In this series, I look at dynasty football values and which players are rising and falling. While dynasty managers are in it for the long haul, it doesn’t mean that their opinions aren’t swung from week to week by good or bad fantasy performances. I will attempt to get an early read on the pulse of the Dynasty Community to see where players’ values are moving.
Feel free to comment or reach out to me on Twitter/X at (@jtorange) with any comments, insightful nuggets or questions.
Week 14 Dynasty Football Risers
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
There was a lot of debate about whether Bo Nix would be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft in 2024 after playing five years in college. After a forgettable three years at Auburn, Nix transferred to Oregon and excelled as one of the best quarterbacks in the country during his last two years there. In his final season in Eugene, Nix completed 77.4% of his passes for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, and three interceptions in 14 games.
The Denver Broncos and head coach Sean Payton were sold on Nix from the beginning and chose him with the 12th pick in the first round with Payton proclaiming Nix was who they were targeting all along. He was the sixth quarterback to be selected in the top half of the first round.
Nix came into camp and almost immediately grabbed the starting job for the Broncos. The season didn’t get off to a great start for Denver or Nix. They both started slow. Nix threw for 660 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions in the first four games of the season as the Broncos got off to a 2-2 start. Since then, Nix has been on fire, throwing for 2,182 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions in nine games. Denver is also 6-3 in that span and is currently 8-5 on the season and the Broncos areholding onto the final playoff spot in the AFC.
That success has helped Nix’s value to go up and up in the last few weeks. Nix is starting to remind people of a young Drew Brees under Payton in New Orleans. That type of comparison gets fantasy owners excited as Brees was one of the all-time great NFL quarterbacks and fantasy performers. With the Broncos in playoff contention, and things coming together for their young QB, fantasy owners are hopeful that this could be a match made in heaven and can bring fantasy rewards for years to come.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Before the season, Cade Otton was one of my tight ends to watch this season. He was my pick of a tight end ranked outside the top 20 that could end up in the top 10 in fantasy scoring at the position this season.
After a productive rookie season, Otton continued to improve in his second season. He had some big games to end the year. Quarterback Baker Mayfield looked more confident going to Otton in big situations. He was a go-to player in the playoffs. Otton finished 2023 with 47 catches for 455 yards and four touchdowns, but he really turned it on in the Buccaneers’ two playoff games. Otton had 13 catches on 19 targets for 154 yards and one touchdown in the postseason.
Otton is breaking out in his third year in the league out of UCLA. He is currently TE9 in fantasy football in PPR scoring this season according to Fantasy Pros. Otton has 54 receptions for 506 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games. All career highs.
Otton has been a big part of the offense this season, especially since wide receiver Chris Godwin went down with a season-ending injury. He has the fifth most targets (80) among tight ends in the league this year.
Otton has jumped from an ADP of 230 in September to an ADP of 119 in November according to DLF.com. He should be considered a top 10-15 dynasty tight end moving forward.
Check out all of our Week 14 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Fallers
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Three years ago, Trevor Lawrence was coming out of Clemson as one of the most heralded and accomplished quarterbacks in college football in the last two decades. He was labeled as a can’t-miss prospect after being the top-rated quarterback coming out of high school and then leading Clemson to a National Championship his freshman season. Lawrence finished his college career with a record of 38-2 and set almost every Clemson passing record including throwing for more than 10,000 yards and 90 touchdowns in three seasons.
He was drafted number one overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The expectations were through the roof for Lawrence. But during his rookie year, everything went wrong.
Jacksonville hired former Florida and Ohio State coach Urban Meyer before the season. It was a colossal failure. He was fired after just 13 games into his NFL coaching career.
In Lawrence’s second season, Jacksonville hired Doug Pederson, who had won a Super Bowl with the Eagles in 2017. Lawrence and the Jaguars saw a vast improvement. A year after finishing as the league’s worst team, again, Jacksonville won the AFC South and made the playoffs. Lawrence’s stock continued to rise after orchestrating a monster comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. The Jaguars came back from a 27-0 first half deficit to win 31-30. Jacksonville lost to the Chiefs in the next round.
That was supposed to be the jumping-off point for Lawrence and the Jaguars, but is hasn’t worked out that way. Lawrence led Jacksonville to an 8-3 record to start the next season, but injuries to Lawrence and a late-season collapse saw the team finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs.
This season has been a disaster from the start. The Jaguars are 2-10 and tied for the worst record in the league. Lawrence was just put on injured reserve and his season is over. He took a massive hit on a dirty play from the Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Lawrence was sliding and took a shot to the helmet. Lawrence suffered a concussion. He was already dealing with an AC joint injury that had caused him to miss multiple weeks of practice. After the concussion, the team decided it was time to have surgery on the shoulder, basically ending his season.
Lawrence still has plenty of ability, but the shine is starting to come off a bit from the former golden boy. Lawrence has multiple 4,000-yard passing seasons and a career-high of 25 touchdowns but has struggled with turnovers throughout his professional career. He signed a five-year, $275 million extension in the offseason, so he isn’t going anywhere, anytime soon. But his value is now dropping amongst dynasty owners. Some fantasy owners are looking to unload him. Lawrence had an ADP as high as 59 in 1QB leagues in February of 2023 but has dipped to 156 as of November 2024 according to DLF.com. If you are still a believer, now is the time to pounce and offer up a trade for the former top pick.
Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Mayer came out of Notre Dame as a highly-touted prospect. He was expected to make an impact early in his career after being selected near the top of the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He had a pretty quiet rookie season finishing with 27 catches for 304 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games.
Then something unexpected happened, the Raiders selected Georgia’s do-everything tight end Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick of the NFL Draft.
Questions immediately began about Mayer’s role with the Raiders. Could both tight ends play together and be productive?
Well, the season has not gone well for Mayer. He has just eight catches for 42 yards and zero touchdowns in six games this season. He was put on the non-football illness list before the Week 6 game against the Steelers and was away from the team for more than a month. The exact reasons for Mayer’s absence have not been revealed, but family members said it was a personal matter.
Mayer is back with the team, but he has made little impact since his return. Now the question is whether he can put his personal matters behind him and find a place on this team or whether the Raiders will eventually need to trade him.
Meanwhile, Bowers has exploded on the scene. He is the top tight end in fantasy football this season with 84 receptions for 884 yards and four touchdowns. He has quickly become a top three dynasty tight end, and for many people, he is dynasty football’s TE1 moving forward.
Mayer, who is 6-4 and 265 pounds, is more of an in-line tight end compared to Bowers, 6-4 and 230 pounds, who can also play out of the slot. It will be interesting to see if these guys can co-exist on the same roster, and if the Raiders can figure out how to use each of their individual skill sets.
Mayer’s ADP has dropped from a high of 108 in November of 2023 all the way down to an ADP of 240 in November 2024. If Mayer is to regain any type of fantasy value something has to change.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!