Today marks the start of the divisional round of the playoffs and the start of a four-game, two-day DraftKings slate. This slate features some of the league’s toughest defenses. As there are not many excellent matchups to pick on, especially today and tomorrow afternoon. Which means many will have their eyes fixed on the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears game, which has the highest point total line this weekend. The total of that game has actually dipped from 51 points to 48.5 points. And you know what that means: weather may play a role here. Chicago will likely see winds in the 15-mile-per-hour range, with gusts potentially reaching 30 miles per hour.
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With that game being the last of the weekend, DraftKings users will have to decide on it earlier than they would like. And with the other three games featuring Denver’s, Seattle’s, Houston’s, and New England’s defenses, smash spots are few and far between. However, there is enough value on this slate to build a fantastic lineup. And we will start with taking a risk on the weather.
Favorite DraftKings NFL plays for Divisional Weekend
Quarterback
Favorite Play: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (6.6K)
Last week, you could get away with playing about 75 percent of the quarterbacks this past weekend. This week could not be any more different from the defenses previously mentioned. And for that reason, a large portion of DraftKings users will flock to Matthew Stafford. The only quarterback to have their passing touchdown line set at 2.5 touchdowns instead of 1.5 for this set of games. Stafford and the Rams also have the highest implied team total at 26.25 points. Chicago’s secondary has allowed the 11th-most passing yards and ranks 16th in estimated points added against the pass. Throw in the fact that Jordan Love finished as QB1 on DraftKings last week, and the defense allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position during the regular season. He will be popular, so if you are looking to be contrarian, look elsewhere on this slate.
Play to Consider: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (7.1K)
Despite going against the Denver Broncos, the Bills still have the fourth-highest implied total this weekend. And Allen is the sole reason for that. Even against a defense that had a better estimated points added against the pass in the Jacksonville Jaguars, he still had 30 DraftKings points. It will be tough to get points on the board against this stout defense. However, he will be a great contrarian play compared to Stafford. And we all know that Allen can turn a whole slate upside down all by himself.
Running Back
Favorite Play: Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks (5.3K)
The Seattle Seahawks found incredible success on the ground just two short weeks ago. Charbonnet totaled 74 rushing yards and scored the game’s lone touchdown. And Kenneth Walker III had 133 yards from scrimmage. The injured 49ers defense is allowing the 13th-most estimated points added against the run. Seattle is a 7-point favorite in this matchup. So expect the ground game to be a significant factor. Charbonnet is most likely to find the endzone, but this 49ers team has given up its fair share of explosive plays, as I highlighted last week with Saquon Barkley. He had a run and a catch that went for 20+ yards despite the Eagles’ lackluster offense. So keep both Seattle running backs on your radar.
Play to Consider: R.J Harvey, Denver Broncos (6.2K)
Keeping the theme of matchups highlighted last week. Harvey arguably has the best one this weekend. And at his DraftKings salary of $6,200, it is not hard to get him in your lineups. The Bills’ second-worst run defense showed up this past weekend. The Jaguars averaged 6.7 yards per carry and found great success on outside zone runs. Harvey had a strong end to his season, where he scored five times in his last six games. He has developed into the number one red zone option. And he had 40 opportunities on the season, which was double J.K. Dobbins, who was second at 20 opportunities. Harvey’s matchup and role make him an optimal DraftKings target on this slate.
Wide Receiver
Favorite Play: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams (9K)
There are three skill players with a salary over $8,000 on this DraftKings slate. And Nacua is my favorite of the group that includes Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Christian McCaffrey. He showed exactly why this past week, scoring 37.02 DraftKings points. That was the most on the entire slate, and it could have been even more as he dropped a walk-in, wide-open touchdown. Nacua’s ceiling is the highest on the slate, with him facing the worst fantasy defense against wide receivers. Put Nacua in your lineups and forget about that lineup spot till Sunday evening.
Play to Consider: Christian Kirk, Houston Texans (4.1K)
If you had told me or anyone that Christian Kirk would lead the Wild Card Round in receiving yards before the slate started, not many people would have believed you. However, that is precisely what happened as Christian Kirk totaled 144 receiving yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, Nico Collins will miss this upcoming game against the Patriots with a concussion. And Kirk will likely be the focal point of the passing game yet again. He will also avoid a matchup with star corner Christian Gonzalez. Kirk’s matchup is much more favorable against Marcus Jones, who has given up the highest passer rating and the most yards on the team. At a salary of $4,100 on DraftKings, he is a fit for any build on this slate and is a fantastic value.
Tight End
Favorite Play: Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears (5.5K)
Loveland offers a target share that no other tight end on the slate does. He received 15 targets against the Green Bay Packers last week. That was more than double the next closest, as Dallas Goedert only had seven targets against the 49ers. The Bears enter this game as 4-point underdogs and will be forced to throw against a defense that allows the 17th most points to opposing tight ends. Loveland’s DraftKings salary is $1,000 more than Hunter Henry’s, who has the second-highest salary on the site. However, it is worth the salary to jump up, as with Loveland, you are getting the focal point of the offense. With the rest of the slate, it is banking on the rest of them scoring a touchdown.
Play to Consider: A.J. Barner, Seattle Seahawks (3.6K)
Going from one end of the spectrum to the other. Barner has one of the cheapest salaries on this DraftKings slate. And yet he still has the best odds at the position to score a touchdown at +170. At a $3,600 salary on DraftKings, that is an unprecedented value. Barner is on my DraftKings radar for that alone. And I will also include Colby Parkinson, Jake Tonges, and Tyler Higbee as potential options if you want to save some DraftKings salary to fit Puka Nacua or Jaxon Smith-Njigba into your lineups.
Final Thoughts
There are still some fantastic plays on this DraftKings slate. And choosing a defense might be the hardest part. The Houston Texans were the defense you needed last week with their two touchdowns. This week, saving the salary with the San Francisco 49ers is firmly on the table. However, I would not fault anyone who picks one of the defenses up top. No matter which defense you choose, I wish everyone the best of luck, as we only have three DraftKings slates left until the offseason. So enjoy the games, as we only have seven left for a few months.
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