It seems like just yesterday, the NFL season was getting started. We are now at Week 12 and continuing to go strong. All we can try and do is hang on, be consistent with our process, and make the best possible choice. One area where the NFL never fails to deliver is when it comes to drama and intrigue. That is showing no sings of slowing down, so let’s just keep the fun rolling. With a new week upon us, let’s keep the success going. With no more time to waste, let’s jump right into our Week 12 NFL Survivor Picks.
How Did We Do in Week 11?
Where was this level of success in the early weeks of the season? To say things were stressful and in flux would be an understatement. We never know when the drama and upsets will come to a close, so let’s enjoy it while it lasts. To that point, we continue to look for games, and favorites, to fade. For the second straight week though, that is where we came up short. While our four picks were perfect, fading the Green Bay Packers only came close to being a good recommendation. While the Chicago Bears gave it a good effort, the Packers ultimately were victorious by the smallest margin possible.
That level of intrigue was not seen otherwise. The Miami Dolphins easily defended their home field as they dispatched the Las Vegas Raiders with ease. However, that defeat paled in comparison to Detroit’s 52-6 home victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Houston Texans had similar success against Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys. In Dallas a piece of the room falling off before the game was a precursor to have the night would go for the home team. While it might not have been the most exciting game, the Minnesota Vikings handled the Tennessee Titans with a 10-point victory.
Now, all we have to do is repeat that success in Week 12 with our survivor picks.
Check out all of our Week 12 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Week 12 NFL Survivor Picks
There is no reason to stop now. From a picks perspective, it’s only going to get more difficult from here. Presumably, you have already selected 11 teams, and then there are six teams on bye this week. That leaves us with some maneuvering to do, but the good news is that there are still some options to choose from. While not listed below as we have used them across all lines, the Kansas City Chiefs should, once again, be on your radar. They are coming off their first loss of the season, but it did come in Buffalo. Their landing spot this week is a lot less stressful as they are favored by 11 points in Carolina against the Panthers.
Each week, we’ll continue to pick four games to target along with one that we are fading. They will be ranked in order of our preference along with the lines that we hope to see building off each other each week. Let’s jump right into those survivor picks. Things are also becoming more difficult as some of our options have already been utilized. That means our first choice might not be necessarily available.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts – Lions -7
Anthony Richardson returned last week for the Colts and led them to victory. We do have to add the caveat that it came against the Jets, and New York lost the game as much, if not more than Indianapolis won it. While Richardson continues to show flashes of talent, he’s also the same quarterback that was recently benched for Joe Flacco.
Detroit’s defense isn’t going to make it easy for Richardson as they are fifth-best scoring defense allowing 17.7 points per game. The Lions also limit opposing offenses to the fewest first downs at a rate of just 30.4%. On offense is where the Lions truly shine. Led by Jared Goff and the two-headed running back of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Detroit is scoring the most points per game at 33.4. Indianapolis’ defense is average at best and the Lions are simply too good.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders – Broncos -6
At the beginning of the season, this was not a pick I ever thought I’d be making. Instead, the Raiders are in the midst of a six-game losing streak and the Broncos were a blocked field goal away from ending Kansas City’s undefeated season.
Bo Nix has emerged as a strong option at quarterback with 14 touchdown passes against just six interceptions on the season. The rookie continues to make the plays needed to win games as Denver competes for a Wild Card berth. We have seen the evolution of Nix throughout the season as he also benefits from one of the best defenses in the league. Denver is allowing the third-fewest points per game at just 16.6 which has eliminated some of the pressure on Nix. Las Vegas’ defense is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, and Nix shouldn’t meet much resistance. With an average of 18.7 points scored, the Raiders’ offense is not in a position to bail out their defense.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans – Texans -7.5
This is the case of two teams that are heading in opposite directions. While the Texans have found their franchise quarterback in CJ Stroud, Tennessee is back to the drawing board. Will Levis is not proving to be the answer as the Titans have struggled to do much of anything on offense. They rank in the bottom portion of the league in just about all offensive categories, and scoring 17 points per game isn’t going to cut it. The unfortunate fact is that while the Titans’ defense is strong from a yardage-allowed perspective, they rank 26th with 26.3 points allowed.
Houston is coming off a resounding defeat of the Dallas Cowboys in which Joe Mixon continued to build on his successful season. Mixon should, once again, control the tempo of the game for Houston. Stroud has been infinitely better at home than on the road this season, and he should have another strong week. The Texans defense has had success this season as well and they should make things difficult for Levis.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys – Commanders -10
There is no way to sugarcoat how bad the Cowboys really are. They have no semblance of a running game and Cooper Rush has not been able to generate anything offensively.
Washington is entering the week on a two-game losing streak after two tough games against the Steelers and Eagles. Since they played last Thursday, the Commanders have a few extra days off compared to the Cowboys who played on Monday. That advantage pushes us closer to Jayden Daniels and Washington. Playing at home as been fruitful for the Commanders as they look to improve on their 4-1 record.
Fade
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants – Buccaneers -6
Both teams are returning from their bye week and the home team has a new quarterback. The Giants have, once again, turned back to Tommy DeVito to give their season some semblance of excitement. Tampa Bay is getting Mike Evans back and this should be a game that they win with limited problems. However, playing at home and after your bye week with a new quarterback can sometimes lead to interesting things taking place. There are plenty of other options this week that this can be avoided.
Line 1
Houston/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Buffalo/Detroit/Cincinnati/Los Angeles Chargers/Miami/Washington
Line 2
Washington/Atlanta/Los Angeles Rams/Kansas City/Philadelphia/Baltimore/Detroit/Houston
Line 3
Houston/Washington/Baltimore/Kansas City/Buffalo/Minnesota/Denver
Line 4
Tampa Bay/Cincinnati/Denver/Baltimore/Kansas City/Houston/Detroit
Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!