Thursday Football DFS Picks – Christmas Special

Now, this is how you celebrate a holiday. We have three Thursday football games to enjoy. Of course, with no Patrick Mahomes, Jaylen Daniels, and JJ McCarthy, the games are taking on a different flavor. However, that doesn’t mean they are any less exciting; just different.

What was supposed to be an exciting nightcap is now a letdown as the Kansas City Chiefs are merely playing out the string. It has been a rough year for both NFC North foes as the Minnesota Vikings are out of the playoff picture and starting undrafted rookie Max Brosmer with McCarthy injured. They face a Detroit Lions team that now retains just an outside chance at the postseason. The day begins with the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders playing out the string in what, at least, should be an exciting and high-scoring divisional matchup.

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With three games to choose from, this isn’t your typical Thursday Night DFS slate. Of course, you can always defer back to Showdown Slates, but the slate also allows you to build a full lineup. Now, let’s dig into our Thursday Night Football DFS picks so you can set that winning lineup.

Thursday DFS Slate

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders – Commanders -7 and over/under of 50.5 points

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings – Lions -7.5 and over/under of 43.5 points

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs – Broncos -13.5 and over/under of 36.5 points

Thursday Night Football DFS Notes

What’s Your Risk Tolerance Under Center

Based on value today, Marcus Mariota was your guy. Given the injuries at the quarterback position, we are essentially starting the day with four options under center. I’m not sure we can consider Max Brosmer or Chris Oladokun unless you really want to be different or have an insane risk tolerance.

Oladokun likely has no chance to be productive against a stout Denver Broncos defense. It’s possible Brosmer finds some success against the Detroit Lions, but all I can think of are the four interceptions he threw against the Seattle Seahawks a few weeks ago.

Mariota was getting the benefit of facing a weak Dallas defense in what projects to be the highest scoring game of the day. But as Mariota hasn’t participated in practice this week and is dealing with leg injuries, we can’t expect him to be available either. That brings us to Josh Johnson. While the veteran has been around the league, he only has 43 passing yards on the season. The good news is that the Cowboys allow the most DFS points to opposing quarterbacks.

That then brings us to the favorites. I have nothing against Bo Nix, but to say the game plan will be conservative might be an understatement. He’ll make a few plays, but the Broncos will likely be sitting on the ball for the entire second half.

Jared Goff is a strong option for a desperate Lions team, but the Vikings allow the fewest DFS points to opposing quarterbacks.

Based on what’s left, there’s one quarterback that will likely be rostered in the majority of leagues. The issue, though, is that he’s also the most expensive and comes with the most expensive receivers if you are looking to stack.

Follow the Matchup

So far this season, the Washington Commanders are allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs. In a game where the Dallas Cowboys are favored by a touchdown, that’s all I need to hear. Javonte Williams is averaging 77 yards per game this season and has 12 touchdowns in what has been a resurgent season.

At the top of the list, Jahmyr Gibbs continues to be a dominant option, and he, too, is favored by a touchdown. Of course, Gibbs doesn’t come cheap, and the Minnesota Vikings do have a strong defense that removes some of the luster.

Based on the point spreads, the Denver Broncos should be in clear control of things. That means RJ Harvey should be busy in the second half controlling the clock and tempo. In a loss to Jacksonville last week, Harvey only carried the ball seven times, but he did gain 50 yards and score a touchdown. It was also a good sign to see him catch four passes for 71 yards. Especially on the short slate, it’s hard to ignore Harvey.

Will Today be the Day?

The Dallas Cowboys allow the most DK points to opposing wide receivers. That means the obvious inclination is going to be to target Terry McLaurin. However, for multiple factors, it’s been an up-and-down season for him.

McLaurin has missed a good portion, which helps to explain why he has just 29 catches for 462 yards and three touchdowns. However, facing the Cowboys this week might be just what McLaurin needs, regardless of who is the quarterback.

How Low Will You Go?

Based on our options, the tight end position is tough for Thursday’s slate.

Travis Kelce hasn’t shown much as of late, and the Chiefs are on their third-string quarterback. Prior to last week, Kelce was performing at a high level, but after catching just one pass for six yards, can we trust him?

The Minnesota Vikings having to go back to Max Brosmer at quarterback could be a good thing for John Oliver. When Brosmer last played, his tight end was the rookie’s leading receiver with six catches for 59 yards. This week, I’d expect Brosmer to lock in on John Oliver now that TJ Hockenson is out, which should lead to solid DFS production.

While I want to like Jake Ferguson in a strong matchup against Washington, he’s also gone five games without a touchdown. The good news is that we get Ferguson, well, really all the tight ends, at a solid price point.

Week 17 TNF DFS Picks

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