As we dive into Week 16 of the 2025 Fantasy Football season, the stakes could not be higher. Fantasy playoffs are in full swing, and now is the time to make those strategic roster calls that could mean the difference between winning and losing. As we gear up for another thrilling week of DFS, let’s highlight five critical factors we need to consider for Week 16.
5 Things to Consider for the Fantasy Playoffs and DFS in Week 16:
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Teams That Have Something to Play For
Focus on players from teams that are still in the playoff race or fighting for positioning. Motivation can play a key role in performance, as these players are likely to see full game time and put in the effort to secure crucial wins.
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Player Matchups
Evaluate the individual matchups for your players against the opposing team’s defense. Look for favorable matchups against defenses that struggle at certain positions, particularly for key players like quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Exploiting these favorable matchups can lead to significant fantasy production.
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Game Script Predictions
Anticipate how a game is likely to unfold. Predict whether it will be a high-scoring affair or a defensive battle. Understanding the game script can help determine which players are likely to thrive based on offensive or defensive strategies, allowing you to make informed lineup decisions.
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Volume Trends
Analyze recent trends in player usage and volume. Look for players who are consistently receiving high targets or carries, as higher volume tends to lead to better fantasy production. Players who are central to their team’s offensive game plan are more likely to deliver results.
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Injury Reports
Stay up to date with injury reports leading into game day. Injuries can open up opportunities for backups or impact the performance of starters. Knowing who is healthy and available can help make pivotal start/sit decisions and identify potential value plays.
By keeping these factors in mind as we approach Week 16, you’ll be better equipped to make critical lineup decisions that enhance your chances of success in the fantasy playoffs and in DFS. Let’s dive into this week’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers!
More Week 16 Fantasy Football Fun!: | Sneaky Starts | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire | Weekly Sleepers & Streamers | Starts & Sits | Skrip’s Week Winners | NFL DFS | NFL Player Props | IDP Analysis | Bold Predictions | Survivor Picks | NFL Injury Report | Dynasty Trade Targets | Weekly Rankings | Dynasty Risers and Fallers
Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 16 NFL DFS
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone who might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has cooled off after starting the season blazing hot. This week, he travels to Dallas to face a Cowboys defense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 270 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game against the Cowboys. So, Herbert can forget about all that ails him and get straight to Week 16. With the highest over-under on the slate, Herbert will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Cowboys’ offense.
- FanDuel $8000
- DraftKings $6000
JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy has two straight games of scoring more than 20 fantasy points. In Week 16 he gets to play against a Giants defense that gives up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. JJ has scored three touchdowns in each of those games. McCarthy has responded to the easy part of his schedule by tearing it up. We like that. This JJ is the new “Kid Dyn-O-mite”. If you know that reference, damn you are old.
- FanDuel $6500
- DraftKings $4900
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
In Week 16, the Cardinals will play the Falcons at home in Arizona. The Falcons are middle-of-the-road in defending the pass. Brissett has passed for multiple touchdowns in eight out of nine games this season. He has the highest floor, averaging around 20 points per game. The Cardinals will pass the ball a lot. Brissett averages 42.8 attempts per game. This isn’t even a “being cute” play anymore.
- FanDuel $7500
- DraftKings $5300
Other Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Week 16
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
- FanDuel $8100
- DraftKings $6300
Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
- FanDuel $6800
- DraftKings $5400
Gardner Minshew, Kansas City Chiefs
- FanDuel $6500
- DraftKings $4500
Quarterback Notes: Minshew really is a sneaky play in Week 16. You can also consider throwing darts at: Quin Ewer (Dolphins) against the Bengals, Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) against the Lions, and even Bryce Young (Panthers) against the Buccaneers.
Running Backs
Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins play the Bengals in Week 16. The Bengals give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Nineteen different running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Bengals. Achane is one of those rare players who, if the team is winning, carry the ball to run the clock out, and if the team is losing, catch passes to try to help them get back in the game. He does it all. Even with Tua sitting, I am playing Achane in Week 16.
