Week 16 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts

After a crazy opening round of the Fantasy playoffs, where we saw Kyle Pitts lead every player in points, it’s time to move on to the semis! If you’re like me, you aren’t quite sure how your ragtag team got here (again, thank you, Kyle Pitts), and your team could use a spark to survive. Well, you came to the right place, because I’ve got some great picks for our Week 16 Sneaky Starts!

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Week 15 Recap

We had an alright slate of calls in Week 15.

Chris Rodriguez was a late-week scratch, so we won’t be able to count him into our totals. That’s too bad because Jacory Croskey-Merritt put on a show and proved that the matchup was sound.

We did have two decent WR picks in Khalil Shakir and Jayden Reed. Both hit double-digit fantasy points and finished in the Top-36 at the position. Neither had a great game, but they certainly didn’t lose you your week.

Stefon Diggs did. Three catches for 26 yards was not the box score that you wanted to see in the playoffs. Thankfully, he was our lone dud.

Sneaky Start Season Tally: 29-27

With only two weeks left, let’s make sure we stay above .500 and secure our championship tickets with our Week 16 Sneaky Starts.

Week 16 Sneaky Starts

Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals RB vs. Atlanta Falcons

Michael Carter feels like the ex-boyfriend who always ends up getting another chance. He’ll be on decent terms for a while, eventually get the boot, but then find himself back in the team’s good graces when they’re desperate. Well, the Cardinals are desperate again.

Bam Knight was just put on season-ending IR, making Carter and Emari Demarcado the de facto starters. While I do think Demarcado has more big-play upside, Carter has gotten the bulk of the work this season when it’s been just the two of them.

Carter is a bit undersized, and it’s shown in his efficiency on the ground. His 4.0 ypc on 14 attempts last week was actually his most efficient game of the season with at least seven carries. He’s been able to make up for this and deliver some decent fantasy output, due to his pass-catching upside.

Carter has caught 28 of his 36 targets on the year, which is a very respectable 78% catch rate. His 8.3 yards per reception is the second-best of his career. Even without being the starter, he has three straight games with at least four targets. Jacoby Brissett isn’t afraid to run, but he’s still smart enough to check it down most of the time.

Atlanta has a decent defense against receivers, but has struggled on the ground this year. They give up the 8^th most rushing yards, on average.

While it likely won’t be the prettiest game to watch, Carter should easily receive double-digit carries in this game, along with a handful of targets. Finishing as an RB2 on the week feels not only possible, but probable.

Audric Estime, New Orleans Saints RB vs. New York Jets

I’ll forgive you for not knowing Audric Estime is on the Saints. I’ll also forgive you for not knowing who Audric Estime is.

Estime found himself on the outside looking in with Denver this year, before getting traded to NOLA. He’s appeared in two games for the Saints, so far, and has produced 11 yards on three carries in both of them. He caught three passes in three targets in their most recent game.

The Saints lost Devin Neal in Week 15, after previously losing Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller earlier this season. This leaves the backfield wide open for Estime and Evan Hull.

I prefer Estime due to his size and pass-catching abilities. Hull only has one target to his name on the season, and was in New Orleans already when Estime was brought over. If the team had been comfortable thrusting Hull in if needed, I don’t think they would have made that trade. Estime just has a more well-rounded skillset that the team could utilize in most situations.

He gets a prime opportunity on Sunday to prove he belongs in the league when he gets to take on the Jets. New York is giving up the fourth most rushing yards in the league. They’ll also have a hard time staying on the field with third-stringer Brady Cook under center.

As is usually the case at this point in the season, opportunity is everything. I expect Estime to get the bulk of the carries for a team that is improving each week on offense. While the game as a whole will probably be pretty ugly, Estime could be a bright spot for fantasy.

Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets WR @ New Orleans Saints

Since we’re already talking about this matchup, we might as well highlight Mitchell next.

We already know that Brady Cook is getting the start. He is likely going to struggle against the surprisingly decent Saints defense. Cook has turned the ball over five times in the past two games. I don’t expect that to change against New Orleans. This is a rare instance where New Orleans might get a decent lead early. If they do, playing from behind will benefit Mitchell.

Since being acquired by the Jets five weeks ago, Mitchell has been the team’s WR1. He’s gotten at least six targets in every game so far and has scored twice. While I wouldn’t expect a ton of downfield throws from the rookie, Mitchell is the type of player who can take any of them to the house.

New Orleans hasn’t allowed many passing yards per game, but that is a bit of a hollow stat since they have faced the fewest pass attempts in the league. They’ve been in mostly negative game scripts where their opponents run out the clock. While I do think the Saints are the better team in this matchup, it will likely be more competitive than not.

Week 16 sneaky starts are not always going to be pretty. While you could take a shot on a better team’s WR2 or 3, I like having the known volume going into my semi-final matchup.

Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams TE @ Seattle

There’s nothing like starting a player on Thursday against the best defense in the league. It’s not a play for the faint of heart, but there are reasons for optimism.

Parkinson is coming off a two-touchdown effort in Week 15. He’s scored in five of the past six games.

The team will also be without Davante Adams, who has scored 14 touchdowns on the season, nine of which have come within the five-yard line. So, the team has shown that they aren’t afraid to throw the ball when they get close, and they just lost their biggest target.

While the Seahawks’ defense has been elite this year, their biggest struggle has been against tight ends. They are giving up the 10^th most fantasy points to the position.

There’s also the fact that Matthew Stafford is currently the odds leader for MVP. McVay is the type of coach willing to help players pad their stats. If they get a chance to throw a touchdown instead of running it in, expect them to take it.

Parkinson has been sneaky good this year, operating in Adams and Nacua’s shadows. He should step into a more prominent role on offense so long as the former is sidelined. In a pivotal division matchup, I expect him to make a big splash.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!