We are in Week 16 of the NFL schedule. I can’t believe how this season just flew by. If you are in the fantasy football playoffs congratulations, this week is the semi-finals in most leagues. If you have lost and are out of contention you can play DFS right through the end of the season.
Whether you are in the playoffs or playing DFS one thing holds true this time of the season. You want to have players in your lineup on teams that are playing for something in the NFL. Teams that are playing for playoff spots, playoff seeding, positions in the league next season, and division titles. Players on NFL teams that are competing for something this time of year are usually the players that lead you to Fantasy Football glory.
If you celebrate, have a Merry Christmas! Good luck this weekend.
It’s time to dive into Money Makers and Heart Breakers for the Week 16 NFL DFS Main Slate. And don’t forget, you can also use these insights as sit/start advice for your weekly lineups.
Week 16 NFL DFS Picks
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield – The Buccaneers are playing the Jaguars in Week 16. The Jaguars have given up multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in 5 of the last 6 games. As a matter of fact, the Jaguars give up the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Both the Jaguars and the Buccaneers are playing to win their respective divisions, so a lot is on the line. Before you start the “that’s not enough, Mayfield isn’t good talk,” Baker has 7 touchdowns in the last 2 games. He has been on fire leading this team as of late. If you are betting on this game take the over.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel
Nick Mullens – In his first full start of the season last week against the Bengals Mullens passed for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Week 16 he gets to play against the Lions. The Lions give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 243 yards passing and a total of 2 touchdowns per game against the Lions. This is another game where both teams want to win. The Vikings are playing for a potential playoff spot, and the Lions want to maintain their first-round bye.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Joe Flacco – Flacco has had this extremely high volume of passes over his three starts. He averages just under 45 passes a game. In 2 out of his 3 starts, he has passed for over 300 yards, and he has multiple touchdowns in all 3 games. This is also the type of game I love this time of year as the Browns are playing for a playoff spot and the Texans are playing to potentially win the division. To top it all off the Texans are a bottom 10 team at defending the pass. Big things are coming for Flacco in Week 16.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$7,100 on FanDuel
Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 16
Jared Goff
$6,900 on DraftKings
$7,800 on FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence
$6,600 on DraftKings
$7,900 on FanDuel
Justin Fields
$7,100 on DraftKings
$8,300 on FanDuel
Running Backs
Aaron Jones – I don’t know about you but Joens really let me down this season with injury problems. Well, He looked healthy in Week 15. Jones ran for 53 yards and caught 4 passes for another 16 yards. In Week 16 the Packers will play the Panthers. The Panthers do not defend running backs well. They give up a total of 120 combined yards and 2 touchdowns per game to running backs. You will want to play A-A-Ron Jones in Week 16.
$6,400 on DraftKings
$6,700 on FanDuel
Breece Hall – Hall has suffered through 6 straight games of tough defenses. That changes for him in Week 16. The Jets will play the Commanders who give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. I understand any apprehension here to play Hall as it’s been a roller coaster ride. Hear me out, the Roller Coaster was down last week, but it’s going up this week. The matchup is just too good to pass up.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,400 on FanDuel
James Conner – The Cardinals play the Bears in Week 16. The Bears are actually pretty good against running backs. This is more of the Cardinals’ skill position tree doesn’t seem to have too many branches on it right now. James Conner and Trey McBride combined for 27 of the total touches for the Cardinals in Week 15. That was 48% of the receptions and carries between the two of them. Conner will be a high-volume touch player in Week 16. I like the volume. Conner has 42 touches in the last 2 games, producing 194 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Turn it up, turn, turn it up. Turn up the volume.
$7,300 on DraftKings
$8,800 on FanDuel
Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 16
Tyjae Spears
$4,700 on DraftKings
$5,400 on FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard
$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,400 on FanDuel
Raheem Mostert
$5,900 on DraftKings
$5,400 on FanDuel
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans – Evans has been consistent and good all season. As mentioned earlier the Buccaneers have something to play for in Week 16 and have a nice match up against the Jaguars. Wide receivers average 12 receptions, 163 yards, and a touchdown against the Jaguars weekly. Evans has a 25% target share on the Buccaneers and 41% of the air yards. Evans already has 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season, he will build on that in Week 16.
