Home run totals can fluctuate significantly from season to season, making it important for fantasy managers to look beyond the surface numbers when projecting future power. While last year’s stat line may suggest stability, underlying metrics such as barrel rate, hard-hit rate, launch angle, exit velocity, and HR/FB rate often tell a different story.
By examining how a player’s power indicators align with their recent home run totals, we can identify hitters whose long-ball production may be due for regression in 2026.
Your first step… Well, okay, your second step, right after reading this article, is to head over and devour our updated Top 500 Dynasty Baseball Rankings for 2026.
2026 Fantasy Baseball: Power Regression Candidates to Avoid in Drafts
Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers)
2025 Home Runs – 29
After dealing with injuries in 2024, Yelich bounced back in a big way last year with 29 home runs, 88 runs scored, and 103 RBI. The home run total is something I don’t think is at all sustainable for multiple reasons. His 29 home runs in 2025 were the third-highest of his career, and he is now entering his age-34 season.
Father time isn’t the only factor, as the advanced stats also back up the projected regression. While the barrel rate (10.3%) and hard hit rate (46.4%) were slightly above average, he posted career lows in both launch angle(1.9°) and average exit velocity(90.2 mph).
Digging into those numbers further, Yelich’s 1.9° launch angle was the lowest of all 145 qualified hitters in 2025, which is concerning, as the average for those hitters was 13.6 on the season. Going deeper into his launch angle stats, his sweet spot % was 31% in 2025, which is about 4-5% below average. The 2025 HR/FB rate of 29.6% seems like a bit of an outlier at his age, seeing as he averaged just 16.9% over the previous four seasons and averages 22% for his career.
Finally, I analyzed the pre-season player prop futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook. Yelich is currently a -140 to put up 20 or more home runs, jumping to a +200 in the 25+ home run market, and doesn’t even make the board for the 30+ home run market. I am not interested in drafting a player in the 10th/11th round who is a DH only and is likely to lack 25+ home run power. I will pass on Yelich in 2026.
Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays)
2025 Home Runs – 25
I don’t think I am going out on a limb with this one, as Diaz is coming off a career-high 25 home runs and, like Yelich, is now entering his age-34 season. To be fair, Diaz has been a valuable fantasy baseball asset the last four seasons, averaging 17.5 home runs, 75 runs scored, and 70.8 RBI with a .301/.379/.461 slash line over that stretch. The issue I have in 2026 is drafting him more than 70 spots ahead of where he was available last season, as I see regression hitting, especially from the power department.
Looking at some of the advanced stats, you can see why he never became a true power hitter and has only hit 20 home runs twice in his career. The biggest issue is that he just doesn’t get the ball in the air enough. Of all qualified hitters (145) in 2025, Diaz had the second-lowest launch angle (5°), which was right in line with his career average of 5.2°. Then comes the below-average barrel rate, which was 8.3% in 2025 and about 1% higher than his career average. Finally, the HR/FB rate also hit a career-high in 2025 at 18.2% and probably settles back down somewhere closer to his 12.8% career average.
Over on DraftKings Sportsbook, Diaz is a -185 to hit 20 or more home runs but a +140 to hit 25 or more. While it is close, I am banking on Diaz returning to career averages in the underlying stats and see him more in the 18-22 range, and that means he is being drafted too high for me to draft him in 2026.
Jose Altuve (Houston Astros)
2025 Home Runs – 26
The mid-30’s veteran narrative continues in this article with Jose Altuve up next. After injuries held him to just 90 games in 2023, Altuve has bounced back with two full healthy seasons, playing 153 and 155 games. During those seasons, he has tallied 20 or more home runs, 80 or more runs, and 65 or more RBI in each.
We started to see the decline of the stolen bases last season, as he tallied just 10, and now I feel we are going to start seeing the decline in power, as well. He posted his lowest barrel rate(6.2%) since 2020 and ranked 78th of 79 hitters who tallied 20 or more home runs. Also troubling is the fact that he posted a career-low in average exit velocity(85.1 mph) and the fourth-lowest hard hit rate(30.9%) of his career. What saved him is the 17.1° launch angle, which always plays at Houston’s home park.
Altuve’s ADP has definitely fallen off, but not with a projected decline in the power and speed; it’s still too high for me in 2026.
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