Week 18 NFL DFS: Money Makers and Heart Breakers

Welcome back. For your pleasure, I am ending the regular season of MMHB in anapestic tetrameter, which means I am pretending to be Dr. Seuss. Happy New Year!

NOTE: Yes, I looked up the official name of his style. You didn’t expect me to know what anapestic tetrameter meant, did you?

Oh the Money we will Make

Hello, Week 18; yes, here we are,
The final stop before the playoffs is afar.
The end of the road, the last fantasy test,
Where variance is king, and nothing’s a guess… or the best.

The key to this week? Who’s in and who’s out,
Who still has a goal worth fighting about.
Some teams need wins, some need a look,
Some rest their stars and rewrite the book.

If a team’s out of it, starters may sit,
Unless they’re evaluating who’s actually it.
Young legs get chances, vets take a seat,
And your lineup security melts in the heat.

Then there are incentives; oh yes, those are fun,
A bonus for yards, or touchdowns, or one
More catches, one more sacks, one last big play,
That might get chased… or might fade away.

So tread lightly, my friends, read news by the hour,
Week 18 fantasy is all about power:
The power of info, the power to know,
Who’s playing for something and who’s just a show.

Let’s dig through the madness, the makers, the breaks,
The heroes who pay… and the heart-crushing mistakes.
It’s Week 18 hold tight to your seats,

Now let’s win some money, you DFS freaks!

More Week 18 Fantasy Football Fun!: | Sneaky Starts | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire | Weekly Sleepers & Streamers | Starts & Sits | Skrip’s Week Winners | NFL DFS | NFL Player Props | IDP Analysis | Bold Predictions | Survivor Picks | NFL Injury Report | Dynasty Trade Targets | Weekly Rankings | Dynasty Risers and Fallers

Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 18 NFL DFS

Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone who might be new:

💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations

💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations

💰 Money Makers

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have a lot to play for right now. Hurts is coming off a challenging game against the Bills (he lived up to my calling him a Heart Breaker last week). This week, the Eagles will play the Commanders, who give up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In the past four games, every quarterback has passed for multiple touchdowns and scored over 23 fantasy points. This will be a bounce-back game; the Eagles will push Hurts’ tush to success.

• FanDuel $8500
• DraftKings $6500

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

The Giants play the Cowboys in Week 18. The Cowboys give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks, and it is not even close. Quarterbacks average 268 yards and two touchdowns passing per game against the Cowboys. No defense has given up more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks than the Cowboys, who have given up eight. Dart is coming off a game in which he ran for two touchdowns and passed for 20 yards. This is not really a dart throw.

• FanDuel $7100
• DraftKings $5700

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

The Bears and Lions game looks like a potential shootout. It is the second-highest over-under on the main slate at 50.5 points. The Lions, you see, also give up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. To top it all off, Caleb is playing the best football of his short career; he has four straight games with two passing touchdowns, and it does not look like he is slowing down now. Look for Williams to sling it around a little bit at home this Sunday. The only question should be what color nail polish he will have on.

• FanDuel $7800
• DraftKings $5900

Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 18

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

• FanDuel $8600
• DraftKings $7100

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

• FanDuel $9000
• DraftKings $7000

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

• FanDuel $8200
• DraftKings $6400

Running Backs

Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns

The Browns are not very good. The Bengals also have not been very good this year. Neither team has a hell of a lot to play for. But the Bengal give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Sampson is a backup running back looking to make a case for himself. I expect him to be more involved as a pass catcher than a pure runner.

• FanDuel $5700
• DraftKings $5200

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

The Bills need a win in Week 18 to secure seeding. Cook has been one of their best offensive weapons. This week, he gets to run against a Jets defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to running backs. The Jets have given up six touchdowns to running backs over the past three games. James will be cooking in the first half of this Week 18 game.

• FanDuel $9000
• DraftKings $7900

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Williams is coming off a game where he had 130 total yards. In Week 18, he faces a Cardinals defense that gives up the third most fantasy points to running backs. Running backs also average the fourth most rushing yards against the Cardinals with 112 per week. Blake Corum, who splits carries with Williams, hurt his ankle in Week 17 and will most likely sit out in Week 18. The Rams will play their starters in Week 18, as they want to win and secure a better playoff position. In Kyren, I trust.

• FanDuel $7900
• DraftKings $6700

Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 18

Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

• FanDuel $7500
• DraftKings $6300

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

• FanDuel $8800
• DraftKings $7200

Rhamonde Stevenson, New England Patriots

• FanDuel $6300
• DraftKings $5600

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants

In Week 17 against the Raiders, Robinson saw 14 targets, which he turned into 11 receptions and 113 yards. That was a massive 47% target share of passes for the Giants. The matchup was excellent. Guess what? The matchup for Week 18 is even better. This week, the Cowboys are up; the Cowboys give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Wide receivers average 12 receptions, 173 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns per game against the Cowboys. One hundred seventy-three yards is the most given up weekly to the position. This game has the highest over-under on the Main Slate at 51.5, which means even the oddsmakers think it will be a shootout. Wan’Dale is turning up the volume in Week 18.

• FanDuel $6300
• DraftKings $6100

Luther Burden, Chicago Bears

I am planning for Rome Odunze to be out as of the writing of this article. In Week 17, Burden was second on the Bears in targets with nine but had the most receptions with eight. Burden had 138 yards and a touchdown in that game. The Lions are up in Week 18, and they give up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. I would look for Luther to keep it going in Week 18. Plugging him into your lineup will not be a burden this week.

