We are just over a week into the 2022 season, but it is time to start looking at trends. I am back with my weekly “Statcast Standouts” article looking at trends in Statcast metrics to help identify players that could be on the rise or falling off. I love diving into Statcast and learning more about applying it to Fantasy Baseball each year.
It is very early, so it is important to note that small samples produce interesting results. But for the most part, the usual suspects top the Statcast leaderboards. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. top nearly every Statcast leaderboard. But who are some players who caught my eye at the top? Let’s talk about them.
Statcast Standouts: Week 1
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki is making a strong opinion right out of the gate. In his first 35 plate appearances, Suzuki has a .400/.543/.960 slash line. No, the .960 is not his OPS; that’s his slugging percentage. Suzuki has demonstrated elite plate discipline and has drawn 10 walks in the early going. Suzuki has 16 batted balls, 10 of which resulted in hits. His quality of contact has been off the charts.
Suzuki ranks first among all hitters in barrel rate per batted ball event with a 35.3 percent rate. That is five percentage points higher than Giancarlo Stanton, who ranks second. Suzuki ranks second in barrels per plate appearances with a 17.1 percent barrel rate, second to Giancarlo Stanton. His average exit velocity of 92.7 mph and his max exit velocity of 110.9 mph rank 83rd percentile or better among all hitters.
On top of the excellent quality of contact metrics, Suzuki makes great contact. He does not chase at all, and his 11.3 percent chase rate ranks 97th percentile among all hitters. He has a 90.3 percent zone-contact rate and an overall contact rate of 84.2 percent.
Suzuki has the makings of an elite hitter for fantasy purposes. He likely will not contribute much in the stolen base department, but Suzuki’s batting average and power should be enough to provide plenty of counting stats for fantasy.
Sean Murphy, C, Oakland Athletics
Sean Murphy is off to a strong start in a surprisingly good Oakland lineup in 2022. Murphy is hitting .256 with two home runs and a .866 OPS, but that does not paint a great picture of how he has hit the ball. Murphy’s quality of contact metrics are excellent.
Murphy has 23 batted balls in 2022 and has a 21.7 percent barrel rate, which ranks eighth among all hitters. His average exit velocity is currently 94.3 mph, and his max exit velocity of 114 is nearly 1.5 mph up from last season and his career-best. His 90th percentile exit velocity ranks sixth among all hitters. Murphy’s hard-hit rate of 65.2 percent ranks fifth among all hitters.
Murphy struggles with swing and miss and has a 33.3 percent strikeout rate. Strikeouts will likely always be a big part of his game, but Murphy’s improved quality of contact makes him a viable catcher for fantasy leagues.
Alex Verdugo, OF, Boston Red Sox
Alex Verdugo has been a pleasant surprise in 2022. Verdugo has always been known for his contact skills, but not very much power. Between 2019 and 2021, Verdugo hit just 31 home runs in 1202 plate appearances. He currently already has three in just 32 plate appearances.
Verdugo is not selling out for power. He has not sacrificed any contact for power, as shown by his 93.5 percent zone-contact rate. One of the biggest notable changes in Verdugo’s profile is a 36 percent ground ball rate. He has a 50.3 percent groundball rate for his career. Vergudo is hitting more fly balls, and more are turning into home runs? Why? Let’s see what the Statcast data says.
Verdugo currently owns a 16 percent barrel rate which puts him in the top-20 of all hitters. On a per-plate appearance basis, Verdugo ranks in the top-15. He has also seen his average exit velocity rise over the last three seasons, so it does not seem flukey that Verdugo has a 92.4 mph average exit velocity. There is no data to back it, but Verdugo’s bat speed looks quicker this season to my eye. His swing also seems more natural and fluid. This could be leading to more fly balls and harder hit balls.
Considering Verdugo’s contact skills have stuck with some slight mechanical adjustments, a breakout season could be on the way for Alex Verdugo. If the increased fly ball rate sticks with increased exit velocity, 20-25 home runs are definitely a possibility for Verdugo in 2022.
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Data References: Baseball Savant, Fangraphs