Looking back at last week, the Arnold Palmer Invitational lived up to the “Difficult Scoring” hype as Russell Henley won with a score of -11 and only two players had three sub-70 rounds.
The Florida swing continues this week as the top players on the PGA Tour head to TPC Sawgrass for the unofficial “5th major”, the PLAYERS Championship. The elite field consists of each player ranked Top 10 and 48 of the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. There is also a nice collection of former winners in Scottie Scheffler(2024, 2023), Justin Thomas(2021), Rory McIlroy(2019), Si Woo Kim(2017), Jason Day(2016), Matt Kuchar(2012), and Adam Scott(2004).
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: TPC Sawgrass
Players will be gearing up for another tough test this week as TPC Sawgrass ranks, in terms of scoring average, as one of the hardest courses to navigate on the PGA Tour. It is one of many Pete Dye designs so I will definitely be weighing performance on those comp courses in my model. The courses that are used most frequently on tour that will be in my model are Harbour Town(RBC Heritage), TPC Stadium Course(AMEX), and TPC River Highlands(Travelers Championship). All of them force accurate placement off the tee to avoid not only the 4″ rough but also the water that is on 17 of the 18 holes. Because of these forced layups, there will be a well-above-average amount of “less than driver” tee shots. Another common theme of the Pete Dye courses is the increased difficulty and importance of the approach shots as, once again, danger lurks everywhere. I will have a lot of weight on Strokes Gained: Approach in my model and will also boost Strokes Gained: Around the Green as getting up and down to save pars will be very important. To close out the model, I will be including some TPC Sawgrass course history and performance in strong field events.
Key Stats & Trends in the Model:
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee with emphasis on Accuracy
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Course History
- Pete Dye Performance
- Strong Field Performance
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Justin Thomas
- Collin Morikawa
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sepp Straka
- Russell Henley
- Rory McIlroy
- Adam Scott
Best Bets: The PLAYERS Championship
Collin Morikawa Outright (+1600)
The low numbers on Rory(+800) and Scheffler(+400) have me gravitating to the next tier and it starts with Morikawa who has been trending towards a seventh career win. He was close last week entering the final round with the lead but couldn’t close it out after struggling with his irons(-1.289) and putter(-.677) on Sunday and finished runner-up. I am not worried as the larger sample size jumps off the page as he has gained strokes on approach in five of his last six events and ranks 13th in this field in SG: Approach over that span. In that same sample size, he is 6th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in Fairways Gained, and 12th in Birdie or Better %. He also stands out in my custom model ranking Top 10 in SG: Total in a less than driver event, SG: Total in events with very strong fields, and SG: Total in difficult scoring conditions.
He doesn’t have the strongest history at TPC Sawgrass making cuts in three of four trips but does have a T13 in 2023 and comes in with excellent form.
Shane Lowry Outright (+4000) / Top 10(+330)
Lowry is another player who stood out last week after going 69/67 to take the lead going into the weekend. He then fell apart on Saturday losing over four strokes to the field. He did hold it together on Sunday and picked up his second Top 10 of the season and second finish of 11th or better on the Florida swing. Speaking of Florida, he is second in this field in SG: Total in Florida over the last 50 rounds. In my model, he also ranks Top 20 in SG: Total on Pete Dye courses, elite fields, difficult scoring conditions, and events with heavy less than driver strategies.
Lowry’s course history was shaky to start with three missed cuts in his first five trips to TPC Sawgrass but since has a Top 10, three Top 20s, and no finish worse than 35th. He checks all the boxes for me this week and I love the value of betting him outright and Top 10.
Sepp Straka Outright (+5000) / Top 10(+400)
Going down the board looking for value, I keep landing on Sepp Straka who also checks almost every box for me this week. He returns to TPC Sawgrass with two finishes of 16th or better in his last three trips and easily comes in with his best form yet. It has been a great start to the season as he has picked up a win at the AMEX, has six Top 15 finishes in eight events including a T5(Arnold Palmer Invitational) and T11(Cognizant Classic) in the first two Florida swing events. Statistically, he jumps off the page ranking 10th in this field in SG: Tee to Green, 9th in SG: Approach, and 8th in Driving Accuracy. As a shorter hitter, long irons are also very important and he ranks 1st and 14th in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards. He is another player I will be betting outright and Top 10.
