2026 is fast approaching, which means it is time to start preparing for fantasy baseball drafts. The MLB season is a long one, and sometimes it can be difficult to even remember what happened. Keeping track of which performances stood out and which breakouts were legit can be a lot to juggle. This article has fantasy baseball managers covered with a high-level look at what to expect from the first base position in 2026.
If you want to look back on fantasy baseball takeaways from 2025, you can check out this article here on Fantrax, or a more dynasty-focused view over on Pitcher List.
With the World Series in the rear-view mirror, it is officially time to turn the page to 2026. Some fantasy baseball addicts are already drafting for next season. Draft season is the best season and is coming quicker than you may realize. The goal of this article is to help give fantasy baseball managers a general overview of the third base position in 2026. Who is elite? Who has breakout potential? Which players could see a regression from their 2025 success? All of these questions and more are answered in the article below.
The Elite Fantasy Baseball Picks
Nick Kurtz – Athletics
A one-season sample size is large enough to know that Nick Kurtz is already an elite fantasy asset. The Athletics’ first-round pick from 2024 is looking like a home run pick. In 117 games, Kurtz hit .290 with an incredible 36 home runs. Kurtz’s numbers look even better if you remove the first few weeks of his season.
From May 13 forward, Kurtz slashed .293/.392/.660. The lone area of concern moving forward is Kurtz’s hit tool. He posted a first percentile whiff rate, especially struggling with breaking balls. After one season, Kurtz looks like an elite four-category contributor. Considering Kurtz is only 22 years old, there is plenty of time for him to improve his hit tool in the coming seasons.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays
Vladdy Jr. got the big contract he was looking for and did not take his foot off the gas pedal. In 156 games last season, Guerrero slashed .292/.381/.467 with 23 home runs. For the fifth straight season, Guerrero cleared the 80+ run and RBI threshold. He is an elite four-category contributor and is as safe a fantasy asset as there is.
Everything on Guerrero’s Statcast page is red. He hits the ball hard, makes great contact, and has excellent plate discipline. His home run total decreased a bit from 2024 to 2025, but he remains an elite asset with 30+ home run potential. If Guerrero can increase his launch angle just a touch, we could see a Junior Caminero-like power outburst from him. Although he has been around for a long time now, fantasy baseball managers should remember Vladdy is still just 26 years old.
Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Candidates
Kody Clemens – Minnesota Twins
With the Twins selling at this year’s trade deadline and playing uncompetitive baseball down the stretch, many people may have missed Kody Clemens’ run of success. After failing to secure regular playing time in Philadelphia, Clemens found a home with the Twins. He wound up playing 112 games with Minnesota and slashed .216/.263/.403 down the stretch.
The batting average was nothing to write home about, but the power is notable. Clemens hit 19 homers with the Twins. His 600 PA pace while with the Twins would have been 30 home runs. Digging into his profile, there is a case for his batting average to see positive regression next season. He has an above-average sweet spot percentage and an above-average whiff and chase rate. The only issue last season was a .237 BABIP, which should change in 2026.
Spencer Horwitz – Pittsburgh Pirates
Similar to Clemens, second-half production from players on bad teams tends to fly under the radar. Spencer Horwitz entered 2025 with sleeper hype, but injuries and struggles early on caused the hype to fade as the season moved along. By the end of the season, Horwitz’s slash line wound up being exactly what fantasy managers were hoping for. In 111 games, Horwitz hit .272 with 11 home runs and a 119 wRC+.
From July 21 forward, Horwitz slashed .314/.402/.539. During that stretch, his 600 PA HR/Run/RBI pace was 25/99/96. That is elite four category production. His team context is likely to keep his draft price suppressed again in 2026. He should be a popular sleeper/breakout candidate next season.
2025 Seasons to be Wary Of
Matt Olson – Atlanta Braves
This was hit on in the fantasy baseball takeaways from 2025. Matt Olson’s 2025 final slash line is skewed. If you pull up his page, Olson finished the season with a .272/.366/.484 slash and 29 home runs. However, for much of the season, Olson’s power was virtually nonexistent. Entering play on August 27, Olson had hit just 19 home runs.
