Attacking the Green!: 2026 WM Phoenix Open Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

The west coast swing continues as the next stop on the PGA Tour schedule takes us to the desert for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open. A fan favorite and one of the biggest draws all season, in large part to having the only fully enclosed hole(Par 3 – 16th) on the Tour. The stadium atmosphere draws over 20,000 fans daily, and there is no holding back the boos when players miss a shot.

This year gives us another loaded field headlined by World #1 Scottie Scheffler and four other players ranked inside the Top 10 in DataGolf’s World rankings. We are also finally done with multi-course rotations this season and can concentrate solely on TPC Scottsdale.

The Course: TPC Scottsdale

TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 setup that comes in at 7,261 yards on the scorecard. From a scoring perspective, it sits right around tour average when looking at the regular course rotation. It has pretty standard par-3 setups except for the 16th hole, which is in a league of its own, being a fully enclosed hole surrounded by stadium seating for 20,000 fans. Following that nerve test is a drivable par 4 that is the ultimate risk/reward type hole with water lining the left side of the green. The other 10 par 4 holes are split with five in the 400-450 yard range and five in the 450-500 yard range. Being a Par 71 setup, TPC Scottsdale has just three par 5s, all in the 550-yard range. Scoring on these holes is paramount to climbing up the leaderboard.

The rough is only listed as 2.5″ at TPC Scottsdale, but that is mainly because the bigger defense is the natural desert areas right outside the rough area. This allows golfers to be a little wayward with their drives, but not too much, as unpredictable lies can skyrocket a score real quick. The other big defense on the course is the water, which is present on eight holes.

With the forgiving rough, despite the lower fairways hit %, the course becomes very driver-heavy, which is evident by the average driving distance over 300 yards over the past few years. From an approach standpoint, it is slightly above average in terms of GIR rate, which aids in the low-scoring atmosphere. Looking at the distance buckets, we see an above-average amount of approaches coming in the mid iron ranges of 150-175 and 175-200 yards, and a below-average amount of approaches coming from beyond 200 yards. The greens are larger than average(7,069 sq ft) and are seeded with a combination of Poa Trivialis, creeping Bentgrass, and perennial Ryegrass. The greens are average in speed and produce right around a league average Strokes Gained: Putting.

Let’s now narrow down our statistical profile for our model and look at some players who fit that model and can lead us to betting value this week.

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 WM Phoenix Open Champion

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

The combination of Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Approach carry a lot of weight in my statistical model this week. Off the tee, my focus is on Driving Distance, given the forgiving rough, which has led to a higher average distance. Adding to Strokes Gained: Approach I will also look at guys who have been strong with their mid irons.

Si Woo Kim (+2700 Outright / +215 Top 10)

Outside of Scottie Scheffler, no golfer on Tour has been ball-striking it better than Si Woo Kim. He’s one of just three players gaining over two strokes per event across his last 24 rounds, and the recent results have backed it up. He has finished T11 at the Sony Open, T6 at the AMEX, and T2 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He now returns to TPC Scottsdale, where he had troubles early in his career but turned that around in a big way, finishing 26th or better in four straight, including a career-high 12th back in 2024. I won’t have a ton on the outright with Scottie in the field, but I love betting the secondary markets with Si Woo this week.

Haotong Li (+600 Top 10 / +320 Top 20)

While I won’t be betting him outright in a “Scottie event”, I do like Haotong Li in the secondary markets. He comes in red-hot, finishing T11 at the Farmers last week and T8 at the AMEX the week before.  He also finished the DP World Tour strong with back-to-back Top 10’s at the DP World Tour Championship and Nedbank Golf Challenge. He joins Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler as the only players in the field gaining more than two strokes ball striking over the last 24 rounds.

Birdie or Better %

The winning score has hit -21 or lower in two straight and -19 or lower in four of the last five WM Phoenix Opens. Birdies are very important! Let’s look at some players who do not stand out in Birdie or Better % overall but also at TPC Scottsdale.

Cameron Young(+2500 Outright / +210 Top 10)

Young is one of four golfers in the field to rank Top 10 in both Birdie or Better % overall and at TPC Scottsdale over the last five years. The putter let him down last week as he made just 16 birdies and finished T22, but I like him for a bounce back this week as he is 11th in SG: Putting over the 24 rounds. He also has solid course history here, making the cut in all four trips, including an 8th in 2024 and 12th last season. I will have Young as an outright bet and in the Top 10 market this week.

Rasmus Hojgaard (+6600 Outright / +450 Top 10 / +260 Top 20)

In his first trip to TPC Scottsdale a year ago, Hojgaard was 2nd in the field in birdies with 21 en route to an impressive 12th place finish. I will go back to the well in 2026 as he comes in hot with the putter ranking 2nd in the field in that area, which has helped him to the 8th best Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds. I will sprinkle a bit on the outright, but I am way more interested in the Top 10 and 20 markets this week.

Course History

I have mentioned in the past that I don’t normally have course history that high in my models outside of a few events. The WM Phoenix Open is one of those events, as it ranks Top 5 in course history importance (via DataGolf). When analyzing that data, I feel it, not only has to do with course fit, but also the wild atmosphere of TPC Scottsdale.

Jordan Spieth (+5600 Outright / +385 Top 10 / +200 Top 20)

If course history matters, there is no ignoring Spieth at TPC Scottsdale. He has finished 6th or better in four of his last five trips to the Arizona desert and ranks 4th in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over that stretch. After a disappointing season in 2025, Spieth is looking to get off to a hot start and is coming off a T24 at the Sony Open. I mostly like the secondary markets here, but will also sprinkle some on the outright.

Nick Taylor (+7600 Outright / +460 Top 10 / +260 Top 20)

Taylor went a long stretch where you wouldn’t dream of playing him here. That changed in 2023 with a runner-up finish, and he followed that up with a huge win in 2024 and a third straight Top 25 finish last season. During that stretch, he ranks 1st in SG: Total, 8th in SG: T2G, and he leads this field in Strokes Gained: Putting. He also comes after a solid start to the season with a T13 at the Sony Open anda  T27 at the American Express.