A measly one yard was the difference between a winning week and a losing one last week. Unfortunately, I ended up on the wrong side of it as Calvin Ridley finished with 59 yards. It was the second time in his career that he caught at least seven passes and failed to hit 60 yards. But as always, we turn the page and move forward. I have already identified a few spots that I believe will result in some profit for this week. So, let’s dive right in with some of my favorite Week 15 NFL player props. As always, prices are subject to change. Ensure you get the best price and number possible, and tail (or fade) responsibly.
NFL Week 15 Player Props
Chuba Hubbard OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-130, ESPNBet)
This number immediately stood out when I first scanned the Week 15 board. That usually means one of two extremes – either it will hit easily or fail miserably. There is likely no in-between. As for the play itself, I think several factors are working in favor of Chuba Hubbard this week. Hubbard is once again the unquestioned leader in the Carolina Panthers backfield after the unfortunate season-ending injury suffered by rookie Jonathon Brooks last week. Miles Sanders is still on Injured Reserve, so Hubbard should get all the work he can handle. Hubbard has already been on the field for 75.7 percent of offensive snaps this season. This will be the first game he plays this year where both Sanders and Brooks are out of play. I would not be surprised to see Hubbard on the field for virtually every snap on Sunday.
The matchup itself is about as good as it gets for a bell-cow running back such as Hubbard. The Dallas Cowboys rank dead last in the NFL in EPA per play against the run and 30th in adjusted line yards allowed per rush. Carolina’s offensive line has surprisingly been one of the team’s strengths. They generate the seventh-highest adjusted line yards per rush this year. This also feels like a letdown spot for the Cowboys after an emotional last-minute loss on Monday night against the Cincinnati Bengals. Carolina is favored in this game, and it would not surprise me at all if they emerged victorious. Hubbard has averaged 113 rushing yards in the team’s three victories, going over this number in two of three. I expect a big day from Chuba Hubbard on Sunday, making this one of my favorite Week 15 NFL player props.
David Montgomery OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
The marquee matchup of the Week 15 slate features the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills. This game has plenty of star power and should supply plenty of offense. But I am going to go a bit off the beaten path with my favorite prop for this game. I am picking Lions running back David Montgomery to go over his receiving yardage prop. Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have teamed up to form the most dynamic backfield duo in the NFL. But while their reputations suggest that they are strictly complementary pieces, the two backs are more alike than you may think. Specifically, I am referring to their ability to catch passes out of the backfield. Gibbs enters this matchup with 34 catches for 312 yards. But Montgomery is right there with him, with 32 catches and 310 yards this season.
Montgomery has had at least 17 receiving yards in 10 of 13 games this year. That includes nine games of 20 yards or more and six games of 30 yards or more. Yet the sportsbooks continue to consistently list Gibbs’ receiving yardage props in the twenties, while Montgomery’s remain in the teens. I will concede that Gibbs is the more explosive player, but I prefer the value that we are getting with Montgomery. The matchup is favorable for Montgomery to continue to produce as a pass catcher. Buffalo has allowed the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. I expect Detroit to feature both backs to keep Josh Allen off the field. That should result include plenty of touches for Montgomery, including enough work as a receiver for him to help us cash out this prop.
Jordan Addison 50+ Receiving Yards (-120, Bet365)
I generally hate betting on a player coming off a big game. Defenses tend to key on the player a bit more, and the player himself can have a letdown. Perhaps most importantly, the books tend to overreact and jack up the numbers. However, in this case, I do not think the books have adjusted enough regarding Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison. Last week, Addison’s receiving yardage prop was between 44.5 and 48.5. He blew up for 133 yards and three touchdowns, and yet we are still getting a reasonable price for Addison to register at least 50 receiving yards on Monday night. What I find even more interesting is that last week was not Addison’s only monster game. He had 162 receiving yards just two weeks prior. Better still is that game came against his Week 15 opponent, the Chicago Bears.
Chicago has functioned as a run funnel defense for most of the year. They enter this week’s divisional matchup ranking 30th in DVOA versus the run, compared to 14th against the pass. However, Minnesota ranks third in the NFL in pass rate over expected. The Bears deploy zone coverage at an above-average rate, yet struggle in that alignment. Per Pro Football Focus, Chicago ranks in the bottom 10 in yards per coverage snap (7.11) and yards per reception (12.0) when they play zone coverage. We have seen this play out in recent weeks, as wideouts who excel versus zone have gotten the better of the Bears. Last week, Jauan Jennings scored twice while hauling in seven of eight targets for 90 yards. The week before, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught five of seven targets for 73 yards. And the week before that, it was Addison’s career-best 162-yard effort.
Addison has been excellent against zone coverage all year long. He is averaging 2.40 yards per route run versus zone this season. That is the 13th-highest rate among 86 players with at least 20 targets against zone coverage. The second-year wideout has also performed well of late and at home. Addison has cleared 50 receiving yards in four consecutive games. That includes the two aforementioned triple-digit receiving games as well as another 61-yard outing. Addison has also exceeded 50 yards in three of four games played in Minnesota this year. His only miss was a game in which he caught all five targets but ended up with only 42 yards. I do not mind playing the over on Addison’s reception prop, which currently sits at 3.5. But I am going to round out my Week 15 portfolio by picking Addison to register at least 50 receiving yards.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!