In what seemed like an eternity, we finally got a week’s worth of actual baseball games last week. And from torpedo bats to Carson Kelly hitting for the cycle, it sure didn’t disappoint. Now, we enter that initial phase of the fantasy baseball season where we overreact to small sample sizes. Fun times! But there’s no need to panic. The Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers series is here to help you with lineup and waiver wire decisions — so you can keep all the overreaction noise in check.
It’s worth keeping in mind that while we’re always aiming to improve our rosters, we also need to trust our draft process and not panic over a couple of weeks’ worth of stats. With that in mind, let’s look at some fantasy baseball risers and fallers from last week.
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
Week 2 stats from 3/31 – 4/6
Risers
Michael Conforto (OF — LAD)
On the surface, Michael Conforto’s two home runs, four runs scored and three RBI for the week don’t pop off the page. But looking under the hood, there’s a lot to get excited about. Conforto smoked the ball to the tune of a 36.4% barrel rate and 45.5% hard-hit rate, and he finished the week with a 1.154 OPS across 19 plate appearances.
More encouraging is that Conforto has posted similar numbers since Opening Day. Conforto is slashing .276/.400/.621 this season with a .421 xwOBA and 183 wRC+ across 35 plate appearances. He’s also flashing his plus plate skills while making quality contact (19% barrel rate and 52.4% hard-hit rate). The sample size is small, but Conforto isn’t exclusively sitting against lefties and has moved up to the cleanup spot in three of his last five games. Conforto is zeroed in right now and hitting in the middle of a stacked Dodger lineup. He’s worth taking a shot on in 12-teamers to see where this goes.
Jake Mangum (OF — TBR)
Jake Mangum was a buzzy name last week, as he literally hit the ground running following his call-up. He stole four bags in five games and is tied for the team lead in swipes. Mangum reached base safely in all his starts last week, collecting 10 hits in 20 at-bats, including two doubles. He also posted a healthy .980 OPS.
Mangum is a switch-hitting speedster who brings a solid hit tool to the fantasy table. In 2024, Mangum slashed .317/.357/.442 with six home runs and 20 steals across 428 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s worth a stab in 15-teamers if you need speed. He played in six of the Rays’ last eight games and should get a long leash while he’s running hot.
Carson Kelly (C– CHC)
Congratulations to Carson Kelly! He hit for the cycle last week — the first ever player to do so in March — and sat atop the week’s leaderboards in OPS (1.882), wOBA (.682), and wRC+ (350). Much of Kelly’s weekly totals (6 H, 2 HR, 4R, 10 RBI across 19 PA) came from one game. However, the veteran catcher also showed off some strong plate skills (31.6% BB%) and made loud contact (30% barrel rate).
Kelly is sporting a 1.427 OPS across 26 plate appearances to Miguel Amaya’s .667 OPS. While regression is around the corner, the Cubs appear to be riding the hot hand, with Kelly playing in four of the team’s last six games. The Cubs are on fire right now, and Kelly’s streak is worth riding in 15-team leagues with two catchers.
Luke Jackson (RP — TEX)
Luke Jackson led the league in saves last week. He closed out three games, allowing two hits, zero walks, and three punchouts. The fantasy baseball community has hesitated to get on board with Jackson as the team’s closer, which is wild. He’s successfully converted five consecutive save opportunities, with a 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a 15.8% K-BB% across those five innings. Additionally, Jackson’s five saves are tied for the league lead through 11 games this season.
Jackson’s career 24.3% strikeout and 10% walk rate aren’t numbers you want to see from your closer. But the Rangers are rolling with Jackson, and so should fantasy managers. He’s available in just over 30% of Fantrax and 40% of Yahoo leagues. Scoop Jackson up!
Fallers
Austin Riley (3B — ATL)
It was a brutal week for Austin Riley. The slugger went 3-for-21 with 10 strikeouts and dropped from second to fifth in the order in his final two games. While the move down the order isn’t ideal, we need to pump the brakes about hitting the panic button here. Not only is Riley still making quality contact, but he’s also one of the league’s most consistent hitters. Plus, we’re talking about a nine-game sample. Hang tight, people. Riley will come around.
Yainer Diaz (C — HOU)
Yainer Diaz was the second catcher off many draft boards this season. He brings a sub-20% strikeout rate and a .280+ batting average to fantasy lineups, with the added bonus of being in a strong Houston lineup. Unfortunately, none of that has come to fruition so far this season. Diaz has only two hits across 30 at-bats for the year (.067), with an uncharacteristic 31.3% strikeout rate and -43 wRC+.
While none of that is good, there’s not much fantasy managers can do besides waiting it out. Diaz’s .100 BABIP is the third-worst mark in the league and is due for positive regression. Additionally, Diaz is making solid contact (10% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate). He’s a hold in 12+ teamers while we wait for Diaz — and the Astros’ offense — to turn things around.
Jacob Young (OF — WAS)
It’s been a rough start to the season for Jacob Young. He failed to log a hit last week and was 0-for-1 on the basepaths. Further, he ceded playing time to Alex Call, starting in only one of the Nationals’ last five games.
Reportedly, the team is taking a “reset approach” with Young to work on his mechanics — the speedster is 1-for-15 on the season with a .067/.263/.133 slash line. Young is only a year removed from a 33-steal season, so hopefully, his “reset” works sooner rather than later. But this bears watching, as Young could continue to miss time — or catch a stint in the minors — if he can’t get back on track. In the meantime, fantasy managers in 15-team leagues should continue to hold Young, if possible.
Cam Smith (OF — HOU)
Cam Smith was a popular dart throw at the end of drafts after a hot spring (1.129 OPS) led an Opening Day gig. However, Smith has struggled mightily in his limited time in the majors. He has two hits and a .111/.238/.111 slash line across 21 plate appearances. Smith is also striking out at a nearly 43% clip and has started losing playing time.
Smith’s poor start isn’t too surprising, given that he logged only 37 games in the minor leagues — and jumped from Double-A to the big leagues. A return to the minors is likely coming for Smith sooner rather than later. Feel free to drop Smith in all formats outside of dynasty leagues.