$7,600 on DraftKings
$8,700 on FanDuel
Garrett Wilson – Willson essentially is the passing game for the Jets. Wilson has a 30% target share and 45% of the air yards for the Jets this season. In Week 16 the Jets get to play the Commanders. The Commanders give up the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Primary wide receivers have been torching this defense. I feel better about this if Zach Wilson is in the lineup believe it or not, but Wilson should produce no matter who is starting at quarterbacks.
$5,800 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Jordan Addison – In Week 15 Addison saw 6 targets from Nick Mullens. Addison turned that into 6 receptions for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Week 16 the Vikings play the Lions, who we have already identified as a team that doesn’t defend the pass well. This game has a nice over-under of 47 points. It will be played in a dome. I like the idea of a track meet where Vikings and Lions wide receivers carry me to fantasy goodness. Yes, that means stack it up and run it back with Amon-Ra St. Brown.
$6,000 on DraftKings
$6,100 on FanDuel
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 16
Calvin Ridley
$6,300 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown
$8,200 on DraftKings
$8,600 on FanDuel
DK Metcalf
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,600 on FanDuel
Tight Ends
Evan Engram – Do you know who leads the Jaguars in target share? That would be Engram with a 22% target share. Engram also has an 81% catch rate. In the last 3 games, Engram has 27 targets. He also has 3 touchdowns. That includes his down week in Week 15. In Week 16 the Jaguars play the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. In the past 2 games, a tight end has had 57 yards and a touchdown in each game against the Buccaneers. Look for Engram to score in Week 16.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,300 on FanDuel
Trey McBride – I already mentioned that the Cardinals offense has literally been passing through Trye McBride and James Conner. In the past three games, McBride has not seen less than 9 targets. He has a total of 29 targets during that span. Last week McBride’s line looked like this, 11 targets, 10 receptions, 102 yards. Look for McBride to continue this type of volume against the Bears in Week 16. The best part of this is, the Bears stink at defending tight ends. Last week David Njoku lit them up for 104 yards and a touchdown.
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
David Njoku – I just mentioned this guy above for how he played last week. Well, Njoku has another good matchup in Week 16 against the Texans. The Texans give up the ninth most points to opposing tight ends. But I am not sure that would matter because Flacco has really been targeting Njoke heavily the past couple of games. 22 targets, 16 receptions, 195 yards, and 3 touchdowns over the last two games for Njoku. That is a 25% target, 35% of the receiving yards, and 60% of the touchdowns in the past two games. Another great volume play in Week 16. David is not Njokuing around. ( I couldn’t help but use that again)
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,600 on FanDuel
Other Tight Ends DFS Picks for Week 16
TJ Hockenson
$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel
Logan Thomas
$3,500 on DraftKings
$4,900 on FanDuel
Jake Ferguson
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,000 on FanDuel
Defense
Commanders – OK, let’s face it, this defense isn’t all that good. But they are playing the Jets in Week 16. The Jets give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Defenses average 13 points per game against the Jets. Teams average 4 sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery against the Jets weekly. Look for the Commanders to stumble and bumble their way to 8 to 10 fantasy points this week.
$3,700 on DraftKings
$3,800 on FanDuel
Jets –You know who else lets defenses score fantasy points weekly, yes you do that would be the Commanders. In 3 of the last 4 games the team’s defenses have scored 12 or more fantasy points against the Commanders. The Jets are a pretty good real-life defense. They will get after the quarterback in this game and make some things happen. I expect a really ugly game.
