Last week’s slate caught me by surprise. It was super high scoring, thanks in large part to the Bills-Rams matchup. Normally a DK contest output of 180 would have one cash comfortably, but not this time around. With bye weeks in the books for this season, Week 15 is going to be jam-packed. On tap is a wonderful 12-game slate. Nonetheless, I have done the research to identify my top three cash and GPP plays at the skilled positions, top positional fade, and top stacks to help YOU win big. Without further ado, let’s dive into my Week 15 NFL DraftKings picks for the main slate.
Week 15 NFL DFS Picks for the Main Slate
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA): DK $6,100 at HOU (Cash)
Currently, the Miami Dolphins are two games out of the last playoff in the AFC. So they will need to stay hot down the stretch. Speaking of hot, since Week 11 no QB is playing better than Tua Tagovailoa. During this span, Tagovailoa is averaging 31.75 completions off of 42.25 pass attempts, three passing touchdowns, and 27.42 DK points per game. The Dolphins-Texans game may go overlooked with so many other appealing matchups on the slate. However, in the last two games, the Texans have allowed a combined 19 DK points per game to Mac Jones and Will Levis. I like Tagovailoa’s chances to put up 20+ in a negative game script.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): DK $5,900 vs. TB (Cash)
It is absolutely wild that Justin Herbert has scored over 20 DK points just twice this season. But here we are. Because the Chargers play so methodically, they are usually a team to avoid rostering in DFS. However, the matchup with Tampa Bay is a pace-up spot. On the season, the Bucs have given up the most DK points to QBs with 22.6 per game (per Pro Football Reference). The likelihood of a shootout is high, so I am definitely interested in playing pieces from this game. Herbert is my favorite of them all.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ): DK $5,400 at JAC (GPP)
Another season filled with promise has taken a turn for the worse. The New York Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention for a 14th straight year. Nevertheless, things have been trending up for Aaron Rodgers in the last two weeks. During this period, Rodgers is averaging 262.5 passing yards and 17.8 DK points per game. Since many consider Rodgers washed, he will not receive much rostership in contests. Rodgers has one of the best matchups this week going up against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars allow the second most DK points to QBs with 22.4 per game (per Pro Football Reference). If you plan on playing in multiple contests, get Rodgers in a least one lineup.
Russell Wilson (QB – PIT): DK $5,700 at PHI (Fade)
Fresh off a two-game winning streak, the Pittsburgh Steelers head east to face in-state rival Philadelphia Eagles. It is a big game for both teams regarding playoff ramifications. For Russell Wilson, the odds are stacked against him. Wilson’s top pass catcher George Pickens will miss a second straight week. Philadelphia, schedule adjusted, allows the fourth-fewest DK points to QBs. I expect Pittsburgh to struggle moving the ball, and because of this, I am out on Wilson this week.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): DK $7,500 vs. BUF (GPP)
One would think Jahmyr Gibbs being part of the highest over/under of the week would be heavily rostered. Nope, thanks in part to Derrick Henry. On a different note congratulations to Gibbs on having his first 1,000 rushing yard season. Gibbs has rushed over 100 yards in a game twice this year, and I am expecting it to be a third time this week. The Bills are a plus matchup for RBs. Buffalo, schedule adjusted allows the third most DK points with 28.1 per game (per Pro Football Reference). Absolutely love this spot for a Gibbs spike week.
James Conner (RB – ARI): DK $6,600 vs. NE (Cash)
It was good to see a bounce-back game from James Conner last week against Seattle. Conner was the RB7 with 18 carries for 90 yards, four catches for 32 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots will not be able to stop Conner. New England gives up the 11th most DK points to RBs with 23.9 per game (per Pro Football Reference). With Arizona being (-6) point home favorites, Conner will be relied upon often. I could really see a top-five finish here.
Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL): DK $6,100 at CAR (Cash)
It was only a matter of time before Rico Dowdle eventually took over the Cowboys backfield. Since Week 9, Dowdle has scored double-digit DK points four times. Dowdle’s matchup with Carolina should bring a good result. The Panthers are giving up the most DK points to RBs with 30.5 per game (per Pro Football Reference). An easy plug-and-play if I’ve ever seen one.
