When setting your hitting lineups in fantasy baseball, start your studs. This is especially true in weekly leagues because a lot can change throughout the week. An opposing pitcher can get skipped or pushed back. Weather patterns can shift, especially during this time of year. Managers usually tweak batting orders more often early in the season. And even a player’s perceived value can change in a relatively short period of time. So, I try not to put too much emphasis on the things we cannot control. But there is still plenty to consider when deciding whether to start some of your other hitters. I will discuss these factors in this week’s fantasy baseball hitting planner.
Week 3 is the first one of the 2025 season that resembles a typical fantasy baseball schedule. Four teams play a full seven-game slate, while the other 26 play six games. There are 11 games slated for Monday, but none of them are day games. That may not be fun for those of us looking for an escape in the middle of the day, but it does make setting lineups in weekly leagues easier. We should know the starting lineups of most Major League teams by the time the first set of games lock for the week. Below are a few factors you should consider before setting your fantasy baseball lineups for Week 3. This includes information related to the projected starting pitchers each team will face. Probable pitchers can be difficult to project and are subject to change.
In the accompanying chart below, you will see several key pieces of data. First, we have the number of games each offense plays and the number of left-handed and right-handed starting pitchers they are projected to face. This can impact how a Major League manager deploys his starting lineup from game to game. Just remember not to go overboard with this information. You are not benching Mike Trout because the Angels are scheduled to face six right-handed starting pitchers this week. However, you should bench Randal Grichuk in favor of Pavin Smith in deeper leagues. Arizona has utilized a clear platoon at their designated hitter position thus far this season. This week, the Diamondbacks also face six right-handed starting pitchers. Smith will likely start each of those games and has been hitting third in the lineup on most occasions.
Next, I have listed numbers for the relative strength of starters and bullpens that each offense is facing. For the columns labeled “Starters” and “Bullpen,” you want lower numbers for your hitters. This week, the New York Mets hitters have the most favorable matchups. Conversely, I project the St. Louis Cardinals to face the toughest slew of pitchers in Week 3. That does not mean you should bench Ivan Herrera in favor of Luis Torrens. But it may help swing the pendulum toward Brandon Nimmo over Alec Burleson for an outfield spot. I am basing these numbers primarily on preseason WAR projections for the time being. I will most likely continue to do so for a few more weeks. Once numbers begin to stabilize, I will adjust accordingly. Some of these rankings may fluctuate quite a bit at that point.
Don’t Overreact to SP Matchups
We must remember that facing one or two stud pitchers is not necessarily a death knell for a hitter. Starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings than ever on average. In a six-game week, an everyday starter will likely see over 25 plate appearances. If two of those games took place against an elite starter, that still means that at least 75 percent of that hitter’s plate appearances would be against all other pitchers. A hitter can struggle versus the studs, tee off on everyone else, and still have a great week. Having said that, this week figures to be more challenging than most from an offensive standpoint. Many Opening Day starting pitchers are lining up to start twice this week. Combine that with some potential lousy weather, and offenses may be in for a rough Week 3.
Projecting which relief pitchers a hitter may face is trickier than projecting starting pitchers for several reasons. First is the game situation. A team can have a great closer but may not use him if they are trailing. Similarly, a high-leverage reliever who pitches two or three straight days is likely to be given a day or two off afterward. Or a team can place its top reliever on paternity leave on a Tuesday morning and miss an entire series. All of this is information we cannot know before lineups lock.
Park Factors are a Real Thing!
I have also listed park factors for each MLB ballpark via Baseball Savant. A couple of notes on park factors before we continue. The park factors are pulled from 2024 with a three-year rolling average. There isn’t enough data from the past 10 days to put too much stock in this year’s results, lest we think that 1-0 games are suddenly going to become the norm at Great American Ballpark. I also went with the overall park factor as opposed to focusing solely on home runs or another category. Yankee Stadium has a 119 park factor for home runs from left-handed hitters but has just a 99 overall park factor for lefty hitters. I am using the 99 number.
I adjusted the factors based on hitter-handedness and the number of games at each park in Week 3. For example, Coors Field has an overall park factor of 111 for left-handed hitters, while Petco Park comes in at 96. That means a lefty Rockies hitter like Ryan McMahon (3 @ COL, 3 @ SD) would have a relative park factor of 103.5 for this coming week. Tampa and the Athletics are playing in new parks in 2025, so numbers for Tropicana Field and Oakland Coliseum are irrelevant. Both of those teams are coincidentally home for all of Week 3. Therefore, I listed their park factors as “N/A”. For the teams they are hosting this week (SD and NYM for ATH; LAA and ATL for TB), I only factored in the other ballparks their respective hitters will be hitting in.
Hopefully, you find this hitting planner useful. Let me know if there are any other data points you would like to see in future editions of this column.
Week 3 Hitting Planner for Fantasy Baseball
| TEAM | GAMES | v. LH SP | v. RH SP | Starters | Bullpen | HOME | ROAD | LHB PF | RHB PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 6 | 0 | 99 | 103 |
| ATH | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2.03 | 1.13 | 6 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| ATL | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2.02 | 1.07 | 3 | 3 | 99 | 101 |
| BAL | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.6 | 0.78 | 3 | 3 | 99.5 | 101 |
| BOS | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1.46 | 0.45 | 4 | 3 | 105.3 | 102.3 |
| CHC | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.93 | 1.08 | 3 | 3 | 98.5 | 98.5 |
| CHW | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1.38 | 1.08 | 3 | 3 | 99 | 97.5 |
| CIN | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.45 | 0.67 | 3 | 3 | 100.5 | 100.5 |
| CLE | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.47 | 0.53 | 6 | 0 | 99 | 95 |
| COL | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1.77 | 0.98 | 3 | 3 | 103.5 | 105 |
| DET | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1.32 | 3 | 3 | 99.5 | 100 |
| HOU | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.47 | 0.82 | 3 | 3 | 96 | 96 |
| KC | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2.01 | 1.41 | 4 | 3 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| LAA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1.3 | 0.83 | 0 | 6 | 101 | 100 |
| LAD | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 3 | 3 | 101 | 100 |
| MIA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.75 | 0.68 | 3 | 3 | 100 | 99 |
| MIL | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.05 | 0.5 | 0 | 6 | 105 | 108 |
| MIN | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.79 | 0.83 | 3 | 4 | 102.6 | 103.1 |
| NYM | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 3 | 3 | 96 | 98 |
| NYY | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.6 | 0.68 | 3 | 3 | 98 | 99 |
| PHI | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.95 | 1.03 | 0 | 6 | 98.5 | 101 |
| PIT | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.93 | 0.58 | 3 | 3 | 104.5 | 101 |
| SD | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 3 | 3 | 96 | 97 |
| SF | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 97.5 | 98.5 |
| SEA | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.2 | 0.72 | 6 | 0 | 91 | 92 |
| STL | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3.13 | 1.02 | 3 | 3 | 101 | 99.5 |
| TB | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.03 | 0.95 | 6 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
| TEX | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.42 | 0.82 | 0 | 6 | 95 | 94 |
| TOR | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1.91 | 1.17 | 0 | 7 | 105.7 | 101.9 |
| WAS | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.98 | 0.73 | 3 | 3 | 104 | 99.5 |
What other information would you like to see in a hitting planner? Let us know in the comments below.