• FanDuel $6100
• DraftKings $5300

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

The last time the Lions played the Bears was Week 2. In that game, St. Brown saw 11 targets. He turned those into nine receptions, 115 yards, and three touchdowns. The team you see gives up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. If you need more than that for a reason to play him, I don’t know what to tell you. Sun god, sun god, how I love the good ole’ golden sun god, sun god, sun god, you’re just the thing to make my line up fine.

• FanDuel $9100
• DraftKings $7700

Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 18

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

• FanDuel $8400
• DraftKings $7000

Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars

• FanDuel $6200
• DraftKings $5100

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

• FanDuel $8300
• DraftKings $7400

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Goedert has touchdowns in three straight games. During that three-game stretch, he has 16 targets, 12 receptions, 120 yards, and four touchdowns to be specific. This week, the Eagles will play the Commanders. You guessed it, the Commanders stink at defending tight ends. The Commanders give up the second-most fantasy points to the position. He is typically the second option in the Eagles’ passing game. Expect Goedert to keep his touchdown streak going this week. Commanders, phhhhhst, they do not command anything.

• FanDuel $5700
• DraftKings $4000

Harold Fannin, Cleveland Browns

Fannin is questionable and might not play in Week 18. If Fannin is playing in Week 18, I will play with him. He is clearly Shedeur Sanders’s favorite target. And this week, the Bengals are up. All season long, you could stream tight ends against the Bengals, as they are the worst team at defending the position. give up the most to tight ends. I didn’t write about Shedeur, but it is an excellent match-up for him as well. Let’s hope Fannin will be healthy enough to go.

• FanDuel $6200
• DraftKings $5000

Other Tight End DFS Picks for Week 18

Terrence Ferguson, Los Angeles Rams

• FanDuel $4900
• DraftKings $2700

Chig Okonkow, Tennessee Titans

• FanDuel $5100
• DraftKings $3400

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

• FanDuel $5300
• DraftKings $3900

Defense

Green Bay Packers

The Packers play the Vikings in Week 18. The last time these two teams played was Week 12. In that game, the Packers had five sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, and allowed the Vikings to score only six points. The Vikings are not very good on offense. For the season, the Vikings give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

• FanDuel $4200
• DraftKings $2900

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ defense has not been good this season. They have only hit double-digit fantasy scores three times on the season. One of those times was Week 77 against the Raiders. They are the opponent for Week 18. And they give up the second-most fantasy points to defenses. The Raiders have given up 8 straight weeks of 14 or more fantasy points to defenses. Only once this season has a team scored fewer than 11 fantasy points against the Raiders, and that team managed to achieve 8 fantasy points. I am not saying it is a sure thing, but it is.

• FanDuel $3700
• DraftKings $3200

Buffalo Bills

In the past five games, the Bills’ defense has averaged 13 fantasy points per game. In the past five games, defenses playing against the Jets have averaged 20 fantasy points per game. The Jets give up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses—the most over the past five weeks. You are picking up what I am putting down here, right? Play the Bills defense with confidence in Week 18. That might be the first time I have said that this season.

• FanDuel $4400
• DraftKings $3500

💔Heart Breakers

Quarter Backs

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts

Old Man Rivers has at least one touchdown pass in all three games he has played this season. This week, the Colts play the Texans. The Texans give up the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. How good are they? Well, neither Patrick Mahomes nor Josh Allen managed to get more than six fantasy points against the Texans. Rivers will really look his age in this one.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

The Broncos play the Chargers in Week 18. The Chargers have an excellent pass defense. How good? Only one quarterback in the past nine games has managed to score more than 16 fantasy points against this defense. Jalen Hurts, who is currently the overall QB8 in fantasy for the season, only managed 4.4 fantasy points against the Chargers. This is throwing up in my mouth, yuck.

Running Backs

Tennessee Titans Running Backs

That’s right, both Tony Pollard and Tajea Spears, YUCK. Why might you ask? Because the Titans play the Jaguars in Week 18, the Jaguars give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Fewest. If you read this article, you know I like an easy one here and there. This week, Captain Obvious says no Titans running backs. I said NO.

Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals barely pass the ball. The Cardinals have a weird running back-by-committee thing going on. In Week 18, the Cardinals will play the Rams, and the Rams give up the third-fewest amount of fantasy points to running backs. Jacoby Brissett will have to pass a lot to stay in this game: game script, crappy running backs, tough defense. I hope you do not need more reasons to stay away.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

I already mentioned that the Colts play the Texans this week. I also mentioned that the Texans are very tough against the pass. The Texans allow the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Need me to say anything more here? OK, Pittman has not had more than 32 yards in the past three games. Stay away from him and every Colts wide receiver.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers play the Broncos in Week 18. The Broncos give up the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. The Chargers’ passing game tends to disappear in tough matchups. The Chargers also tend to spread the ball around on offense, so it is a roulette regarding which pass catcher may see volume. This combination leads all of us to Ladd being conked out of my lineup.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers for much of the season, but Week 18 sets up as a difficult spot. The Saints draw the Falcons, who have been one of the stingiest defenses against tight ends, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position. If Johnson isn’t being deployed heavily out wide, his path to production is narrow in this matchup.

Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders

You weren’t playing Sinnott anyway, and if, for even a moment, you thought about it, let this be the final deterrent. Washington draws the Eagles in Week 18, and Philadelphia has been the toughest matchup in football for tight ends, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position all season. We’ll close this out with one more painfully obvious stay-away.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 18 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!