Fantasy Baseball 2026: The Extrapolation Chamber

Every once in a while, I will exclaim, “Extrapolate that!” It is a line from The 40-Year-Old Virgin. I am not going to explain what the character in the movie who said that line was referring to. But for this discussion, let’s pretend he was talking about small sample sizes in fantasy baseball because we are taking a trip to the Extrapolation Chamber!

Below, I will highlight some players who showed out in limited duty last season. Of course, a player who hits 10 home runs in 100 plate appearances is highly unlikely to hit 60 in 600. The same goes for a pitcher who puts up pristine ratios in limited work. Still, some players could be going under the radar in fantasy drafts, especially if they can secure some more playing time in 2026.

2026 Extrapolation Chamber

Hitting Baselines for the Extrapolation Chamber

Last season, only 68 hitters eclipsed 600 plate appearances. That is barely 10 percent of all hitters who made at least one trip to the plate last year. A total of 60 players scored at least 80 runs. 54 players drove in at least 80 runs. That number is one higher than the number (53) who hit at least 25 home runs. Only 37 players stole at least 20 bases. These represent some high-end thresholds, and these are the targets I am aiming for in the Extrapolation Chamber. But 673 players had at least one plate appearance last year. The Extrapolation Chamber has a strict 50-ton weight limit, so some of these players will have to go.

Of these 673 players, 145 of them hit the magic number of 502 plate appearances last year. Therefore, I see no need to extrapolate these players. I am also booting Harrison Bader, who had 501. I also removed the hitters with fewer than 50 plate appearances last year. There are small sample sizes, and then there are nothingburgers. This gives us just under 400 hitters to strap into the Extrapolation Chamber. I really hope this bad boy can handle all this weight, especially from the extra catching equipment that all these backup catchers are lugging aboard.

Beware, because there will be some noise here. For example, if you extrapolate Tyler Tolbert’s numbers from last season across 600 plate appearances, he would score 200 runs and steal 221 bases. I don’t think you need me to tell you that’s not happening in any universe. This is part of the reason I included games played. When you see that Tolbert had 57 plate appearances in 50 games, you can glean that he is little more than a pinch-runner extraordinaire. However, I wanted to highlight players like Zach Cole, Carter Jensen, Sal Stewart, and Moises Ballesteros. Jensen and Stewart, in particular, are very interesting names in the middle rounds of drafts.

Home Runs

Last season, three players hit at least 20 home runs in fewer than 300 plate appearances. That puts this trio on pace for well over 40 bombs across 600 plate appearances. All three players should have regular roles in 2026, yet have an ADP outside the first 15 rounds in 12-team leagues.

Daulton Varsho, OF, ADP 201.37
Colson Montgomery, SS, ADP 217.57
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, ADP 252.46

For reference, Stanton had a higher HR/PA ratio than Cal Raleigh, who had a historic 60-home run season.  Betting on Stanton to play a full season is always a dicey proposition. Perhaps even moreso now that we know he can’t open a jar. However, he could provide a major power boost for fantasy managers who lag in power early in drafts. Nick Kurtz and Junior Caminero both posted lower HR/PA rates than either Varsho or Montgomery. Just make sure if you draft either player, that you can afford the low batting averages and lack of speed.

Runs and RBI

Varsho and Montgomery were two of five players who scored at least 40 runs in fewer than 300 plate appearances. Myles Straw and Eli White are also on this list. Neither figures to be relevant in 2026. However, I will mention that White also crept onto the HR/PA leaderboard and stole 10 bases to boot. White is not a good offensive player, sporting a career 68 wRC+ in just over 700 plate appearances. But he has excellent speed and decent pop. He is a bit of a poor man’s Dylan Moore in that respect. The final player in this group of five is Heriberto Hernandez of the Miami Marlins. I believe Hernandez is an interesting deep-league flyer, especially in Best Ball leagues.

Hernandez is one of five (including the three 20-plus homer players and Will Benson) who had at least 40 RBI in fewer than 300 plate appearances. He may struggle to find regular at-bats early in the season, barring injury. Kyle Stowers had a breakout season, and Jakob Marsee is most likely hitting near the top of the lineup. Miami also has Griffin Conine and Owen Caissie in the outfield/designated hitter mix. But Hernandez should at least play against lefties and showed no major split disadvantage when he faced righties last year. There’s also a chance he gets some reps over at first base. Hernandez had slightly higher hard-hit and barrels/batted ball event rates than Vinnie Pasquantino in 2025. And he has posted a double-digit walk rate at every stop along his professional baseball journey. Hernandez is available after pick 500 in most drafts.

Batting Average

The Extrapolation Chamber is straightforward for average and ratio categories. A .300 batting average in 100 plate appearances would extrapolate to a .300 batting average in 600 plate appearances. The same goes for pitchers. A 3.00 ERA or 1.00 WHIP in 50 innings would extrapolate to the same numbers over 150 innings. Among the 145 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for last year’s batting title, 40 of them had at least a .270 batting average. Here are the players who hit .270 or better last season who had between 50 and 500 plate appearances.

