It was another 2-1 finish for me in last week’s NFL player props column. That has been the norm more often than not, and that is just fine with me. The goal is to stack winning weeks together, and that has happened consistently this season. Overall I am 22-13 for the season. But there are still several weeks to go before we can start counting our money. So let’s get to this week’s slate. Below are three of my favorite Week 13 NFL player props. Numbers and prices are subject to change, so make sure you shop for the most advantageous lines. And as always, use your discretion and tail (or fade) responsibly.
NFL Week 13 Player Props
Tank Dell 50+ Receiving Yards (-122, FanDuel)
My first Week 13 NFL player prop is a bet on Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. I am picking Dell to record at least 50 receiving yards when Houston faces the Jacksonville Jaguars. The pricing on this prop is interesting, and another great example of why you should always shop around. Dell’s receiving yardage number is anywhere between 49.5 and 53.5 depending on which sportsbook you are using. But even though ESPNBet has the lowest number at 49.5, the price for the over is -130. FanDuel has Dell’s receiving yardage prop at 51.5 yards. However, the price for Dell to record at least 50 receiving yards is -122, making this my preferred way to attack this prop.
Dell has had mixed results concerning this number. He has recorded at least 50 receiving yards five times in 11 games this season. But he has picked up his production lately, hitting this mark in three of his last four games. That stretch coincided with the season-ending injury to Stefon Diggs. The recent return of top wideout Nico Collins has not hindered Dell. Dell has 54 and 72 receiving yards in two games since Collins’ return. Dell gets a favorable matchup versus a Jaguars defense that ranks last in the league in DVOA and EPA versus the pass. Jacksonville’s preferred defensive scheme also lends itself to Dell having a big day on Sunday.
Jacksonville plays man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. However, they are one of the worst in the league yards per coverage snap allowed when they are in this look. Jacksonville’s top four cornerbacks have combined to allow 47 receptions for 657 yards on 70 targets when playing man coverage. This should play to Dell’s strengths. The second-year wideout averages 2.33 yards per route run versus man coverage this year. That is nearly double his 1.19 YPRR against zone coverage. Considering Dell’s recent results and the favorable matchup, I expect him to have at least 50 receiving yards in Week 13.
Bucky Irving OVER 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-117, BetRivers)
I played Bucky Irving to exceed his rushing yardage line last week, and he came through in the clutch. Part of the reason I liked him last week was that I suspected Irving was in line to take over Tampa Bay’s backfield. The results last week seemed to confirm my suspicions. Irving was on the field for 34 snaps, compared to 32 for Rachaad White. It was the most snaps Irving has played in a game in which White has played, while White’s snap count was a season-low. Irving earned a career-high 18 touches and certainly made the most of his opportunities. The rookie finished the day with 152 yards from scrimmage. We only need Irving to get half as many yards this week to cash this prop. That has been Irving’s baseline when he touches the ball at least a dozen times.
Irving has earned at least 12 touches in a game six times this season. He has registered at least 77 scrimmage yards all six times. More importantly, five of those instances have come in Tampa Bay’s last six games. Based on what we have seen from the rookie this year, there is no reason to expect Irving to be less involved this week. Irving is one of 32 players with at least 100 total carries this season. Among that set of players, Irving ranks fifth in yards per carry, second in avoided tackles per carry, and eighth in percentage of explosive runs. Explosive runs are defined as rushes of 10 or more yards. As long as he gets a bulk of the backfield work, Irving should surpass this scrimmage yardage total. I haven’t even touched on Irving’s matchup yet, but it is about as good as it gets.
Tampa Bay will face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Carolina ranks dead last in the NFL in defensive DVOA versus the run. The Panthers are allowing an average of 162.8 scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs. They are last in adjusted line yards per carry allowed and rank 31st in EPA per play on the ground. 10 of the 12 running backs who have earned at least 15 touches versus Carolina have surpassed this yardage number. The exceptions were Javonte Williams and Gus Edwards. Neither of those backs registered an explosive run in their games against the Panthers. I do not expect Irving to suffer a similar fate. In the unlikely event that Irving struggles on the ground, we have increased volume as a receiver as a fallback option. This is one of my favorite Week 13 NFL player props.
Courtland Sutton OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Bet365)
There are several similarities between this pick and the earlier Tank Dell pick. Like Dell, Courtland Sutton gets a Week 13 matchup against a team known for deploying man coverage at a high rate. The Cleveland Browns play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. And as is the case with Jacksonville, Cleveland often struggles in that coverage. The Browns are allowing 8.2 yards per target and 13 yards per reception when playing man coverage. Both of those marks are among the worst in the league. Cleveland also ranks 28th in DVOA when defending opposing number-one wide receivers. Sutton has been outstanding versus man coverage all year. His 2.57 yards per route run is 16th among 89 wide receivers with at least 10 targets versus man coverage. Sutton also enters Week 13 as one of the hottest wideouts in the NFL.
The veteran wide receiver has developed quite the rapport with Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix in recent weeks. Sutton has at least six receptions and 70 receiving yards in five straight games. This is easily the most productive stretch of Sutton’s seven-year NFL career. Before this five-game run, Sutton had played in 88 NFL games in his career. He had never had six or more receptions in three straight games, much less five. And he had never registered 70 receiving yards in more than three consecutive games at any point. I am going to ride the hot hand of Courtland Sutton in this matchup. A few sportsbooks (most notably FanDuel) have yet to post Sutton props for Monday night. But I think this is a fair number and price, so I am willing to jump on it now.