kurtz’ 1B rankings last season

1st in wRC+
1st in OPS
2nd in Home Runs
2nd in fWAR
3rd in Runs

Also the only Rookie to hit 4 HRs in a single game, tying Shawn Green’s MLB record 19 total bases (2002) pic.twitter.com/p3C8W6GGQI

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) January 11, 2026

Tier Two – Veterans Who Can Produce

• Bryce Harper (PHI – 1B)
• Matt Olson (ATL – 1B)
• Freddie Freeman (LAD – 1B)
• Rafael Devers (SFG – 1B)
• Josh Naylor (SEA – 1B)
• Yandy Diaz (TBR – 1B)
• Salvador Perez (KCR – C/1B)

Bryce Harper has been a consistent contributor throughout his 14-year career, though last season he didn’t look like his usual MVP self. His .292 BABIP was under .300 for the first time since 2018 (excluding the Covid-shortened 2020 season), and his slash line (.261/.357/.487) was also his worst since his final season in Washington (2018). I don’t think it’s his age catching up to him, as he still hit 27 home runs in 2025, so you can still count on him to be a top 5 first baseman for the upcoming season.

Matt Olson has hit at least 25 home runs and 83 RBIs in his last eight seasons (except 2020), but the 54 home runs and 139 RBIs in 2023 look more like an anomaly than numbers he can reach again. He’s failed to replicate the barrel percentage, exit velocity, or hard hit percentage that led to his career season. Batting at the top of a strong Atlanta Braves lineup will give him plenty of run opportunities, but the RBI chance is decreased with him batting second.

Despite his highest strikeout percentage (20.4 percent) since 2016, Freddie Freeman was still able to hit .295/.367/.502, 24 home runs, 81 runs, and 90 RBIs. He’s also been able to post a BABIP over .300 in 13 straight seasons. Batting third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup will allow Freeman another reliable fantasy season.

Devers’ batting average drastically dropped to .236, and he suffered a career-worst 29.4 strikeout percentage after being traded to the San Francisco Giants. He will still hit 20+ home runs, but the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is not friendly to left-handed power bats. However, Devers will still finish in the top 10 of first basemen.

With the Seattle Mariners, Naylor received a spike in his ISO (.191) and BABIP (.322), but his most impressive stat was his 19 stolen bases on 19 attempts. He’ll have another successful season that could be even better if the stolen bases continue.

Yandy Diaz has had a rollercoaster career. In his ninth career season, he set career numbers in home runs (25) and RBIs (83). The power increase can be attributed to playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field last season, as renovations were underway at Tropicana Field following a hurricane that damaged the roof. The Tampa Bay Rays will return to Tropicana Field next season, so expect a slight power decrease for Diaz.

Salvador Perez gains his fantasy upside being catcher eligible. He had a power increase last season (30), but suffered a decrease in BABIP (.251). He’s been relatively consistent over his 14-year career; however, expect some regression as he turns 36 in May, though the Royals moving the outfield fence in 10 feet is significant.

Here are the 2025 spray charts for Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez.

Kansas City is moving the walls in 10 feet… pic.twitter.com/yfMB4e8aiD

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 13, 2026

Tier Three – Breakout Performers, Who Come at a Cost

• Tyler Soderstrom (ATH – 1B/OF)
• Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR – 1B)
• Ben Rice (NYY – C/1B)
• Michael Busch (CHC – 1B)

Tyler Soderstrom broke out last season, hitting 25 home runs, scoring 75 runs, and had 93 RBIs. With another season playing his home games in a minor league park, look for similar success, though his low 24.3 flyball rate is concerning.

Vinnie Pasquantino had a career season in 2025, hitting 32 home runs, scoring 72 runs, and knocking in 113 runs. The power came at a cost with his highest strikeout percentage (15.7) and a below-average BABIP (.271). He also struggles against left-handed pitchers. He only hit six home runs and had a .236 BABIP against them, which could be because he had 354 fewer plate appearances versus lefties than righties. He’ll have another average-power productive season, but until he figures out lefties, he will continue to be platooned, likely limiting his 2026 stats.

