Attacking the Green!: 2026 Memorial Tournament Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

Welcome back, golf fans. This week, the PGA Tour heads to the Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament. An elite field will come together for the seventh signature event of the season, where someone will try to stop Scottie Scheffler, who has won each of the last two Memorial Tournaments.

In this article, I will preview the course, look at the top stats in my model, and highlight some top players I will be looking to bet on this week.

The Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club

Muirfield Village is a Par 72 setup, and at 7,569 yards, it is the third-longest non-major course so far this season.  The length starts with the par 3’s as three of the four are over 200 yards this week. There are two short par 4’s under 400 yards, but they are countered with seven par 4’s over 450 yards and four that are over 480 yards. The four par 5’s range from 547 to 588 yards, but a combination of doglegs, thick rough, and water has them play collectively the top 5 hardest par 5’s on tour.

The fairways are fairly generous overall, but the thick Kentucky Bluegrass rough (~4 inches) elevates the importance of hitting the fairway. With the length of the course and dangers surrounding fairways, the best off the tee profile would be a balance of distance and accuracy. The next challenge comes on the approach to some smaller greens (~5,000 sq ft average), which are also surrounded by water and bunkers.

Overall, it’s going to a take a complete game here at Muirfield Village to contend come Sunday.

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Memorial Tournament Champion

Top Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Total Driving – Muirfield is set up somewhat like a major with a ton of length combined with heavy rough, water, and bunkers as defense. This not only makes driving distance important, but also accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Long Iron Proximity – The greens are also surrounded by danger, meaning precision is also needed on approach. With the long par 3’s and par 4’s, there should once again be a higher than normal amount of long iron approaches, so I will also factor in the long iron proximity buckets (175-200 & 200+ yards)
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green – Any time we have a course with a sub 60% GIR rate, a strong around the green game is very important
• Signature Event Form – These events have small fields packed with elite players, so looking at players who perform better in these conditions is key

Scottie Scheffler (+310 Outright)

This is a week where we should definitely be getting some exposure to Scheffler. He has an elite course history, having won the Memorial in each of the last two years while it has played as a signature event, and also finished 3rd in the two previous years. He hasn’t won since January at the AMEX, but is getting close with finishes of 3rd or better in four of his last events. He is also right at the top of the stats model and is one of two players in the field to rank top 20 in both driving distance and accuracy, putting him at #1 in Total Driving, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, 2nd in SG: Around the Green, and 1st in both Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better %. I won’t be betting him solo outright but rather parlaying him with some Top 10 and Top 20 bets.

Ludvig Aberg (+1600 Outright / +290 Top 5)

No winless player in 2026 has come closer than Aberg, and I feel like a broken record saying “It’s coming soon”. It is very hard not to believe it, however, as he is second behind only Scottie Scheffler with five Top 5 finishes, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st since mid-February. He comes in ranked 5th in SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds and in signature events in 2026. He is both long off the tee (7th in driv dist) and accurate (26th in driv acc), is an elite ball striker, terrific around the green, and an above-average putter. He is primed to win a lot on the PGA Tour, and he is my favourite non-Scottie outright on the board.

Matt Fitpatrick (+2000 Outright / +330 Top 5)

Fitz is another player who seemingly checks every box in my model this week, starting with his already monster 2026 season. He won the Valspar Championship, Zurich Championship team event with his brother Alex, and a signature event at the RBC Heritage. Preceding all of those wins was a terrific showing at the Players Championship, where he finished runner-up. Like the players above, he also fits the stats profile with an elite balance of driving distance (27th) and accuracy (5th) combined with excellent long iron play, and he is also Top 10 in both Birdie or Better % and Bogey Avoidance. His course history is a bit up and down, but he does have Top 10 finishes in two of his last three trips to Muirfield Village.

Sam Burns (+4600 Outright / +700 Top 5 / +305 Top 10)

A little bit further down the board, we find Sam Burns, who is a ladder bet candidate for me this week. The first thing that stands out is his course history as he has finished 16th or better three straight trips to Muirfield Village and is 11th in SG: Total here over the last five years. He is an elite putter who also seems to be in the mix when he is consistent with the irons, and the good news is that he has gained strokes on approach in five of his last six events.

Nick Taylor (+520 Top 10 / +200 Top 20)

Taylor is playing his best golf of the season, coming off a 26th at the PGA Championship and 14th and 9th at the last two signature events. He has also made the cut here in five of six trips, including an impressive 4th place finish last year. He is accurate of the tee, and while he is below average in distance (60th), he is 11th and 21st in proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards.

Sample Parlay on DraftKings with Scottie Scheffler