- FanDuel $9800
- DraftKings $8800
Audric Estime, New Orleans Saints
If Devin Neal is out, Estime is the play in Week 16 against a Jets defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. When Neal went down, Estime split the snaps with Evan Hull, but Neal out-touched Hull 6 to 4 and did a bit more with his touches. Estime had three carries for 11 yards and saw three targets, which he turned into three receptions and 39 yards. He is an excellent play in Week 16.
- FanDuel $4900
- DraftKings $5000
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne is the dominant back on the Jaguars. He is coming off a game where he had three receiving touchdowns. We aren’t chasing points here. Really, we are not. It is unlikely the Jaguars have another healthy running back they can put into action in Week 16. Which means Etienne will get the snaps and all the opportunities. He is involved in the offense, both running and catching the ball. HE has scored 14 or more fantasy points in six of the last seven games. Bonjour Monsieur, Travis Etienne vous aidera a gagner. Yes, that is French.
- FanDuel $7400
- DraftKings $7000
Other Running Backs DFS Picks for Week 16
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
- FanDuel $9600
- DraftKings $8700
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
- FanDuel $6800
- DraftKings $5800
Woody Marks, Houston Texans
- FanDuel $7100
- DraftKings $6600
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
It is a tale as old as time, start your wide receivers against the Cowboys. Why? The Cowboys give up the most fantasy points to the opposing team’s wide receivers. The Cowboys give up 12 receptions, 169 yards, and 1,7 touchdowns on average weekly to wide receivers. You may want to start Ladd McConkey as well. I chose Allen because he leads the Chargers in targets and receptions. This is an easy one, any Chargers wide receiver is playable.
- FanDuel $6100
- DraftKings $4800
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers
Metcalf has put together two good games in a row. In Week 14, he had seven receptions and 148 yards, and in Week 15, he had three receptions, 55 yards, and a touchdown. IN Week 16, he gets to play against a Lions defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Wide receivers average 12 receptions and 172 yards per game against the Lions. This game also has the highest over/under on the slate at 52 points.
- FanDuel $7400
- DraftKings $5400
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
With the highest over-under, if you play Metcalf, you might want to run that back with the Sun God. St. Brown is having yet another fantastic season; he has 135 targets, 94 receptions, 1140 yards, and 11 touchdowns so far. In Week 16, the Steelers will not put up a massive fight to stop him from adding to those totals. The Steelers give up the eleventh most fantasy points to wide receivers. Put on your sunglasses, break out the SPF 50, and get prepared for the Sun God to shine.
- FanDuel $9200
- DraftKings $8400
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 16
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
- FanDuel $8500
- DraftKings $7500
Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
- FanDuel $7200
- DraftKings $6900
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
- FanDuel $6600
- DraftKings $5700
Tight Ends
Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins
Waller is back in the full swing of things for the Dolphins. In Week 15, Waller had an amazing stat line: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 66 yards, and 2 touchdowns. There is good news and bad news. The bad news is Tua Tagovailoa has been demoted, and Quin Ewers will be starting at quarterback for the Dolphins in Week 16. The Good news is the Dolphins will play the Bengals. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. If this rookie quarterback depends on his tight end like he should, Waller will have another massive fantasy day.
- FanDuel $5500
- DraftKings $3500
Trey McBride – Falcons
Speaking of massive fantasy days. In Week 15, McBride had 12 receptions, 134 yards, and two touchdowns. In the nine games Jacoby Brissett started at quarterback, McBride scored nine touchdowns. The Falcons technically give up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. I would say the match-up is bad, but Trey is a hybrid TE/WR. He lines up in the slot, and out wide, he is used all over the formations. As the top option in the Cardinals’ passing game, he is a good play against the Falcons.
- FanDuel $8800
- DraftKings $7600
Other Tight End DFS Picks for Week 16
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
- FanDuel $600
- DraftKings $5000
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals
- FanDuel $5100
- DraftKings $3600
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
- FanDuel $6300
- DraftKings $4700
Defense
Houston Texans
The Texans are simply the best fantasy defense. They also have the luxury in Week 16 to play against the Raiders, who give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. The Raiders give up the most sacks per game at 3.9. You can expect the Texans to get after Kenny Pickett and force him to make mistakes.