$3,100 on DraftKings
$5,000 on FanDuel
Texans – The Texans have 11 sacks in the past 2 games. They are getting after it and this defense is surprisingly scrappy. The Browns have been a little better since Flacco stepped in at quarterback but still give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing defenses. In Week 15 the Bears defense managed 17 fantasy points against the Browns.
$3,600 on DraftKings
$4,000 on FanDuel
Week 16 Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End
💔Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell – The Commanders play the Jets in Week 16. The Jets give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Only 2 quarterbacks have topped 20 fantasy points against the Jets this season. Howell will have to pass because it is what the Commanders do, but don’t look for much here. Mr. Howell will have to take Lovey on a 3-hour tour after this one.
Jordan Love – The Panthers are the toughest defense against the pass in the NFL. At least for fantasy purposes. It is partly because you can run all over them. They funnel you to the run and teams happily oblige. This is a week to pack it in on Love and the passing game for Green Bay.
Case Keenum – The Texans play the Browns in Week 16. The Browns are one of the stingiest defenses against the pass in the league. I would feel different about the Texans passing game if CJ Stroud was healthy but I can’t see Keenum having huge success in Week 16.
Running Backs
Ty Chandler – Chandler looked amazing in Week 15. In Week 16 the Vikings play the Lions. Only 5 running backs have had double-digit fantasy days against the Lions all season. Part of this is game script as you will need to score some points and part of this is the Lions’ defense defends the run well. Sorry to burst your bubble if you were excited about Chandler for Week 16. He holds more value in DraftKings than FanDuel for Week 16.
Any Colts Running Back – The Falcons give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. The Colts get to play the Falcons in Week 16. Jonathan Taylor might play; he also might not play. Trey Sermon might get the start, but he also might not get the start. Look, the situation stinks, The matchup is tough and the Colts will be passing the ball against this pass funnel defense.
David Montgomery – Look at that, don’t run it back. The Lions are playing the Vikings. Both of these teams are top 10 against the run. If Monty gets involved in the pass game or the Lions get up big he won’t break your heart. But this game looks like it has shoot-out potential in a dome. I Would bet on the pass catchers more in Week 16. Not the full Monty this week.
Wide Receivers
Curtis Samuel – The Commanders play the Jets as stated earlier. The Jets are literally the best team at defending wide receivers in 2023. Samuel will be involved because he does so many things. Outside of the Dolphins only 6 wide receivers have double-digit fantasy scores this week. The Dolphins had another 3. Not a good week to be Samuel. I would lean towards Terry McLaurin if I were to play a Commanders wide receiver this week.
Nico Collins – Collins has logged limited practice this week. He has a heel injury. On top of that Case Keenum will be playing quarterback for the Texans. Nico will also be playing against the team that gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, the Browns. Nothing and I mean nothing about Week 16 makes me feel good about playing Nico Collins anywhere.
Jayden Reed – Jayden Reed is the guy the Packers have been looking for at wide receiver. If he is to get it done in week 16 it will be running the ball. Which is something he does on occasion. The Panthers are up this week and they give up the fourth fewest points to wide receivers. Only 1 wideout has surpassed 12 fantasy points since Week 7 against the Panthers. The Packers will run and run and run some more in Week 16.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz – Schultz is healthy and back in the lineup at just the right time to have amazingly tough fantasy matchups. The Browns give up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. The Texans have a backup quarterback and that might actually end up helping Schultz but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Tucker Kraft – Kraft was such a great play in Week 15. But that was Week 15 and this is Week 16. We all know the Panthers aren’t a very good football team. Yet here I am again telling you how yet another position involved in the passing game struggles against the Panthers. The Panthers are top 5 at defending tight ends. Pack it up pack it in, let me begin. The Packers came to win and passing against the Panthers is a sin.
Cole Kmet – The Bears will play the Cardinals in Week 16. The Cardinals defend tight ends well. The Cardinals are a top 5 team against the tight end position. Kmet will need a touchdown to produce. You are probably playing him in season-long but avoid at all costs in DFS.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from Fantrax, follow us on X and @MikeReedyFF for more great content