Stolen Bases

I do not want to get too far into the weeds with the stolen base threats. The reason is that stolen bases have historically been the easiest category to find on the waiver wire. Do not put too much stock into the one-trick pony types. You can’t steal first base, and quite a few of these players can leave a mark on your batting average. More importantly, they will cause you to fall behind in the all-important power categories.

For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.

Pitching

While a platoon or bench bat can earn more reps due to various circumstances, the same cannot be said of most relief pitchers. Even the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball are never going to become starting pitchers and get the chance to earn more wins and strikeouts. So, sure, we can say that Mason Miller would strike out 253 hitters in 150 innings, given last year’s pace. But there is no scenario on the planet where Miller approaches even 100 frames, much less 150. Similarly, a middle reliever can work his way into higher leverage situations, potentially increasing his fantasy value via saves. However, his sheer volume would not increase. Therefore, relievers don’t have much relevance in the Extrapolation Chamber. Because of that, I am limiting this to starting pitchers.

Pitching can also be quite ambiguous when it comes to wins, especially in this era of baseball. A hurler who pitches in relief will often be afforded plenty of opportunities to record victories. Adrian Morejon tied for 11th in the Majors with 13 wins last season without making a single start. Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman pitched to a pedestrian 4.37 ERA in 68 innings last year. In addition to finishing fourth in MLB with 33 saves, he added nine wins. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander, MacKenzie Gore, and Tyler Anderson combined for 11 wins in 85 starts despite a respectable 4.18 ERA in 448 innings. A pitcher who is only used as an opener will never get a chance to earn a win. Extrapolating wins feels like a fool’s errand.

The 70 hurlers who threw at least 150 innings last year do not need to board the Chamber. Neither does Zack Wheeler, who threw 149.2 before his 2025 season was cut short in mid-August. I am also banishing those who made only one or two starts last season. This also helps us remove most openers and occasional spot starters. Overall, we have 205 pitchers with at least three starts from whom to extrapolate 150 innings out of. Go ahead, boys, spread out a little. Make yourselves comfortable.

Baselines for Starting Pitchers in the Extrapolation Chamber

Last season, 110 pitchers made a minimum of five starts and registered at least 100 strikeouts. Included in that group are 43 starters who accumulated at least 150 punchouts. Only 38 pitchers in the larger group of 110 averaged at least one strikeout per inning. So our targets for strikeouts are those who threw fewer than 150 innings in a starting role but averaged at least a strikeout per inning. For ratios, 59 of the 110 pitchers in question had an ERA below 4.00. Exactly half of the original group (55) had a WHIP of 1.25 or lower. Here are the subjects aboard the Extrapolation Chamber who reached both thresholds last year in fewer than 150 frames.

Strikeouts

ERA

WHIP

As you can see, several stragglers made it aboard the Extrapolation Chamber. A few relievers who operated as openers snuck on, such as Drew Pomeranz and Brant Hurter. We have recent retirees, including Clayton Kershaw and Charlie Morton. And we even have Fraser Ellard, who fits into both categories.

Despite that, the Extrapolation Chamber provides us with some interesting data to consider on the pitching side. Fantasy managers are clearly buying into what we saw in small sample sizes from the likes of Kyle Bradish and Nolan McLean. Both are being drafted as top-30 starting pitchers for 2026. Other young fireballers like Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski are highly coveted by the fantasy community as well. Postseason hero Trey Yesavage and top prospect Bubba Chandler follow shortly thereafter. A pitcher’s pedigree should be strongly considered when small sample sizes are involved.

There could be some underrated starting pitchers available if the Chamber is to be believed. Emmet Sheehan is one of the most intriguing players on the board in the middle rounds. Sheehan had elite ratios and strikeout rates last season. Pitching for the Dodgers certainly enhances his win potential whenever he is on the hill. However, Los Angeles has no shortage of options available, so Sheehan’s role is far from guaranteed. Edward Cabrera is usually available after the top 50 starters have been drafted in most formats. He is on all three lists above and will pitch for a better team than he did last season. Not to mention, you can type both his first and last name using only your left hand on a keyboard. If that doesn’t bump up his draft price, I don’t know what will.

Having said all that, much like the hitting side, there is also some noise fantasy managers can ignore. I would not suggest going out of your way to draft Martin Perez or Ben Lively, for example. Neither is likely to crack a starting rotation or make a significant impact in 2026. More than a few injured players are on these lists.  Newsflash – Tylor Megill’s numbers from last season are irrelevant for fantasy managers in Redraft leagues following Tommy John Surgery. Make sure you are not overloading your bench with injured pitchers. More often than not, their projected timelines (and thus their immediate fantasy impact) are overly optimistic.

I hope you enjoyed your stay aboard the Extrapolation Chamber, but it’s time to put this cleanup crew to work. Let’s hope that we get to see 600 plate appearances and 150 innings pitched from many of the players on these lists.