One of the best parts about fantasy baseball is watching the action unfold on the field. However, there’s more to it than just the results on the field. While our success in fantasy baseball is measured by just a few statistics, there are a great deal of data points behind them. Evaluating players and their performance is based on more than just one variable. But combined, it all comes together. Under that guise, let’s take a look at three players and how we can view them based on their early-season performances.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Hitting Stats
We Haven’t Seen the Best From Cruz
If you are left wanting more from Oneil Cruz, you are forgiven. I’m right there with you. To say that the tools are there would be an understatement.
So far this season, Cruz has the second-best barrel rate at a staggering 23.6%. When you combine that with a 60.2% hard hit rate and 97.2 mile per hour average exit velocity, it’s clear that Cruz does some real damage to the ball. Quite simply, Cruz makes good things happen when he makes contact. Perhaps the biggest problem, though, is that he strikes out 33.5% of the time, so he doesn’t make contact as much as we would like. From both an OBP and baseball perspective, it’s also hard to argue with Cruz’s 15.1% walk rate. The problem, again, is that it means he’s not making contact in about half of his at-bats.
But when he does, the production follows in a big way. Cruz’s batting average at .227 is depressed due to the strikeouts and his .237 xBA offers minimal upside. Cruz’s .458 SLG (.487 xSLG) follows suit, but the real issue here is the strikeouts. Between that and a launch angle of just 9.5 degrees, Cruz is leaving upside and production on the table.
With a .232 ISO in tow, Cruz has 12 home runs and 28 RBI while stealing 23 bases. That combination of power and speed can’t be overlooked. I’m not sure it’s hyperbole to say that Cruz is one of the most talented hitters in the game.
O’Hoppe Should Bounce Back
What have you done for me lately? Logan O’Hoppe began the season by hitting .270 in April and then .259 in May. The problem is that he’s hitting just .048 through his first five games in May. We know that five games doesn’t make a season, and O’Hoppe is too good a player to overreact on.
That begins with O’Hoppe’s 12th best barrel rate of 17,5%. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he also has a 53.2% hard hit rate along with a .226 ISO. There isn’t any batting average upside, .241 compared to a .243 xBA, but O’Hoppe’s power production is a different game. He has a slugging percentage of .467 with an xSLG of .508.
The biggest issue for the catcher is the need to make more contact. O’Hoppe is struggling with a 34.1% strikeout rate while only walking 3.9% of the time. When he makes contact, though, good things happen. He has 14 home runs and 31 RBI, which is a true asset from the catcher position. Until he gets the strikeouts under control, it might not be without stress, but O’Hoppe isn’t someone we should give up on. The Angels backstop is a top-12 to top-15 catcher and should finish with 25 home runs with a chance for 30.
What to do With Doyle?
After Brenton Doyle finished with 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year while driving in 72 runs, the bar was set pretty high. The problem, though, is that his performance through 54 games isn’t coming close to 2024 levels so far. Doyle has just five home runs and six stolen bases while only driving in 22 runs. Nothing is going right for the outfielder as he’s only hitting .196. If there were ever a buy-low option, Doyle would be it.
Whether you focus on Doyle’s .241 BABIP or .242 xBA, things suddenly look a lot more reasonable. The gap between Doyle’s .314 SLG and his .417 xSLG is even larger. When you dig into some of Doyle’s other metrics, expecting a jump to his slugging percentage and subsequently his production is very reasonable. That thought process only picks up more steam when looking at some other Statcast metrics. Doyle has career highs in barrel rate (12.7%), launch angle (13.3 degrees), and average exit velocity (90.4 miles per hour), which should help him get back on track.
Between health and off-field issues, it hasn’t been an ideal start to the season for Doyle. The underlying data is there, so let’s give Doyle a little more time to sort it out.
