5 Rebound Candidates for Fantasy Baseball 2026

Everyone is looking for an edge in fantasy baseball drafts. One way to outsmart your league mates is to identify potentially undervalued players, or players who you think can bounce back to past performances. Below are my favorite rebound candidates for the upcoming season.

Rebound Candidates for Fantasy Baseball 2026

BAL SS Gunnar Henderson (15 ADP)

Gunnar Henderson, despite playing with a shoulder impingement most of the season, still tallied 17 home runs. Here he is talking about the injury:

Orioles star Gunnar Henderson shed light on the shoulder impingement that impacted his performance during the 2025 season. He posted career-low marks for home runs (17) and RBIs (68), but managed to play in 154 games despite the injury.

Henderson joined a number of Orioles… pic.twitter.com/g9u7BvXUur

— The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) January 24, 2026

Even while playing hurt, he finished the season with 85 runs, 68 RBI, 30 steals, and a .274 AVG. Those numbers clearly could have been better had he been healthy.

Many signs point to Henderson’s injury negatively impacting his power last season. His ISO, barrel%, and HardHit% all dipped to career lows. And despite a nearly identical breakdown in his LD%, GB%, and FB% to 2024, Henderson’s HR/FB rate dropped to a career low 12%.

Many drafters are already reading the tea leaves and drafting him early, as they should. Henderson is a prime rebound candidate for 2026.

ATL 3B Austin Riley (79 ADP)

Austin Riley fought through injuries, playing just 102 games. During that span, he hit 16 homers, with 54 runs, 54 RBI, six steals, and a .260 AVG.

Had he managed a healthy season, he likely would have performed in 2021-2023, where he hit over 30 home runs in each season. Riley did not lose any hard contact despite facing injuries. His barrel and HardHit rates were among the best of his career. His batted ball stats were right along with his career norms. And he drove and pulled the ball well.

One area that hurt Riley’s performance was some bad luck with flyballs. He owns a career 18% HR/FB rate, and despite hitting a higher rate of flyballs than his career norm, only 12% turned into home runs.

A full and healthy year, and a little better home run luck, make Riley a rebound candidate for 2026 drafts.

TOR SP Dylan Cease (80 ADP)

Dylan Cease had some impressive numbers last season, striking out 11 batters per nine innings. It was the highest rate among qualified pitchers. Despite the high strikeout totals, he finished the season with a disappointing 4.55 ERA.

Cease’s issues in 2025 included a low LOB% and a high BABIP. Those issues manifested despite his pull rate and line drive rate allowed being close to his norm. His GB% was marginally worse than his career average, but it should not have hurt his ERA so significantly. So why the horrible ERA?

He played for the Padres last season, one of the league’s worst defenses. He also played in front of below-average defenses in Chicago, for the White Sox, for the two years prior. In all of those seasons, his strand rates were 69%. Also, in the last three seasons, Cease’s SIERAs have all been better than his ERAs.

In 2026, Cease will have Toronto’s defense helping him, which was one of the best defenses in the league last season. The Jays should also help him win more games, with their run-scoring ability.

Cease has a chance to be one of the most improved pitchers in baseball and is a great rebound candidate for fantasy drafts.

BOS SP Sonny Gray (130 ADP)

Sonny Gray had some of his best statistical seasons in St. Louis the last two seasons, but that did not show in his ERA either year. Last season, he finished with a 4.28 ERA, but with a 3.07 xFIP and a 3.29 SIERA.

Last season, Gray boasted a 10.0 K/9 rate and the best BB/9 rate of his career at 1.8. His GB% was above league average, as it has been every year of his career. Gray’s chase% and contact% were both better than his career norm, thanks to the league’s best sweeper. And taking this into context with other data, it does not add up to a 4+ ERA.

Digging deeper, Gray’s .329 BABIP was 40 points higher than his career average. Even with a LD% and Pull% nearly identical to career norms, how could this happen? His 69% LOB rate was below average, and the Cardinals finished as the 19th-best team in defensive runs saved.

Boston, on the other hand, finished last season 12th, with 25 more DRS than St. Louis. Gray will also benefit from Andrew Bailey as his pitching coach. Gray and Bailey are both data-influenced and will see eye-to-eye on many aspects of Gray’s approach.

In Boston, Gray could have a career resurgence and even a career year. He is a major rebound candidate for 2026.

BAL C Adley Rutschman (153 ADP)

Adley Rutschman had a disappointing 2025, missing roughly the total of two months on the injured list across two stints. He played in just 90 games, hitting nine home runs. He had 37 runs, 29 RBI, and a .220 as well.

Fantasy drafters had expected more out of Rutschman, and may get a return to form this season. For Rutschman, this seemed to be more of a volume issue than a drop in ability.

One positive for Rutschman, and a major sign a bounce back is on the way, is that his plate discipline was some of the best of his career last year. He improved his walk and strikeout rates in 2024. Plus, he improved his chase rate to a career best, while also posting his best-ever contact rate.

Rutschman also pulled the ball well and had nearly identical hard contact data to his 20-homer season in 2023. What caused most of his problems was a dip in launch angle from last season, which is easy enough to fix. That certainly played a part in his drop in BABIP and HR/FB% from 2024, and in his ugly AVG and home run total.

With some more playing time, drafters can feel at ease knowing Rutschman’s skills were not the problem last season. In fact, he arguably has become a better hitter with each season. Draft Rutschman at a discount this season, and wait to see the rebound happen right before your eyes.