Dynasty Football: Three Offenses to Sell in 2024

Entering the year, the Denver Broncos were buzzing. Yes, the first year of Russell Wilson was a disappointment but the addition of head coach Sean Payton was supposed to bring in a new wave of success. It was much needed for the Broncos after they experienced, according to Payton, “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.”

Of course, most would be of the opinion that throwing in the towel while in playoff contention would qualify as one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. You know, like Payton and the Broncos did this past year in benching Wilson for obvious contractual reasons rather than the “football reasons” they kept claiming.

But there was certainly hype that Sean Payton would bring in a New Orleans-esque offense. As a result, there were stock-ups across the board for players like Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.

Of course, as we all know now, the Broncos were a roller coaster. Sutton and Jeudy experienced the slightest of upticks this year. Wilson, while markedly more efficient, lost value for a second consecutive year.

All to say, you can’t put too much stock into preseason predictions. While you should be thinking about getting shares in good offenses, it’s tough to decipher which ones are going to be great. So if there’s hype running around about the next big thing, it might be time to sell, sell, sell.

Three Offenses to Sell in 2024

Los Angeles Chargers

Surprisingly, this hiring cycle for coaches brought in more defensive names than offensive names. Brian Callahan and Dave Canales certainly have the chops to elevate the Titans and Panthers respectively. Still, I don’t think either spot is being hyped up for next year.

The Titans may be rolling with Will Levis after he excelled in his audition this past year. But there’s hardly enough tape or evidence that would suggest he’s a quarterback the public is in love with. As for the Panthers, Bryce Young has unfortunately put up plenty of tape and evidence that he is just not the answer for an NFL franchise.

So, sure, if there are people who are buying into these offenses being transformed, I’d make a sale. But let’s take a look at one of the most hyped hires of the cycle in Jim Harbaugh, a former NFL quarterback who is more CEO than game planner these days.

While Justin Herbert dealt with injuries, there’s no denying that he disappointed fantasy managers. While Herbert still piled on the yards in 2022, there were concerning tendencies with how often he would check down and his general aversion to deploying the deep ball.

Kellen Moore was brought in as a celebrated game planner and expected to open things up. It didn’t happen.

It might be time to accept that the gunslinging Herbert of 2021 is no more. That might actually make for a better QB in the long run but it has dampened his fantasy upside.

Add on another year of age to Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, and there are a lot of reasons to expect this offense to be even less inspiring. Don’t buy the Harbaugh hype. This is an offense to sell.

San Francisco 49ers

You either believe in Brock Purdy or you don’t. Those are the two camps available in San Francisco, so it’s better to choose one now and accept that you will either be receiving or handing out the “I told you so.”

For those of you who believe, this is just another hatchet job for Mr. Irrelevant to gobble up as he makes his way back to the Super Bowl. But the concerns for the 49ers offense go beyond whether Purdy can continue to do what he’s been doing.

The 49ers offensive line last year was an absolute mess. Aside from Trent Williams and backup guard Jon Feliciano, the entire offensive line had PFF grades of 65.1 and lower. And this was with good health and continuity on the line all year.

While this would imply that there is room to grow here, the problem is that Williams continues to get older. He turns 36 this year, and will eventually stop being able to anchor this line. Factor in extremely high usage for Christian McCaffery last year, and San Francisco’s 4th rank rushing attack may take a hit. If it does, this will be an offense to sell.

After all, the last time CMC had 300+ touches in a year, he proceeded to spend the next three campaigns playing in less than 8 games. The ripple effect on this offense may mean it’s time to move on from the likes of the touchdown-dependent George Kittle or the suddenly surging Brandon Aiyuk.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings remain the odds-on favorite to sign Kirk Cousins. That’s great. Those odds are set at +350 though. Not so great.

The general consensus remains that he and the Vikings will figure something out. The likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison certainly are priced that way. But let’s consider that Vegas thinks those odds are less than 30%. With that being the case, there might be a price discrepancy.

Minnesota doesn’t have the draft capital to land one of the top quarterback options from college. They might have cap space if they don’t have Cousins in the fold, but the other free agent options are less than inspiring.

And even if Cousins comes back, we have to factor in the potential that he is not the same player. Achilles injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from. Speed might not be Kirk’s calling card, but being even more of a statue doesn’t help. And if he reinjures it, a possibility that Cam Akers unfortunately experienced just this year, that’ll be just about it for Cousins.

Any way you look at it, the future of the quarterback position is murky for the Minnesota Vikings. Davante Adams has certainly shown that elite talent can survive even in the worst of circumstances, so this isn’t a full-throated call to sell Jefferson. After all, he was pretty successful last year even with the Cousins injury on a per game basis.

But Addison might not be in position to build off a very successful rookie year. Likewise, it might be a stretch for T.J. Hockensen to repeat as well with the return of Jefferson. Sell what you can, especially if hype over a Kirk Cousins return starts to build.