Ben Rice’s second MLB season was far more successful than the first, but he, too, couldn’t hit left-handed pitchers. He had 292 fewer plate appearances against lefties last season than against righties. Because of these struggles, he’ll likely suffer another strong side platoon. His main fantasy appeal is that he is position-eligible at catcher, where he can be a top performer.

Michael Busch continues the trend in tier three of having a career year last season. He produced 34 home runs, 78 runs, and 90 RBIs. He also had his highest ISO (.261), but his BABIP decreased from .322 in 2024 to .292 last season. Busch had a strong side platoon as well last season, with 95 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, compared to 497 plate appearances against righties. If Busch can replicate his 44.2 pull percentage, he will have another productive season, but don’t expect 30+ home runs.

Tier Four – Lots of Potential Upside

• Jonathan Aranda (TBR – 1B)
• Alec Burleson (STL – 1B/OF)
• Christian Walker (HOU – 1B)
• Sal Stewart (CIN – 1B/3B)
• Jake Burger (TEX – 1B)
• Willson Contreras (BOS – 1B)

Jonathan Aranda has yet to live up to his minor-league hype, but he had an impressive .409 BABIP before an injury cost him over a month of playing time in the second half of the season. His 30.5 line-drive percentage contributed to his success. If he can stay healthy and replicate that line-drive rate, Aranda could be a top 10 first baseman.

Alec Burleson has been an average fantasy producer over his four-year career. If he can increase his low flyball percentage (28.8 percent), he could take the next step to improving his power production.

Christian Walker’s first season with the Houston Astros was a tale of two halves. He started slow with an 84 wRC+ in the first half of the season, but a 120 rating in the second half. If Walker can put together a full season of the production he ended last season with, 2026 could be a monstrous year for the Astros’ first baseman.

The one player I am highest on this season is Sal Stewart. You can read more about my interest in my article on first baseman sleepers. He’s a player who had massive success in the minor leagues. The Reds recently added Eugenio Suarez, which opens the door for Stewart to receive full-time at-bats at first base. Look for big things from the rookie this season.

Fenway Park is much more appealing to right-handed hitters than Busch Stadium. That means Willson Contreras may have a boost to his power numbers this season, especially with his 37.7 pull percentage. We may see a career year from Contreras during the next season.

Jonathan Aranda Broke Out In 2025 pic.twitter.com/r4WwiLdi5t

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) January 8, 2026

Tier Five – Living on Hopes and Dreams

• Spencer Torkleson (DET – 1B)
• Nolan Schanuel (LAA – 1B)
• Spencer Steer (CIN – 1B)
• Andrew Vaughn (MIL -1B)
• Kyle Manzardo (CLE – 1B)
• Miguel Vargas (CWS – 1B/3B)

Tier five is full of guys who have shown flashes of being productive in fantasy baseball, but can’t put together back-to-back seasons. Spencer Steer may be the other exception, but his career stats in batting average (.243) and BABIP (.285) leave room for improvement in a Reds lineup that should be explosive.

Kyle Manzardo had a solid second MLB season, hitting 27 home runs; however, he can’t hit left-handed pitchers. He had a .193 BABIP against them last season in 95 plate appearances, compared to a .281 average over 436 plate appearances against righties.

Tier Six – New Team, High Expectations

• Kazuma Okamoto (TOR – 1B/3B)
• Munetaka Murakami (CWS – 1B/3B)
• Ryan O’Hearn (PIT – 1B/OF)
• Josh Bell (MIN – 1B)

Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami leave Japan to bring their skills to America. They both bring high expectations, but the question is, how long will it take them to adjust to American pitching?

Ryan O’Hearn and Josh Bell bring average fantasy production to new teams. The Pirates and Twins both are looking to make massive improvements offensively, and O’Hearn and Bell could be power contributors for them.

Tier Seven – Deep League, Low Expectations

• Pavin Smith (ARI – 1B)
• Spencer Horwitz (PIT – 1B)
• Luis Arraez (SFG- 1B/2B)
• Paul Goldschmidt (NYY- 1B)

These four players shouldn’t be considered unless in deep leagues. 10-15 home runs with 50-60 runs and RBIs would be high ceilings for them.