James Cook (RB – BUF): DK $6,800 at DET (Fade)
Normally when a player is involved in a high O/U, I would encourage people to play, but beware of James Cook. After last week’s surprise dud against the Los Angeles Rams, Cook faces a much tougher task against the Detroit Lions. With news coming out that Lions defenders Alim McNeil, DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike returning from injury, I want no part of James Cook in my lineup. In addition, Detroit has not allowed a 100-yard game to RBs all season. For $200 more DK I prefer David Montgomery.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): DK $7,600 vs. BUF (Cash)
Currently, the Detroit Lions have the NFL’s longest win streak with 11 consecutive games. At some point, the Lions will lose again, but I do not see it happening this week. Lately Amon-Ra St. Brown has frustrated DFS players with three straight games under 15 DK points, but that all changes this week. Buffalo is allowing over 30 DK points per game to opposing WRs (per Pro Football Reference). The Bills are susceptible to the middle of the field where St. Brown operates. A blow-up game is incoming for #14.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): DK $7,200 at NO (GPP)
The Washington Commanders are returning from their bye week as (-7.5) point road favorites at New Orleans. So many people are going to roster Brian Robinson Jr. because due to risk of a blowout. I get it, but do not forget about Terry McLaurin. McLaurin is currently the WR5 on the season and has scored 20+ DK points in the previous two weeks. The Saints secondary has not been good, allowing the seventh most DK points to WRs with 37.3 per game (per Pro Football Reference). Sign me up for a sub 10% rostered McLaurin.
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR): DK $5,400 vs. DAL (Cash)
So it appears the real Adam Thielen is back. Since returning from his hamstring three weeks ago Thielen has been playing incredible football. Excluding Week 12, Thielen is averaging eight receptions off of 10.5 targets, 100.5 yards, and 23 DK points per game. On Monday night football, the Cowboys defense gave up 48 DK points to the overall WR1 Ja’Marr Chase. I am not projecting Thielen to score that many DK points, but I can see him scoring around 25. Simply put, Thielen is one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND): DK $5,200 at DEN (Fade)
From afar, Michael Pittman Jr. is one of my favorite players to watch in the NFL. But I will admit it is tough watching the Colts struggle to pass the football each week. To make matters worse, the matchup against Denver is less than ideal. Pittman is likely to be guarded by Pat Surtain. To my knowledge, Surtain has not allowed a 100-yard game to a WR all season. In a better game environment, I prefer Amari Cooper for $100 more DK.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL): DK $3,800 at CAR (Cash)
After missing the last two weeks with a concussion Jake Ferguson returned back to action. Against Cincinnati, Ferguson played 77% of snaps and caught three balls for 32 yards off of six targets. This week versus Carolina one could not ask for a better spot for Ferguson. The Panthers concede a league-high 16.8 DK points to TEs (per Pro Football Reference). With Dallas being a (+3) point road underdog, I like Ferguson’s chances to finish as a top-seven TE option on the week.
Jordan Akins (TE – CLE): DK $2,700 vs. KC (GPP)
With David Njoku scheduled to miss this week, Jordan Akins has an opportunity to see an increased role. Also, Cedric Tillman will be out of action. The reigning two-time Super Bowl champ Kansas City Chiefs are in town and they are a plus matchup for Akins. Kansas City, schedule adjusted allow the second most DK points to TEs with 16.7 per game (per Pro Football Reference). So if Akins can find pay dirt along with two to four receptions, the gamble will be worth it.
Stone Smartt (TE – LAC): DK $2,600 vs. TB (Cash)
Like Jordan Akins, Stone Smartt has been inserted as the Chargers starting TE due to Will Dissly’s shoulder injury. Smartt was solid last week against Kansas City with three receptions for 54 yards. I expect a similar result versus Tampa Bay along with a touchdown. The Bucs are rank top ten in DK points allowed to TEs. Smartt will be a popular play, but that does not bother me at all.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET): DK $4,400 vs. BUF (Fade)
Although Sam LaPorta has disappointed compared with his rookie season the last two weeks has been solid for #87. During this span, LaPorta is averaging 13 DK points, six and a half targets, and one touchdown. Unfortunately, I will be staying away from LaPorta against a stingy Bills defense. Buffalo allows the fourth-fewest DK points to TEs (per Pro Football Reference). Give me Hunter Henry for $100 less DK in a better matchup.
Top Stacks
1. Lions-Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Bills-Josh Allen, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir
3. Dolphins-Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
4. Chargers-Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Stone Smartt
5. Jets-Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
Make sure to check out all of our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!