After the energy and chaos of the WM Phoenix Open, the PGA Tour heads back to California for one of its most iconic stops, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The tournament returns to a two-course rotation in 2026, with golfers playing one round at Spyglass Hill GC over the first two days, with Pebble Beach Golf Links taking over the spotlight for the final two rounds of the event.
With Pebble Beach getting signature event status for the third straight season, the no-cut event has a loaded field once again. Teeing it up this week are World #1 Scottie Scheffler, nine of the Top 10, and 40 of the Top 50 in the DataGolf World rankings.
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The Courses: Spyglass Hill GC & Pebble Beach Golf Links
Spyglass Hill comes in at 7,032 yards, which is one of the shortest Par 72 courses on tour. Off the tee, players see some tight fairways, which generate a well below-average fairways hit rate of around 55%. Despite that and the smaller-than-average green sizes (~5000 sq ft), the GIR rate is right at the Tour average. When looking at the average scoring at this event, Spyglass is close to a full stroke easier on average, which makes it a great target for your player pools over the first two rounds when playing showdown slates or betting player props.
Like Spyglass, Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of the shortest Par 72 courses on the PGA Tour. When it comes to scoring, it can be a little more challenging as it is also made up of the smallest green complexes on tour at just an average of 3,500 square feet. From an average scoring perspective, Pebble Beach ranks right around the Top 20 but still slightly above average when compared to the regular rotation of courses/events on tour.
From a stats modeling standpoint, this week I will be focusing mainly on Pebble Beach, which will be used for three of the four rounds.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Champion
Strokes Gained: Approach w/ Emphasis on Short to Mid Irons
The greens at Pebble Beach are the smallest on the PGA Tour and require precision to reach in regulation. This is an area where golfers who are running red-hot irons can jump up the leaderboard very quickly. With the less penal rough this week, I am looking at Overall Strokes Approach and Proximity. From a distance bucket perspective, there is a much higher rate of approaches that come from the 100-150 yard range, so that will be an area I focus on, as well.
Russell Henley (+2450 w/o Scheffler / +220 Top 10)
It has been an incredible run of consistency for Henley, who has finished Top 20 in 10 straight events with six Top 10’s, three Top 5s, and two runner-up finishes during that stretch. His success comes from being accurate off the tee and deadly with his irons. He is 3rd in this field in SG: Approach this season and 16th/5th in Proximity from 100-125 and 125-150 yards. The course history has been mixed, but he is coming off a 5th place in 2025. My favorite bet is the outright in the non-Scottie market and will also have him in the Top 10 market.
Jason Day (+3700 w/o Scheffler / +305 Top 10)
Day checks almost every box this week in my model, starting with some red-hot iron play to start the season. He is averaging 1.39 strokes gained on approach(4th best in the field) over his first two events and is also 1st in the 100-125 proximity bucket. After that is the tremendous course history as he has not only made the cut in all 15 trips to Pebble Beach, but has a runner-up, five Top 5’s, nine Top 10’s, and 13 Top 25 finishes. I will be betting the outright non-Scottie market and also throwing a Top 10 in there.
Strokes Gained: Short Game
With the very small greens this week, scrambling is going to be very important with a projected lower than average GIR rate. I am not only looking for players who can avoid bogeys and get up and down for par. I am also looking for players who can make big putts for birdie and climb the leaderboard. Let’s look at some players who fit both models this week.
Sahith Theegala (+560 Top 10 / +225 Top 20)
Theegala ranks #1 in my short game model this week, averaging 1.75 strokes gained over his first four events in 2026. That, combined with some above-average iron play (+.37 SG: APP), has led to an impressive start as he has finished 31st or better in all four of those events, including three straight Top 20’s with Top 10 finishes at the American Express and Farmers Insurance Open. I will be betting him in the secondary markets this week.
Viktor Hovland (+2200 w/o Scheffler / +210 Top 10)
He finished the 2025 season strong with a T7 at the BMW Championship and 12th at the Tour Championship. In the fall, he jumped over and played four events on the DP World Tour, finishing Top 25 in each with two Top 10 finishes. He made his debut last week at the WM Phoenix Open and not only had terrific iron play (+1.18 SG:APP) but was also excellent around(+.69 SG:ATG) and on the greens(+.92 SG:P). I love the number in the non-Scottie market and will also be betting the Top 10.
Birdie or Better %
The winning score at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been -17 or better in 10 straight, including Rory McIlroy’s -21 last season. As a signature event over the last two years, the field has averaged 13.1 and 18.2 birdies or better. Last year, there were a whopping 31 players in the field with 20 or more birdies or better, and three players with 25 or more!
Justin Rose (+2300 w/o Scheffler / +215 Top 10)
Rose is coming off a dominating win at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he led the field with 27 birdies or better. Like Jason Day, he checks a lot of boxes outside of the birdie-making. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 11th in SG: Approach, 3rd in Proximity from 100-150 yards, 7th in SG: Putting on Poa greens, and 5th in SG: Total on the West Coast. He now returns to Pebble Beach, where he won in 2023 and has finished 11th and 3rd over the past two years when the event turned into a signature, no-cut event. I will look for Rose to pick up where he left off in California two weeks ago!
Ryan Gerard (+400 Top 10 / +170 Top 20)
Outside of Scheffler, no golfer is off to a hotter start than Ryan Gerard. Sure, he has no wins to show for it but finished runner-up at both the Sony Open and American Express and then went T11 at the Farmers. He is 5th in Birdie or Better during that stretch with totals of 19, 20, and 27 over those three events. He is 11th in SG: Approach, 5th in SG: Putting, 8th in Good Drive %, and Top 5 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring in 2026. Fire up Gerard in the secondary markets this week.
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