This Friday brings us a massive 13-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. As is often the case with these oversized slates, we have plenty of top-end pitching options, plenty of strong bats, and a lot of value on both sides of the ball that we can use to fill out our rosters. Much like any slate with Colorado home games, tonight’s tournaments may be decided by how you choose to handle Coors Field. We have two struggling pitchers facing off, which means the likelihood of 12+ runs is very real.
If you have any thoughts or recommendations for how we can better cover MLB DFS in 2023, reach out to us on Twitter or send me a message (@CableBoxScore). I’m always happy to talk a little DFS throughout the day, and let’s win some slates together! Let’s start by looking at weather issues for Friday as well as the best hitting and pitching environments on the main slate today.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for May 12
Today’s analysis covers the 13-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:05 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- Rain chances are expected to play a factor in the Houston Astros-Chicago White Sox game on Friday night.
- It is expected to be slightly cooler at Coors Field (low 50’s), so that could dampen offense somewhat.
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Coors Field
- Fenway Park
- Dodger Stadium
- Guaranteed Rate Field
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- Oakland Coliseum
- loanDepot Park
- Chase Field
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,200) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – It’s a toss-up on DraftKings between Strider against Toronto and Gerrit Cole against Tampa Bay. Strider may be $200 more expensive, but he has the slightly better matchup, the slightly better park, and has been a strikeout machine over his last three starts. He’s averaged over 10 per game in that span despite only pitching 18 innings across those three contests. The Blue Jays strike out 22% of the time against righties on the season.
Value Pitcher
J.P France ($7,600) vs. Chicago White Sox – J.P. France has one career major league start under his belt, but he was able to rack up five strikeouts in five innings without allowing a run to the Mariners last week. The White Sox are a free-swinging team, striking out 22.3% of the time against right-handers and they have the fourth-worst on-base percentage against that handedness this season (.297).
High-Dollar Infielder
Trea Turner ($5,800) vs. Austin Gomber – At home this season, Gomber allows a .352/.410./.667 slash line to opposing hitters, meaning he allows peak each batter to be peak Mike Trout on average this season. He has simply been atrocious this year with a 6.75 ERA and strikeouts under six per nine innings. The only bad thing about this matchup is that Gomber is likely be pulled before Turner can face him a third time on Friday.
Value Infielder
Ezequiel Tovar ($3,000) vs. Taijuan Walker – A huge spike in walk rate and home run rate for Walker this season has meant his ratios and effectiveness have fallen off a cliff. Now he has to take those struggles and travel to Coors Field where even his 52% ground ball rate can’t save him if he is still coughing up over two home runs per game. After a slow first month, Tovar is hitting .242/.286/.515 in May with two bombs, eight RBI, and a stolen base. For just $3,000 in this run explosion coming tomorrow, I’ll be all over him as much as possible.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Yordan Alvarez ($6,000) vs. Michael Kopech – Michael Kopech has basically been a nightmare this season after so much promise was flashed in his first couple of years. He walks more than five batters per game, allows almost three home runs per nine innings, and has an ERA that is approaching 6.00. As you might imagine, Alvarez is destroying right-handed pitching this season with a .386 OBP and .528 slugging percentage against them. In May, he has really hit his stride with a .594 slugging percentage and a .313 batting average.
Value Outfielder
Eddie Rosario ($2,800) vs. Chris Bassitt – Eddie Rosario is typically about as streaky a hitter as you can find, but he has been ultra-consistent lately and is really performing well against right-handers. He has an eight-game hitting streak going and also has a hit in 13 of his last 14 games. He is likely to bat fifth right after the hardest part of the Braves’ lineup and will be well-positioned to drive in plenty of runs with Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Matt Olson in front of him.
