The golf world is buzzing as Rory McIlroy didn’t just re-enter the Major Championship winners circle, but he also became just the sixth golfer in history to achieve the career Grand Slam. It was an amazing end to an amazing week at Augusta for the first major championship of the season. Next up is the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in May. Before that, however, we have more golf to play and more bankroll to build!
This week, the PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head, South Carolina, for the RBC Heritage. An event that once lacked interest from the top players in the world is now on the signature event schedule for the third straight year. The field of 72 includes seven of the Top 10, 18 of the Top 25, and 37 of the Top 50 players in the DataGolf World Rankings. Unlike the last two signature events, there will be no cut this week at the RBC Heritage.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course:
Like it has since the tournament’s inception back in 1970, Harbour Town Golf Links will host the RBC Heritage. The course is a Pete Dye designed par 71 that is listed at 7,213 yards on the scorecard. Like almost all Pete Dye designs, positioning and accuracy off the tee stand out and should be key stats in our models. What makes it so important are the tree-lined fairways, doglegs, and hazards, which force golfers to club down off the tee to ensure positioning to capitalize on the correct angles to have a decent shot at hitting the greens in regulation. Because of this, Harbour Town GL has above-average fairway accuracy, but don’t be fooled as it also has below-average Greens in Regulation rate and ranks as the 7th hardest greens on tour to hit in regulation, which elevates the importance of Strokes Gained: Approach. Breaking down the iron game further, we see a well-above-average amount of approach shots that are from the mid ranges of 150-175 and 175-200 yards.
Key Stats in my Model:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 175-200 yards
- Driving Accuracy
- Less than Driver Performance
- Pete Dye Performance
- Strokes Gained: Putting
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my stats model for this week:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Collin Morikawa
- Russell Henley
- Justin Thomas
- Daniel Berger
- Corey Conners
- Patrick Cantlay
- Shane Lowry
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Bud Cauley
Best Bets: RBC Heritage
Another top-heavy odds board with Scottie Scheffler at +360 in the outright market as the only golfer under +1000 this week. As always, I avoid these big numbers and search for more value in the outright and prop markets.
Patrick Cantlay Outright (+2000) / Top 5 (+350)
No golfer stands out more when looking at course history here at Harbour Town than Cantlay. While he has yet to win the RBC Heritage, he has Top 10 finishes in six of seven trips, including five podium finishes, and also leads all golfers in this field in Strokes Gained: Total here. He has been a bit inconsistent with the short game recently,y leading to back-to-back finishes outside the Top 30, but still has made the cut in all eight events in 2025 with four finishes inside the Top 15 and two Top 5s, as well. The good news on the stats front is that he ranks 7th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds, is Top 20 in “Less than Driver” events, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye courses. I love the number on DraftKings Sportsbook and will also be betting him in the Top 5 market.
Daniel Berger Outright (+4500) / Top 5 (+750) / Top 10 (+320) / Top 20 (+150)
It has been an excellent return to form for Berger in 2025 after missing a lot of time due to injury. After missing the cut in two of his first three events, he has not missed a cut in seven straight while tallying a runner-up at the WM Phoenix Open and finishing no worse than 30th in any of those starts. He now returns to Harbour Town, where he has some plus course history, having made the cut in four straight with a 3rd place finish in 2020, 13th in 2021, and 21st in 2022. He checks almost all the boxes in my stats mode, ranking 4th in driving accuracy, 9th in short game, and while he ranks 36th in SG: Approach, he has gained two or more strokes in four of his last six events. To cap it off, he has been very successful on Pete Dye courses, ranking 9th in that category.
Can he get back in the winner’s circle? That might be a stretch, but I will still be sprinkling some on the outright while betting the prop markets to complete the ladder bet this week.
Bud Cauley Outright (+7500) / Top 10 (+450) / Top 20 (+170)
Not many golfers are coming into this event with as good of form as Cauley. He is the only player in the field to card three straight Top 10 finishes, including a T6 at the Players Championship. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and has a Top 20 short game. The only worry I have is the lack of accuracy off the tee, but digging deeper, he is 14th in this field when looking at performance on less than driver courses. Like Berger above, I will have the most exposure to the prop market bets and then sprinkle some on the outright, as well.
