July MLB Schedule Preview: Get Ahead of the Game

This is the fourth of a planned series of articles in 2022 that will take a general look ahead at the upcoming month. The goal is to look at good and bad matchups for both hitters and pitchers, schedule quirks, what to watch out for in FAAB, and any other tidbits that I can think of. If you have any suggestions for items that you’d like me to include here, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JennyButler830.

This preview covers four fantasy weeks, from 7/4 through 7/31. Pitching matchups are mostly set for the first week of July, so individual player stats were used for the matchup notes. Team pitching and batting statistics for the month of June will be used for the remaining 3 weeks of July.

Matchups

Week 1 (7/4 – 7/10)

• All teams play at least 6 games.
• 8 games: BOS, CIN, DET
• Because 7/4 is a holiday, most teams are playing. The teams that have the day off are the Yankees, Angels, Pirates, and Phillies.
• Favorable pitching matchups:
  • Blue Jays (OAK/SEA). Manoah and Kikuchi are scheduled for two starts. Kikuchi is widely available in 12-team NFBC leagues.
  • Guardians (DET/KC). Zach Plesac is scheduled for two starts.
  • Astros (KC/OAK). It looks like the Astros are going to go to a 6-man rotation for now, so only Jake Odorizzi is scheduled for two starts.
  • Angels (MIA/BAL). Noah Syndergaard is scheduled for two starts.
  • Marlins (WAN/LAA/NYM). This one may be deceiving, but both the Angels and the Mets have been below-average offenses for the last month.
  • Brewers (CHC/PIT). Eric Lauer has two starts, but he has struggled recently, so fantasy managers should be cautious.
  • Padres (SEA/SF). Because of the 6-man rotation, there aren’t any pitchers with two starts, but the Padres starters have been pitching well recently.
• Favorable hitting matchups:
  • The Marlins and the Orioles will be facing the Angels, and each will see Noah Syndergaard, so get those SB guys into your lineups!
  • Teams with matchups against teams with pitching staffs that have struggled in June (based on xFIP): Blue Jays (OAK/SEA), White Sox (MIN/DET), Guardians (DET/KC), Astros (KC/OAK), Rangers (BAL/MIN).
  • The Diamondbacks face 3 of 4 lefties in the first half of the week. Jordan Luplow should get some additional playing time.
  • The Orioles face 4 righties in the first half of the week, then face 2 of 3 lefties over the weekend.
  • The Giants face 4 of 7 lefties for the full week. This presents an interesting problem for teams rostering Giants players, since they platoon so heavily. Any Giants platoon player will only start about half of the games.
  • The Nationals face 3 of 4 lefties for the first half of the week. Victor Robles may see a few extra PA.
  • The Red Sox, Cubs, Pirates, Padres, and Rockies each face 2 of 3 lefties over the weekend. Bobby Dalbec, Christian Arroyo, Nelson Velasquez, Michael Chavis, Diego Castillo, and Jose Azocar will benefit. The Rockies don’t currently have any clear platoons in their lineup.
  • Teams with at least 7 games facing only 1 left-handed pitcher during the week: Reds, Guardians, White Sox, and Tigers. The Royals and Phillies face all right-handed pitchers.

Week 2 (7/11 – 7/17)

• 5 game weeks: BAL, LAA, LAD
• 8 game weeks: CLE, CWS, DET, KC
• The Angels and Dodgers play a two-game series on 7/15 and 7/16, then both have a day off on Sunday 7/17.
• Tentative pitching matchups:
  • The Cubs, Twins, and Mariners will play all 6 games against righties.
  • The Guardians will play all 8 games vs righties.
  • The Marlins will play 6 of 7 games against righties.
  • The Pirates will play 3 of the first 4 games of the week vs lefties, before traveling to Coors field over the weekend.
  • The Padres will play 4 of 7 games against lefties.
• Difficult matchups:
  • The Twins play 6 games against MIL and CWS.
  • The Red Sox will play 7 games on the road at TB and NYY.
  • The Angels play 5 games at home vs HOU and LAD.
  • The Reds play 6 games on the road against NYY and STL.
• Favorable matchups:
  • The Tigers play 8 games on the road against KC and CLE.
  • The Astros play 6 games against LAA and OAK.
  • The Padres play 7 games at COL, then at home vs ARI. Pitching at Coors Field can be dangerous, but the Rockies hitters have a combined 89 WRC+ since June 1.
  • The Pirates hitters will travel to Coors Field over the weekend.
  • The Mariners play 6 games on the road at WSH and TEX.
  • The Rangers play 7 games at home against OAK and SEA.