Best DraftKings Stack
Atlanta Braves vs. Chris Bassitt – This is not your father’s Chris Bassitt here in the early part of the 2023 season. Bassitt dazzled with Oakland and the New York Mets the last two seasons, but it has all fallen apart with his move to the AL East this year. The strikeouts have dropped below eight per nine innings. He is allowing 4.5 walks per nine innings, and his fly ball rate is up from 34% last year to 40% this year. That might be manageable in Citi Field or in the Oakland Coliseum, but not at Rogers Centre which is top-13 in the league in both homerun and doubles per Statcast data. Atlanta has the eighth-best slugging percentage against righties this season and they also walk more than 10% of the time.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($11,300) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Strider is likely the better option on FanDuel as well, especially after Cole got torched by these same Rays last time out. But there is a case to be made for the Yankees’ ace, so I will make it here. Before his struggles last game, Cole had six quality starts in his first seven games and only dropped below eight strikeouts on two occasions. Against right-handers, Tampa Bay actually strikes out more than Toronto and their walk rates are identical. There is just a $200 difference between the two studs on this site as well, so I would make sure you have exposure to both.
Value Pitcher
Logan Allen ($9,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels – The first two starts of Allen’s career were a thing of beauty. He pitched 11 innings, struck out 16 batters, and only allowed three total runs. He took a step back in his last start with only three punchouts and two walks, but still gave up just two runs to the Twins and pitched 5.2 innings. I’m counting on him getting back on track at home against the Angels, a team that has been known to provide some swings and misses. Against righties, the Angels strike out 23% of the time and ground out on more than 42% of their balls in play. If Allen can navigate the Trout-Ohtani gauntlet, it should be a nice quality start at a relative bargain.
High-Dollar Infielder
Marcus Semien ($4,300) vs. Ken Waldichuk – Marcus Semien blasted a home run on Thursday night and I wouldn’t be surprised to do it again against the weak lefty Waldichuk. The A’s lefty has an unreal 3.00 HR/9 ratio this season and his 7.25 ERA is a direct result. Against right-handers this year, Waldichuk allows a .320/.397/.633 line over 146 batters faced. He is so bad against them this year, we aren’t done seeing some of them later on down this list. This game between the Rangers and A’s is likely to get ugly very quickly tonight.
Value Infielder
C.J. Cron ($3,200) vs. Taijuan Walker – Why is Cron just $3,200 against Taijuan Walker at home? I really can’t tell you. His slash line is markedly better at Coors than on the road this season and Cron is actually less likely to strike out against right-handers than he is against left-handers this season. Cron has at least six FanDuel points in eight of his last 11 games but somehow is the 16th most expensive C/1B on Friday.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Adolis Garcia ($4,000) vs. Ken Waldichuk – If you’re the kind of person who likes to bet home run props, I would shop around for the best price on Garcia and drop a good chunk of change on that outcome. A power flyball hitter against one of the most homer-prone pitchers in the league just has the feeling that a bomb is coming. We know from above how bad Waldichuk is against right-handers, but Garcia has almost a .200 ISO against lefties in his career.
Value Outfielder
Charlie Blackmon ($3,200) vs. Taijuan Walker – Blackmon is now back to leading off against right-handers which means more plate appearance for him in this slugfest against Walker. In the month of May, Blackmon has been outstanding with a .269/.355/.423 line and a .340 wOBA go coincide with his promotion back to the top of the lineup. Blackmon has one game in his last seven where he hasn’t scored at least six fantasy points and I will be shocked if he is not on base a couple time on Friday night.
Best FanDuel Stack
Colorado Rockies vs. Taijuan Walker – Even though they may not be the best offensive group you can find on a night-by-night basis, when the Rockies are at home, they are simply on another level and remain way too cheap on FanDuel. Randal Grichuk is their most expensive piece at just $3,600, and seven of the nine regular hitters check in at $3,200 or below. You can easily fit all kinds of Rockies’ stacks in your lineups on Friday and it won’t break the bank. When they are at home, the Rockies have the fourth-highest on-base percentage and the seventh-highest slugging percentage of any team in the league. Against a struggling Taijuan Walker on Friday, I am much more on the side of go overweight on the Rockies than the side of fading them for other teams.