The Buffalo Bills host their second Sunday Night Football game of the season. The visiting Patriots look to start a win streak against their divisional rival after defeating the Panthers 42-13. Can Drake Maye lead this team to victory, or at the very look good in defeat?
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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-8) O/U: 49.5
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Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, Antonio Gibson – RB, New England Patriots
What do we do about this backfield? Rhamondre Stevenson has been fumbling at an extremely high rate this season, which made it seem like rookie TreVeyon Henderson was in line for increased work. That wasn’t necessarily the case last week. All three Pats RBs carried the ball at least 6 times, with none of them getting 10 or more carries. Henderson and Gibson both scored on the ground, but their upside was still capped. If these players can’t post eye-popping numbers in a blowout in an incredible matchup, when can you trust them?
While the splits may be fairly equal, there is a clear cutoff from Stevenson and Henderson to Gibson. The former two have 31 and 26 carries, as well as 12 and 13 targets, respectively. Gibson has only carried the ball 19 times while drawing 2 targets. Stevenson appears to be the lead back, getting the early down work while also staying on the field on 3rd downs.
Henderson routinely works in those same moments, which is why we see them dominate both rushing and receiving work. Gibson’s production mainly comes from some early down work in the rotation, while also gaining some goalline work this past week. With the Bills being 8-point home favorites, the pass-catching backs seem to offer the only value here unless Gibson scores again.
Buffalo’s run defense ranks 30th in DVOA, and the Saints ran for 189 yards on 34 carries against them last week. Injuries to an already soft front seven could open the door to a great combined effort from these backs. Trusting any of them individually is a different story. Stevenson and Henderson should be the only guys you can trust as inconsistent RB2s or FLEX plays. Gibson is a deep desperation play at best.
Stefon Diggs – WR, New England Patriots
Drake Maye is having a great start to his sophomore year. That’s great news for his pass catchers, especially the ones demanding big target shares. Stefon Diggs joined the Patriots after a short and disappointing year in Houston, where he didn’t manage at least 700 yards for the first time in his career. His game logs have been mixed this season, but he could be ready to finally join your fantasy football lineup.
Diggs is averaging 5.5 targets per game and has an 18.18% target share. That’s not an elite amount by any means, but he’s a nearly 32-year-old receiver on his 4th team. However, Diggs has only run 68 routes this season, according to Sumer Sports.
That means that while his target share in general is not high, he gets targeted on nearly a third of his routes, one of the highest rates in the league. Buffalo’s elite offense should be able to keep Drake Maye throwing in this one. That benefits Diggs and the rest of the New England pass-catchers.
Buffalo’s defense has been dealing with injuries all season, with LB Matt Milano and DT Ed Oliver logging limited practices this week and officially being questionable. CB Dorian Strong and LB Dorian Williams have both been ruled out as well.
Despite dismantling the Jets back in Week 2, the Bills have struggled to contain opposing offenses of all calibers. The Ravens dropped 40 in Week 1, the Dolphins kept pace with them in Week 3, and the Saints dropped 19 in Week 4. Buffalo has mainly struggled against the run, though, ranking 30th in run defense DVOA but 10th in passing defense.
With injuries piling up for the Bills and a negative game script expected, Diggs looks primed for another good week on Sunday Night Football in Week 5.
Check out all of our Week 5 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
Khalil Shakir – WR, Buffalo Bills
The Patriots’ run defense is pretty strong, limiting opposing teams to 56, 61, and 64 yards before allowing the Panthers to gain 129 yards on the ground. Carolina lost that game 42-13, though. New England is more exploitable through the air, ranking bottom 10 against the pass and allowing over 240 passing yards per game.
Playing out of the slot, Shakir will mostly avoid star CB Christian Gonzalez and instead face Marcus Jones. While only allowing 126 yards and a TD this season, Jones has allowed a passer rating of 122.9. Even if he goes out wide or goes up against a safety, New England’s secondary has been incredibly weak outside of Gonzalez. The matchup is one of the best in the league. The question just becomes whether or not New England can keep up.
Volume will probably be low, but the Bills like to pepper Shakir with low aDOT passes and let him make plays on his own, which he often does. He’s a risky FLEX play that could pay off if Buffalo is forced into a close one.
Dalton Kincaid – TE, Buffalo Bills
It’s only been four weeks, but Kincaid has already beaten his previous season-high in TDs. That’s somewhat encouraging but also concerning, as he may be due for regression. Even if he fails to score as frequently, his reception totals keep him in the mix as a high-end TE2 each week. Kincaid recorded 4+ receptions in each of the first three weeks to start 2025 before only getting 1 catch last week.
Buffalo spreads the ball out a lot. While five Bills have drawn at least 13 targets, Keon Coleman leads with only 22. The red zone targets are even closer, with six players drawing 2+, but Khalil Shakir topped the group with just four.
Kincaid will rarely post elite tight end numbers on this team, but he gets an easy matchup against the Patriots. New England allows the eighth-most points to the position, and while the Bills are heavy favorites, it may not be a total blowout.
Buffalo has failed to contain most of their opponents this year, and they could get gashed on the ground by the Patriots. Regression may come, but you can still start Kincaid and expect a healthy mix of floor and ceiling.
Hunter Henry – TE, New England Patriots
It’s hard to find value at tight end in the middle of a season. The position is so top-heavy, and the waiver wire is barren. Hunter Henry could be an exception. Leading the Patriots with 24 targets, Henry is on pace for over 100 targets – a mark he has never reached before. Henry already posted a career-high 97 targets, 66 receptions, and 674 yards last season with a rookie Drake Maye. He could once again have a career year.
Henry is not just a TD-or-bust option, but he has a lot going for his TD upside. His 6 red zone targets is tied for the 5th most in the league this season, and the most for a TE per Pro Football Reference. His 13.6 yards per reception only trails Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren amongst TEs this year. It’s evident that Henry has seen an increase in usage and efficiency with Drake Maye, but OC Josh McDaniels could be playing a key role, too.
McDaniels was the Patriots OC for a decade, getting to play with a monster TE in Rob Gronkowski. After joining the Raiders as their HC from 2022 to 2023, TEs Foster Moreau and Michael Mayer had career years. Could this all be McDaniel’s doing? It’s hard to say, but it seems like he enjoys using his TEs, and Henry should continue to flourish.
The Bills allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs. Despite facing some pretty weak TE rooms, it’s hard to trust Henry’s floor in this game. The way to beat the Bills is on the ground. The large spread in favor of the hosts means that Maye should throw plenty on Sunday Night Football. Henry has the opportunity to produce a solid week as a bye-week or injury fill-in. There’s even full-time starter potential in 12+ team leagues this Sunday Night.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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