I hope everyone continues to be profitable playing NFL DFS even if the math says that’s impossible. Regardless, last week is in the past and we have a new week of action in front of us. I intend to help you make the Wild Card round of NFL DFS a week to remember as you finish in the green. With that being said, let us jump right into my top Wild Card round DFS picks. Now that we are in the postseason, it becomes a very different game. This week, we have 12 teams that are active, so the player pool is compressed.
Each week, I will take a look at one option at each position that can be a nice piece in your lineup. Additionally, I will provide one stud and one value option to target along with one expected bust.
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NFL Week 18 DFS Picks
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, $6,500
If you are into playing the revenge game angle, then this one is for you. The Lions decided they were done with Matthew Stafford, and cast him aside for Jared Goff, and now he heads back to Detroit. The stakes are high and the veteran is sure to be motivated.
The fact that the Detroit Lions are allowing the third-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks also works in our favor. These two factors point us towards a reasonably priced Stafford in a game where weather will not be an issue. Stafford finished just shy of 4,000 yards this season while throwing 24 touchdowns in what was a solid year.
Running Back
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Pirates, $5,400
Between the emergence of Jaylen Warren and Harris’ own struggles, confidence was suffering in Najee Harris. His performance did warrant such a reaction, but Pittsburgh has been leaning on him as of late. With back-to-back games of over 100 rushing yards, Harris finished with 1,065 yards on the season. He has also found the end zone eight times.
Four of those touchdowns came in the last three games as Pittsburgh really focused on Harris. He carried the ball 72 times in the last weeks and gained 312 yards. Additionally, he also caught five passes last week.
The conditions this week will likely guide things towards the ground game. Pittsburgh will look to control the game, and that will require them to lean on Harris once again.
Wide Receiver
Devonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles, $6,700
With A.J. Brown out this week, the Eagles will be leaning heavily on Devonta Smith. Smith is in a great spot against a Tampa Bay team that struggles against opposing wide receivers. That is good news as we expect Smith to be heavily targeted.
It was another strong season for Smith as he broke the 1,000-yard mark (1,066) while catching 81 passes. Smith is always a big play threat and he finished with seven touchdowns. He will get all the targets he can handle this week.
Tight End
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns, $5,600
David Njoku continues to emerge as a strong contributor this season. The move to Joe Flacco under center has paid vast dividends for Njoku as the veteran continues to look his way.
There are opportunities to save some salary cap space at the position, but they don’t share Njoku’s consistency and upside. In his last four weeks, prior to being rested in Week 18, Njoku finished the year off on a high note. In that stretch, Njoku finished with 28 receptions (no less than six in a game) for 373 yards. In two of those games, Njoku broke the century mark. Additionally, four of his six touchdowns on the season came in three of those games. This is finally the emergence we were waiting for from him.
Defense
Miami Dolphins, $2,800
The Kansas City Chiefs are not the offense they once were. Opposing defenses have found some success against the Chiefs this season. The Miami Dolphins should be no different this week, and the weather conditions will help to limit the scoring.
Additionally, the Dolphins have shown the ability to make things happen this season. With 15 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries, turnovers aren’t a problem. When you factor in 56 sacks, the potential for additional points is there.
DFS Stud
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, $8,000
There is going to be a lot of offense in Detroit, and Amon-Ra St. Brown figures to be in the midst of most of it. It was another strong season out of St. Brown as he continues to show strong chemistry with Jared Goff under center.
St. Brown averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game this year while catching 119 passes and 10 touchdowns. With nine games of at least 100 receiving yards, St. Brown was also quite consistent which makes him a strong target.
DFS Value
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills, $3,400
With Gabe Davis out this week, Khalil Shakir steps forward and into a larger role. In flashes, we have seen what Shakir is capable of when given the chance, and that will be the case on Sunday. He is a big play threat and Josh Allen has never been afraid to look his way.
After catching six passes for 105 yards to close out the season, Shakir finished with 611 receiving yards on 39 receptions. The main culprit here is lack of a consistency role, but that shouldn’t be a problem this week.
DFS Bust
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins, $8,700
I am well aware that this may be an overreaction to the weather. However, these are extreme conditions that the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa are not accustomed to. This is simply too risky given the cost.