We are three NFL games into the fantasy football semi-finals weekend. Most of the Thursday and Saturday games had cut-and-dry decisions as far as who to start and sit. If you find yourself in a deficit or need a big day from an unlikely player, then these Week 16 bold predictions may be for you. I wouldn’t necessarily start any of these players over an obvious stud, but in certain scenarios, I believe they can provide a boost that your lineup may need to advance to the finals.
Week 16 Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Football Season
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
Bold Prediction: 250 passing yards, 3 touchdowns
22.0 fantasy points
I’m hoping Aaron Rodgers carries momentum from Week 15 into this Week 16 bold prediction. Rodgers posted a season-best 30.1 fantasy points against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. He threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns without any turnovers. Surprisingly enough, Rodgers also led all Jets players with 45 rushing yards, as well. I don’t expect Rodgers to run wild again in Week 16. However, I do think he scores multiple touchdowns through the air. Rodgers has done so in three of his last four starts. While they’re not the Jaguars, who are the best fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks, the Rams still rank inside the top-10. My Week 16 bold prediction is that Aaron Rodgers, at home with his full complement of weapons, cracks the top-five quarterbacks, or comes close.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Bold Prediction: 15 carries, 60 rushing yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 20 yards
17.0 fantasy points
Nick Chubb will miss the rest of the season with a broken foot. He suffered the injury in Week 15. Chubb missed the first half of the season recovering from last year’s season-ending knee injury, as well. Like the Browns, many fantasy football managers will now turn to Jerome Ford this week. Ford will find himself in many fantasy football semi-final matchups with a long list of running backs dealing with injuries, including Chubb.
In Chubb’s place earlier this season, Ford wasn’t a must-start player. The entire Browns offense, led by Deshaun Watson, struggled, though. Ford is still one of just seven running backs with 80 or more carries this season to average 5.0 or more yards per carry. In five games before Chubb’s return, Ford averaged 4.6 targets per game. It’s hard to predict how involved Ford will be in the passing game with Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting the start at quarterback, but any involvement is a bonus on top of the expected volume he should see as the lead back running the ball.
The Browns are in Cincinnati to play the Bengals in Week 16. The Bengals are one of four teams in the league to allow over 30.0 points per game over their last three. Their defense has allowed 27.6 points per game to opponents this season which ranks second in the league. For fantasy football purposes, the Bengals have allowed a top-10 running back performance in four of their last five games. The one game they did not, Rico Dowdle (RB16) still managed 141 all-purpose yards, but didn’t score a touchdown. Ford’s expected volume plus the matchup equals this Week 16 bold prediction stat line. Reaching 17.0 fantasy points is something Ford and Chubb have done a combined three times this season.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants
Bold Prediction: 6 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
18.0 fantasy points
Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are the only New York Giants that you’ll likely see in fantasy football semi-final lineups. Even starting them is bold with Drew Lock getting the start at quarterback. If you’re in a deeper league and/or need a potential high-volume option at wide receiver that has a good chance at finding the end zone, then consider this Week 16 bold prediction for Wan’Dale Robinson. Drew Lock has started two games for the Giants this season. In those starts, he’s averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game. Wan’Dale Robinson has drawn two and 11 targets in those starts respectively, but logged nine more last week with Tommy DeVito under center.
The Giants’ Week 16 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons will draw a lot of attention. Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be making his first start for the Falcons. Though we all want to see Penix light it up through the air, I imagine the Falcons’ game plan will be to take advantage of the Giants’ defense on the ground, as most teams have. New York has allowed 143.7 rushing yards per game this season. That ranks second in the league. As a result, I expect the Giants to operate in a neutral or negative game script in Week 16. This should lend to a high passing volume of which Robinson should benefit from. The Falcons have also allowed a league-high 20 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. So, there’s a better chance than most that Robinson could find the end zone especially if Malik Nabers draws most of the defense’s attention.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bold Prediction: 6 receptions, 65 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
18.5 fantasy points
I tend to attack advantageous matchups when it comes to tight end bold predictions. This Week 16 bold prediction is no different. Brenton Strange and the Jaguars are playing the Raiders in Las Vegas. The Raiders defense has allowed the fourth-most receptions (83), yards (908), touchdowns (7) and fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. Just last week, Strange logged a career-best day. He caught 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards. That, of course, is in place of Evan Engram, who is on Injured Reserve, and with Mac Jones at quarterback. Strange should remain a top target for Jones in Vegas behind only rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. This Week 16 bold prediction carries some risk based on the second-year tight end’s small sample size of success, but he has a much higher floor than most streaming options for semi-finals managers doing so.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!