Week 7 of the NFL DraftKings slate brings us more weather to worry about. The Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins will bring severe winds up to 50 miles per hour. The running backs will surely get upgraded in this scenario. And I don’t think Quinshon Judkins’ line can get any higher. His current projected total at the time of writing is 92.5 rushing yards. Between the Dolphins’ defense and the weather, that line is justified. And he will likely be in every lineup come later today. Other weather to keep an eye on is in Chicago and Tennessee. Both passing games will see a decrease in upside. Aside from that, there are several games to target that we will talk about below.
Week 7 NFL DraftKings Plays
Favorite Play: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (6.4k)
Speaking of one of those games. The Chargers and Colts matchup might be fantasy gold. They have one of the highest point totals on the slate. And the Colts are surprisingly thin at cornerback after Charvarius Ward suffered a concussion in warm-ups last week. Kenny Moore II will return after limited practices, and he’s been out since Week 3. So the secondary will get a little boost, but it is still an excellent matchup for Herbert.
After missing a game, Quentin Johnston will return as Herbert’s likely WR1. And he will be a welcome addition back into the lineup as the game has the second-most projected points on the slate. The Chargers throw it the fourth-most times per game, and I don’t expect that to change against the Colts.
Contrarian Play: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (6.7k)
Being pancaked between Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott, with a 52.5-game total, will make anyone a contrarian play. Now, Hurts does have a tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. However, they have been quietly bad against the run. They are 25th in estimated points added against the run.
I predict Jalen Hurts will tuck and run more effectively than he has in the past two weeks. The absence of that element has hampered this Eagles offense.
The Minnesota Vikings also blitz the second-most in the NFL. So Jalen Hurts will have to make quick processing decisions. And he has been quite good against the blitz this far. Hurts has a 66.7% completion percentage against the blitz, which is good for 10th in the league. I will say that I like Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott more. However, Hurts is a great contrarian play today.
Favorite Play: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns (6k)
I do not care how many DraftKings lineups Judkins will be in today. The Miami Dolphins run defense is a favorable matchup for any running back. Add the weather, and Judkins has a matchup you can not pass on. The Dolphins are 32nd in run defense EPA. We have seen Kimani Vidal, Rico Dowdle, and James Cook dominate this team on the ground in the past few weeks. This team is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back. Nothing more needs to be said besides that; hopefully, the offensive line will hold up for this great spot.
Contrarian Play: J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos (5.6k)
Dobbins is not getting talked about enough as a DraftKings play in a great matchup. That may be because he only put up four PPR points in a decent matchup last week against the Jets. I will attribute that to the game being across the pond and how it turned out to be a pretty weird game. Now, he gets an even better matchup. The Giants are 27th in rush EPA, even after they blanked Saquon Barkley in primetime.
Dobbins is the full-time starter and is tenth in rushing attempts. He will get the full workload in a great scheme matchup against the Giants. Don’t be nervous about last week’s results from both the Giants and Dobbins.
Favorite Play: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (7.5k)
Lamb is finally back in his first game since Week 3. And he picked the perfect week to come back. The total for this game is sitting at 53.5 points. That is the highest on the slate. And it makes perfect sense as there will be no defensive stops in this afternoon’s game. Lamb will also have no restrictions on his return to game action.
Dak is playing at an MVP level, and this Cowboys offense is ideal for fantasy. Lamb had 24 targets in his first two games, and I would expect a similar target share heading into Week 7. It is worth noting that George Pickens has emerged as a superstar in his absence. Lamb is always a top-tier play, but he could be in store for something special this week. If this game plays out the way we think it does.
Contrarian Play: Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers (4.7k)
Golden has seen his involvement in the offense increase over the past few weeks. And he has had three straight double-digit fantasy performances to show for it. The Arizona Cardinals have been good against opposing receivers; they allow the 12th fewest fantasy points to receivers.
That statistic is primarily due to star rookie corner Will Johnson. Luckily for Golden, Johnson doesn’t travel to the slot, where Golden frequents. Add in the fact that Josh Jacobs is a game-time decision. The passing offense will likely see a boost, whether he plays or not. Golden is one of my favorite punt plays on DraftKings, and I predict he catches a long touchdown.
Favorite Play: Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts (5.2k)
Josh Downs will miss this game against the Chargers. And that benefits Tyler Warren the most as they command targets in the same part of the field. Tyler Warren’s average target depth is 6.4 yards, and Josh Downs’s is 6.8 yards. The Los Angeles Chargers are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position. However, with Warren’s workload, that does not matter. Warren has had one TE2 finish and two TE3 finishes this year. I believe this is the week he finishes as TE1 with the lack of target competition and likely positive game script.
Contrarian Play: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (4.1k)
Henry feels like an afterthought after Drake Maye’s stellar game against the Saints. Henry only had three catches for 27 yards, while Drake Maye threw three touchdowns and looked like a franchise quarterback. The tight end saw 11 targets in Week 3 and finished as TE1 with 29 DraftKings points. Since then, he’s only seen nine targets. The lack of involvement recently has caused people to forget about him.
Despite the few down weeks, he is still second in air yards and fourth in red zone targets on the season. His red zone target rate is 28.6%, good for first on the team. Hunter Henry at $4,100, most managers would rather have one of the top options or someone close to the minimum salary on DraftKings. Henry finds himself in a forgotten tier, but should see quality targets even with a bit of wind.
Final Thoughts
This DraftKings slate feels condensed to two high-scoring games and many great matchup plays. I would focus on the high-scoring games, but there are a few sneaky games where things could turn out positively for DraftKings users. The Las Vegas Raiders, with Ashton Jeanty, and Justin Fields with the New York Jets, could be in great spots. This week on DraftKings is a great one to take a risk, even potentially playing the game with the weather. And best of luck during Week 7’s DraftKings slate.
