With another week down, let’s keep things going. We have another week of survivor picks on tap for you, so follow along. Let’s continue to sweat along with our survivor picks as we progress through the season. Aside from a resounding Detroit Lions loss on Thanksgiving, things went well with our picks in Week 12 checking in at 3-1.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 12 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 13 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
The Los Angeles Chargers are a frustrating team. They are coming off a home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in which they scored just 10 points, but this week they should find a lot less resistance. Los Angeles takes a three-game losing streak east this week into what accounts for a 10 AM start on the east coast against the New England Patriots.
In New England, the Chargers have an opponent that is underperforming more than they have been. Mac Jones is showing that he cannot be trusted as the quarterback of the future, or present, and Bradley Zappe is not a threat either. With just 194 passing yards per game for New England, the Chargers and their league-worst pass defense won’t be exploited too much this week.
Led by Justin Herbert and Aaron Ekeler, the Chargers do have a strong offense which puts them in a good position for the victory. They should be able to generate enough offense to break the 20-point mark this week, and it is highly unlikely the Patriots can compete with that. The fact that they are second worst in the league with just 13,5 points scored per game and they have a quarterback situation in flux; at best.
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
I don’t love targeting road teams, but at 3-3 this season, the Miami Dolphins hold their own away from home. Conversely, the Washington Commanders are just 1-4 at home this season, so there doesn’t appear to be an advantage here.
It is no secret that Washington has been struggling defensively, and the firing of their defensive coordinator certainly reflects that. While Sam Howell has done a solid job this season, he isn’t going to truly outscore anyone. At 20.5 points here game, he will keep the Commanders in the game, but that is about it. Expecting him to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa really is just not fair.
Ultimately, this comes down to the fact that the Dolphins have scored 30.8 points per game with the second-best offense in the league. They should face little resistance with Washington last in the league at 29 points per game allowed. Miami’s defense while not a strength, isn’t a weakness either which makes this a track meet Washington can’t win.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks
Dallas got a defensive coordinator fired after their prolific effort on Thanksgiving, and now they play on Thursday for the second straight week. Playing with Geno Smith not fully healthy, the Seattle Seahawks never had a chance last Thursday. Things will not get easier this week with Micah Parsons looming. Whether or not Kenneth Walker is able to return on a short week is also a question here, but I’m not sure it matters.
The Cowboys have the second-best defense in yards and are fourth-best in points allowed and undefeated at home this season with a 5-0 record. It is very difficult to miss Dallas’ point differential as it tells you all you need to know about why they are one of our survivor picks. While leading the league with 31.5 points per game, the Cowboys allow just 16.8. The Seahawks are not operating at 100% offensively, and they haven’t shown enough reasons why the Cowboys won’t be able to handle them.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Late in the season, our fate is put in the hands of teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars. To be fair though, the Jaguars are 8-3 and sit at the top of their division. They are far from a fluke, but this game does take a very turn with Jake Browning under center for the Cincinnati Bengals and not Joe Burrow.
Last week, Browning managed to put up just 10 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He threw for 227 yards with a touchdown and an interception while getting sacked four times. Even with Burrow for most of the season, the Bengals’ offense is in the bottom third of the league. They face a solid Jacksonville team this week that is looking to continue their winning ways. The Bengals are currently a team in disarray, and there is enough window for Jacksonville to take advantage of it.
Games to Fade
At this point in the season, everything has to be under consideration. There are large spreads that we are truly staying away from with our survivor picks in Week 13.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Jacksonville
Line 2
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas
Line 3
San Francisco, Dallas, Miami
Line 4
Los Angeles Chargers
Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty