Attacking the Green!: 2026 Houston Open Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

Welcome back, golf fans. Always nice to say we are coming off a win as Matt Fitzpatrick hoisted the trophy at the Valspar Championship last week. This week, the PGA Tour heads to Memorial Park Golf Course for the 2026 Houston Open. It is the first of two events in Texas leading into the Masters and first major championship of the season. The field is led by World #1 Scottie Scheffler and features a total of 23 of the Top 50 in the DataGolf World Rankings.

In this article, we are going to dive into the course, key stats, and some players who stand out as good bets both in the outright and prop markets this week.

The Course: Memorial Park Golf Course

The Houston Open moved its home to Memorial Park in 2021, making this the sixth trip to the course. It is a par 70 that has added some length and is now listed at 7,475 yards. That makes it the third-longest course of the season and the longest par 70 by over 400 yards.

The first four trips around Memorial Park have produced winning scores of -13, -10, -16, and -12. Last year was a bit of an outlier as Min Woo Lee won with a score of -20, and we saw a whopping 26 golfers reach double-digits below par. On average, it has played around a quarter stroke over par during this time, which is mid-pack in terms of difficulty on the PGA tour.

Like last week, we have another unique setup as Memorial Park also has five Par 3 holes to go along with 10 Par 4’s and three Par 5’s. Two of the five Par 3’s are over 200 yards, and six of the 10 Par 4’s are over 450 yards, so we can once again expect a large amount of long-iron approaches. The greens are above average in size at around 7,000 square feet, and do see an average GIR rate around 65%.

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Houston Open Champion

We are going to do things a little differently this week and moving forward. I will go over my three favorite stats for the week and then look at the players who check the most boxes and stand out in the overall model.

Top Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach – Highest correlation to winning among all strokes gained stats over the last five years here at Memorial Park Golf Course. With the distance, I will also be looking at Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards.
• Driving Distance – Added length off the tee is a bonus this week as Memorial Park is the third-longest course this season and the longest Par 70 by over 400 yards.
• Strokes Gained: Putting Overall and Performance on Poa – With larger greens, the GIR rate hovers at or above average annually, which puts importance on putting. I will also look at golfers who have putted well on Poa greens recently

Chris Gotterup (+2450 Outright / +460 Top 5 / +225 Top 10)

Scottie Scheffler is in a tier of his own, and I rarely find myself betting him at those numbers, especially when he is somewhat struggling. Instead, I will head down the board to find some value in other golfers. First up is Gotterup, who has not only won twice already this season, but he also checks a lot of boxes in my stats model. He ranks 3rd in SG: Tee to Green in this field and is also the only golfer in the field to rank Top 10 in both SG: Approach and Driving Distance. After losing a combined two strokes putting at Pebble Beach and the Genesis, the flat stick has started to trend back up as he has now gained strokes, albeit small gains, in two straight events. This is a course he can get rewarded for his skillset, and if the putter gets hot, he could be on track for win #3 in 2026. I also like the secondary markets, and if you want protection from a Scheffler win, Gotterup is +2100 in the “without Scottie” market.

Nicolai Hojgaard (+3300 Outright / +570 Top 5 / +280 Top 10 / +156 Top 20)

Hojgaard missed the cut here last year in his first trip to Memorial Park, but that was a part of a terrible stretch where he missed four straight cuts. The good news coming in this year is that the form has been a whole lot better! He has made all six cuts in 2026, including two Top 10 finishes(WM Phoenix Open, Cognizant Classic), and has only finished outside of 30th once. He also fits the stats model very well, ranking 6th in SG: Approach and 13th in Driving Distance in this field. Better yet, he has been very good on the green, ranking 17th in SG: Putting this season, and is 30th in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds on Poa greens. I loading up on a full ladder bet with Hojgaard this week.

Jake Knapp (+2600 Outright / +465 Top 5 / +230 Top 10)

It has been an incredible start to the season for Knapp, who had five straight finishes of 11th or better before missing his first cut at the Players two weeks back. His success has been in large part due to the elite putting as he sits 2nd behind Jacob Bridgeman in that category. Even in the missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, he gained just over three strokes on the green. He also hits on the distance narrative, ranking 8th in this field in average distance off the tee and while he is just field average in accuracy, he is Top 10 in rough proximity, and 13th in proximity from 200+ yards. He checks a lot of boxes and is a top bet on the card this week.

Stephan Jaeger (+6600 Outright / +980 Top 5 / +450 Top 10 / +240 Top 20)

For Jaeger, there is a little more risk as he has been anything but consistent in 2026. Through seven events, he has two missed cuts but also has two Top 10 finishes. The good news is that he is coming off one of those Top 10’s into an event he has had a lot of success with, a win in 2024, surrounded by 11th and 9th place finishes in 2025 and 2022. While he doesn’t stand out in one specific stat category, he did gain strokes in all SG stats at the Valspar, and he also leads the field in par-3 scoring. If the iron game continues to trend up, he could produce another top finish at the Houston Open in 2026.