Fantasy Baseball Overvalued and Undervalued – Vive La Ty France!

As we pass the All-Star Break and head towards fantasy baseball in August, we are starting to get a clearer sense of who is overvalued and undervalued based on the cost to acquire their services in drafts or auctions this spring. Some performances have exceeded expectations, while others have fallen behind. And time is running out to change their fortunes.

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Value is an ever-changing target, but we do have a snapshot in time to look at how we valued these players in our drafts this spring. With about 100 games played for each team this season, it’s a good time to look at who is performing as we hoped and who is falling behind.

This weekly piece looks at the past few weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players

(Stats are up to date as of July 20)

Jarren Duran (OF – BOS)

Despite the Boston Red Sox 14-game winning streak, Jarren Duran has simply not been able to raise the level of his performance to match the play of the team. Duran has simply been the most disappointing outfielder in MLB for most of 2026. After the 2024-2025 seasons, in which he hit .285/.342/.492 and .256/.332/.442, Duran is hitting .191/.254/.340 with a 30% strikeout rate.

So why exactly is Duran struggling so much? He still has 13 home runs, 14 steals, and 49 RBI, but it comes with a hard-hit rate (38.2%) that is eight percentage points lower than what it was last year. What’s leading to that? It looks like it’s primarily his chase rate.

Last season, Duran had a 31% chase rate on pitches outside the zone. This year, that number has ballooned to over 34.5%, which has led to a low 41% outside-zone contact rate and a first-pitch strike rate of almost 58%. That number simply can’t continue if Duran wants to save his fantasy season. His expected stats say some improvement could be ahead (.224 xBA), but for now, Duran is the most disappointing healthy outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Nasim Nunez (2B – WSH)

There is no doubting that Nasim Nunez is one of the fastest players in baseball. He has a 97th-percentile speed score, according to Statcast. But even the fastest players shouldn’t be getting as many hits as Nunez has over the last 30 days. In that time, Nunez has a .413 BABIP and a .300 average. This is from a player who struggled to stay above .200 in the first two months of the season.

Nunez’s batting average was so high that his slugging rate was .417 in the month of June, despite hitting exactly zero home runs. For comparison, Jordan Walker had a .424 slugging percentage in June, and he has 22 home runs this season.

No matter what, Nunez should remain an elite option for runs and steals (his 37 steals lead MLB). But if you plan to continue to count on Nunez for a batting average with his .413 BABIP and a 30% strikeout rate, you are likely to be disappointed. If your team can absorb the batting average hit that is sure to come, Nunez will pick up the steals. Just not much else.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players

Ty France (1B – SDP)

Ever since Ty France came back from missing three games in early July, he has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet. France has been a top-30 hitter over the last 30 days thanks to a .338/.405/.704 line with seven home runs and 16 RBI. From July 18 to July 21, France had four straight games with at least two hits, plus three homers and seven RBI.

France is on pace for his best year since 2021 with a .279/.337/.550 line overall in 2026 with a strong 22% walk rate. His .305 BABIP shows that he has not been particularly lucky, and his ability to drive the ball with power this year has allowed him to power up. France has increased his hard-hit rate to 49.4% this year, as well as his barrel rate to 11.8% in 2026.

Also helping France this year is the fact that he has reduced his groundballs and increased his flyballs. At age 31, France seems to have found the right team and is being deployed the right way to take advantage of his right-handed power at Petco Park.

Geraldo Perdomo (SS – ARI)

Geraldo Perdomo is one of the strongest positive-regression candidates for the last two months of the 2026 season because his elite plate discipline has remained intact while his results on balls in play have been unusually poor.

After a breakout 2025, Perdomo has continued to be one of baseball’s most patient hitters, carrying a 14.5% walk rate, well above the league average and nearly identical to the approach that made him so productive before. His 11.8% strikeout rate is also among the best in the league, giving him an outstanding walk-to-strikeout ratio. Hitters who consistently control the strike zone this well tend to have stable offensive numbers over time, making it unlikely that his current batting average (.341) accurately reflects his talent.

The biggest culprit behind Perdomo’s disappointing batting average has been an abnormally low .259 BABIP. For a player with back-to-back seasons hitting over .270, excellent contact skills, and above-average speed, a BABIP that low is difficult to sustain over a full season. That .259 number is one of the 20 lowest in the entire league. More of the ground balls and line drives he’s putting in play should begin falling for hits during the second half, and he will then have a stronger average to go along with his 48 runs and 16 steals.