Olson then proceeded to hit 10 home runs in his final 132 plate appearances. In addition, Olson also posted the highest BABIP of his career. His .333 mark in 2025 is 44 points above his career average. Olson turns 32 next March. While fantasy baseball managers should not be worried about an age cliff yet, his 2025 season was certainly one to be wary of.
Christian Walker – Houston Astros
Houston seems to be the place veteran first basemen go to sail off into the sunset. Christian Walker signed with the Astros prior to the 2025 season and hit 27 home runs in his first season with the team. He finished as the 1B19, which is not horrible, but that was primarily due to the fact that he played 154 games.
In terms of his performance, there were not many positives. The primary sign of aging, Walker saw significant regression to both his whiff and chase rates in 2025. As a result, his strikeout rate jumped up to 27.1% and his batting average plummeted to .238. Walker turns 35 before the start of next season. 2025 could be the beginning of the end. Fantasy baseball managers should be wary of drafting him next season.
Prospects Set to Make a Fantasy Baseball Impact
Bryce Eldridge – San Francisco Giants
At one point, many believed that Bryce Eldridge could be the Giants’ Opening Day first baseman in 2025. Well, that is all but a guarantee for 2026. After dealing with injuries early in the season, Eldridge finally made his way to the Major Leagues on September 15. Even though he only hit .107 in 10 games, future expectations remain high. Standing at 6’7″, power is Eldridge’s calling card.
He hit 25 home runs in just 102 Minor League games this past season. The ceiling is 40+ at the Major League level. The two main areas of concern are Eldridge’s strikeout rate and his struggles against lefties. He struck out 35.1% of the time in his first taste of Major League action and has struggled against lefties throughout his professional career. Eldridge is considered the top first base prospect in baseball, but does not come without his risks.
Charlie Condon – Colorado Rockies
Charlie Condon’s start to his professional career has been anything but consistent. At this point, it feels like forever ago that Condon was drafted third overall. Turns out, 2025 was Condon’s first full professional season. After dealing with injuries early in the season, Condon wound up playing in 99 games split across four levels. He finished the season with 14 homers and a .268 average.
The more interesting development was a nearly full-time transition to first base. Condon was drafted as a third baseman/outfielder but now moves to first base. This puts more pressure on his bat to play up, but there is a seemingly more wide-open path to the Major Leagues. While the Rockies have a lot of holes on their roster, first base is a glaring one. Condon should find himself playing in Colorado as early as next season.
Pay Attention to the Off-Season
Does Pete Alonso leave New York?
This question holds fantasy ramifications beyond just first base. In a vacuum, Alonso leaving New York would open up an obvious hole for the Mets. Not only that, but how does Alonso react to his new team, and what does that landing spot look like? Could it be across the city in the Bronx with the Yankees? Could it be a less favorable hitting environment like Seattle? In New York, do the Mets give prospect Ryan Clifford a chance to earn the first base job? Does Mark Vientos slide over to first base, opening up a lineup spot at third base? As you can see, there are lots of questions that will be answered as the off-season moves along. Pete Alonso’s free agent landing spot is one of the most important storylines for fantasy baseball managers to pay attention to.
Where do the platoon bats land?
Alonso and even Josh Naylor are the big names on the free agent market. However, there are a lot of other bats that could have an impact on playing time. The signings of Rhys Hoskins, Ryan O’Hearn, and Paul Goldschmidt could have a significant impact on other assets’ fantasy upside. A young player like Bryce Eldridge, who was mentioned earlier, could see a significant hit to his playing time against lefties if the Giants go out and sign Rhys Hoskins. A player like Andrew Vaughn could see his playing time decrease against lefties if the Brewers signed Ryan O’Hearn or even Rowdy Tellez. Fantasy managers need to pay attention to which teams are setting up platoon situations for 2026.
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