It’s an interesting matchup tonight to begin Week 12. With C.J. Stroud still dealing with a concussion, we get another week of Davis Mills under center for the Houston Texans. While the former is clearly a better quarterback than the latter, it hasn’t hurt Houston too much, as they have won two games in a row. The Buffalo Bills are in a fight for first place and did a solid job rebounding last week with a victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An over/under of 43.5 means we should have an average offensive game with the visiting Bills favored by six points. Now, let’s dig into our Thursday Night Football DFS picks so you can set that winning lineup.
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Thursday Night Football DFS Notes
Set Woody Free
When it comes to Woody Marks, we have both good and bad news. Let’s start with the good. It has taken a large chunk of the season, but it appears that Marks finally sits atop Houston’s depth chart at running back. Last week, he carried the ball 18 times compared to just three for Nick Chubb. The bad news, though, is that it resulted in just 44 yards. And that came against a Tennessee Titans defense that has real struggles against the run.
This week, Marks gets another crack at things. It also comes in a favorable matchup as the Buffalo Bills are ranked 31st in DraftKings points allowed to opposing running backs. With 348 yards on 99 carries, it hasn’t been a straight line to success for Marks, but he does have four touchdowns. And now, he has control of the backfield in a good matchup.
Let’s Make it Four
The Texans are going to have to play a complete offensive game tonight, which means a likely large involvement from Nico Collins. Over the past three weeks, it hasn’t been an issue. In that stretch, Collins is averaging 7.7 catches for 101 yards as showing that he’s a capable number one receiver.
That hadn’t been the case all season, but Collins is coming on strong. For the Texans to defeat Buffalo tonight, they’re going to need another big game out of Collins. From a DFS perspective, we’re here for it.
Follow the Ball
It’s production and DFS points we are after, which means we need players who have the ball in their hands. Considering every Buffalo play starts with Josh Allen, that’s a good place to start.
The problem, though, is that we have limits. There’s a salary cap to consider, and Allen is the most expensive player. Another problem is that the Texans are allowing the fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. Allen is a dual threat, so that helps. He already has 10 rushing touchdowns and 351 rushing yards, so that does provide a nice floor. It’s also what sets Allen apart from other quarterbacks.
We Need Two
While Nico Collins is performing as a true WR1, that also means there’s room for a friend. In that case, it’s Jayden Higgins who has emerged as his sidekick. Considering Higgins has been targeted seven times in each of the past two weeks, we’re getting the rookie at a solid price. In that stretch, he has nine catches for 97 yards and his third touchdown of the season. If the Bills happen to focus on Collins, Higgins will be in position to take advantage.
Will Tonight be the First?
With Keon Coleman slated to miss another week, someone has to step up aside from Khalil Shakir. Also working in Joshua Palmer’s favor is that both Dalton Kincaid and Curtis Samuel will be sidelined tonight. That means Josh Allen needs an alternate target, and that figures to be Palmer.
Again, the price is helpful when lineup building, but we are also going off speculation. Last week, Palmer caught two of five targets for 17 yards. I’d look for that to expand this week, along with Palmer catching his first touchdown of the season against Houston.
Hello Old Friend
For as much as Palmer is intriguing, Gabe Davis deserves our attention as well. The former Bill is back for more after making his season debut last week. Davis caught three of his four targets last week for 40 yards, and things should only go up from here. The fact that he’s cheaper than Palmer and already familiar with Buffalo and Josh Allen also helps.
He’s Going to Cook
The performances have been up and down on a weekly basis, which hurts from a DFS perspective, but the overall body of work is legit. James Cook is averaging 97 rushing yards per game with eight touchdowns in another strong season. Behind Allen, he’s going to be the second most utilized player tonight. Even in a tough matchup, that, along with the skills, has to count for something.
Mills Has Been Solid
He’s not really going to run, although he did pick up a touchdown two weeks ago, but Davis Mills has been solid. After throwing for just 137 yards against a tough Denver defense, Mills picked it up with 292 and 274 passing yards in the next two games. He has three touchdowns in that stretch, and while things won’t be easy against a tough Buffalo defense, it should be another solid performance. If it fits, do it, but if not, Mills isn’t a must-play tonight, especially in tournaments, but some exposure is fine.
Check out all of our Week 12 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
TNF DFS Picks and Rankings
| Rnk | Pos | Player | Team | DK Salary | FD Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | Josh Allen | BUF | $12,400 | $1,360 |
| 2 | RB | James Cook III | BUF | $11,400 | $12,000 |
| 3 | WR | Nico Collins | HOU | $11,200 | $12,400 |
| 4 | RB | Woody Marks | HOU | $9,200 | $10,400 |
| 5 | WR | Jayden Higgins | HOU | $4,600 | $7,300 |
| 6 | WR | Gabe Davis | BUF | $3,800 | $5,000 |
| 7 | QB | Davis Mills | HOU | $9,600 | $11,600 |
| 8 | TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU | $6,400 | $7,400 |
| 9 | WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF | $8,000 | $9,600 |
| 10 | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | $5,000 | $6,800 |
| 11 | K | Matt Prater | BUF | $5,200 | $6,600 |
| 12 | DST | Bills | BUF | $4,800 | $6,400 |
| 13 | WR | Joshua Palmer | BUF | $4,200 | $4,800 |
| 14 | DST | Texans | HOU | $4,400 | $6,200 |
| 15 | TE | Dawson Knox | BUF | $4,000 | $4,600 |
| 16 | RB | Ty Johnson | BUF | $3,400 | $3,400 |
| 17 | RB | Nick Chubb | HOU | $3,200 | $5,800 |
| 18 | WR | Jaylin Noel | HOU | $1,600 | $4,200 |
| 19 | WR | Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | $3,000 | $5,400 |
| 20 | WR | Christian Kirk | HOU | $2,800 | $7,200 |
| 21 | RB | Ray Davis | BUF | $1,400 | $2,400 |
| 22 | WR | Elijah Moore | BUF | $1,000 | $2,800 |
Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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