Week 3 (7/18 – 7/24)

• It’s All-Star week!
• All teams are off Monday through Wednesday.
• There are a few games on Thursday. In leagues that have mid-week lineup changes, players from these teams can be valuable:
  • Doubleheader: HOU/NYY, OAK/DET
  • Single game: MIA/TEX, SF/LAD
• Most teams will not play 5 games during week 3, so not all starting pitchers will get a start. As much as possible, try to maximize starts and fill in with relief pitchers wherever possible.
• The Guardians and White Sox play a doubleheader on 7/23, giving each team 4 games over the weekend.
• The Tigers and Twins have an additional off day on Friday 7/22, which leaves them only two games over the weekend.
• Difficult matchups:
  • The Orioles will face NYY at home.
  • The Red Sox and Blue Jays will play each other at Boston.
  • The Angels play 3 games at ATL.
  • The Mariners play HOU at home.
  • The Mets and Padres will play each other in New York. It is possible that the Mets pitching staff will be back to full strength.
  • The Dodgers and Giants will play a 4 game series beginning on 7/21.
• Favorable matchups:
  • The Yankees will travel to BAL.
  • The Twins will play 2 games at DET.
  • The A’s and Rangers play each other, which is a favorable matchup for both teams.
  • The Braves play 3 games at home vs LAA.
  • The Marlins will travel to PIT.
  • The Nationals and Diamondbacks will play each other, which is a favorable matchup for both teams.
  • The Brewers will play COL at home.

Week 4 (7/25 – 7/31)

• 5 game weeks: CWS, MIN, NYM, STL
• 8 game weeks: none
• The White Sox and Dodgers will travel to COL.
• Difficult matchups:
  • The Tigers play 3 games at home vs SD and 4 games at TOR.
  • The Twins play 5 games at MIL and SD.
  • The A’s play 6 games at home vs HOU and at CWS.
  • The Nationals play 6 games at LAD and at home vs STL.
  • The Diamondbacks play 6 games at home vs SF and at ATL.
  • The Rockies play 7 games: One game at MIL, then 6 games at home vs CWS and LAD.
• Favorable matchups:
  • The Yankees play 6 games: 2 at NYM, and 4 at home vs KC. The Mets hitters have struggled in June. It might be a better matchup for the Yankees pitchers than it would seem.
  • The Rays play 6 games at BAL and at home vs CLE.
  • The Blue Jays play 6 games at home vs STL and DET. The Cardinals hitters have been playing well, but the pitchers have been vulnerable.
  • The White Sox play 2 games at COL and 3 games at home vs OAK.
  • The Astros play 6 games at OAK and at home vs SEA.
  • The Angels play 7 games at KC and at home vs TEX.
  • The Rangers play 7 games at SEA and LAA.
  • The Dodgers play 7 games at home vs WSH and at COL.

Additional Notes

The Phillies, Royals, Cardinals, and Tigers will be traveling to Toronto. Players on visiting teams must be vaccinated 14 days prior to entering Canada. We don’t know yet which players from these teams may be affected so pay attention to the news when the teams are getting ready to make the trip and when the lineups are announced. We may get some news that will allow us to make some quick roster moves.

The All-Star break in the middle of July is a convenient break for fantasy managers. It’s a great time to really start digging into your league standings. It’s important to not only look at the standings but the distribution of the statistics. It’s possible that there are categories where your team may be low in the standings but may not actually be that far away from the middle or even the top of the standings. It’s also a good idea to think about how a push to make up ground in one category might affect the other categories. Putting several players that steal bases in your lineup could cause you to lose ground in home runs and RBI. Starting more RP in an effort to get saves could hurt you in wins and strikeouts.

In the last 3 months of the season, gains and losses are made in smaller increments. It’s very important for fantasy managers to put in the work every week setting lineups and in free agency. Those small incremental moves can add up over time. It might also be time to start dropping players that are not performing. It can be difficult to let go of a player that was drafted in the top 100 picks, but if a player is hurting your team and his underlying stats support his struggles, it might be time to move on. Similarly, there are players that appeared to break out early in the season, but regression is catching up to them and bringing them back to earth. It’s easy to get attached to guys that have come out of nowhere to help your team, but it’s important to look at your roster with a critical eye and make the necessary moves.

We are also quickly approaching the MLB trade deadline. Keep an eye on MLB depth charts and usage patterns, especially in the bullpens. Read the trade rumors. Picking up potential trade replacements a week or two early could save valuable FAAB dollars. Many fantasy leagues also set their trade deadline around the same time. Take some time during the All-Star break to scour opposing rosters for some good deals. The best trades are the ones that benefit both teams.

Injuries

Note: Only players who have been officially placed on the IL as of 7/1 are included below. Players whose injuries are day-to-day and player on the Covid IL are not listed.

There are a few other players who are out for reasons other than injury. Reid Detmers, Cristian Pache, Josh Winder, Cal Mitchell, Ryan Feltner, Ezequiel Duran, Jose Siri, Jeter Downs, Sam Huff, Miguel Andujar, and Pavin Smith have all been recently demoted to AAA.

Good luck in July!