- FanDuel $5000
- DraftKings $4000
New Orleans Saints
The Saints will play the Jets in Week 16. In the last two games, the Jets have given up nine sacks and six interceptions. The Saints offer an inexpensive option for a defense that could pay off big. This was short and sweet; the Saints’ fantasy score will be sweet too.
- FanDuel $3500
- DraftKings $3400
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are playing the Dolphins in Week 16. The Dolphins give up the tenth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. The Dolphins are also starting Autin Ewer at quarterback. The rookie has only played a portion of one game so far this season. The Dolphins were already bad, and now they are throwing a rookie into his first start. The Bengals may prove to be a good spot to start this week and get 8 to 10 fantasy points.
- FanDuel $3000
- DraftKings $2500
Check out all of our Week 16 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
💔Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Kenny Pickett, Las Vegas Raiders
See Houston Texans Defense above. Man, that was easy. The Texans give up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Only Jacoby Brissett has had a good fantasy day against them.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
In Week 16, the Cowboys will play the Chargers, and the Chargers give up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. I expect Dak to pass the ball a lot. The Cowboys have an excellent offense. This is just one of those floor games, which means I do not want to play him in DFS.
Jaxson Dart. New York Giants
Dart has been fantastic. He throws the ball and then runs all over the field. Dart takes hits. The kid is a real football player. I love him. This week, though, he is playing against a Vikings defense that gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. I hate that.
Running Backs
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
The Jaguars, who give up the second fewest points to running backs, are the opponent for Week 16. Harvey could end up looking like a giant invisible rabbit this week.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenneth Gainwell appears to be more valuable in the passing game than Warren is. The Lions give up the third fewest fantasy points to running backs. Those two factors alone mean I am out in Warren this week. I do like Gainwell to potentially see a large volume of targets in this game. For Week 16 – Warren bad, Gainwell good.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard has done almost nothing to make anyone want to play him. In Week 16, the Titans play the Chiefs. The Chiefs are tough against the run. If you had to play Pollard at all this season, I am sure he broke your heart already; you do not need to re-live that pain over and over again.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
If you have Lamb in season long, you are playing him. Sometimes people read these things and think it means sitting Lamb for someone like Jalen Coker (who I do like this week). It does not mean that. What it means is the Cowboys are playing the Chargers, and the Chargers defend wide receivers better than any team in the league. Lamb is a no-no in DFS.
WanDale Robinson, New York Giants
The Giants play the Vikings in Week 16. The Vikings give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Let’s face it Robinson has basically been a matchup play all season. This season, the matchup is bad. Feel free to find a better option.
Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raider
The Raiders will play the Texans in Week 16. The Texans defend everything well. Tucker has not surpassed 30 yards in the past four games. He was a complete wash in Week 15 with three targets, zero catches, and 0 yards. I know you weren’t playing him anyway, but sometimes I like the wide-open layup.
Tight Ends
Harold Fannin, Cleveland Browns
Yes, I know Fannin is the only person Shedeur Sanders seems to be able to get the ball to on a weekly basis. I am well aware of that. I am also aware that the Browns play the Bills in Week 16. The Bills you see give up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Only one tight end has had a good game against them this season. The Browns Running Backs will be very busy in Week 16.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Schultz has been great against teams that do not defend the tight end well. He is also more into those games. What does that mean? It means Schultz is game-scripted in by the coaching staff when the matchup is good against a defense. He is also game-scripted out when the defense defends tight ends. The Raiders are up, and they defend the tight end well. I know you want to chase his eight receptions, 76 yards, and a touchdown from last week. Please do not chase that; it is a trap.
Gunnar Helm, Tennessee Titans
The Titans play the Chiefs in Week 16. The Chiefs defend tight ends pretty well. I love the name Gunnar Helm; he sounds like a superhero, but in Week 16, he is a dud. His floor is one reception area for eight yards; this is a floor week. We like high floors; we don’t like bottomless pits. This is the pits.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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