Fantasy Baseball Overvalued and Undervalued – Week 4

It’s tough to call any fantasy baseball players overvalued or undervalued a little less than one month into a new season. No team has played more than 30 games, and sample sizes are tiny compared to what we normally need to make long-term judgments on players.

However, based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.

This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players

(Stats are up to date as of April 21)

Otto Lopez (2B/SS – MIA)

A hitless day in five plate appearances on Tuesday stopped a hit streak that dated back to April 11 for Otto Lopez. Before Tuesday, he was slashing .337/.391/.554 through 22 contests with 10 extra-base hits, three home runs, four steals, 11 RBI, and 18 runs while hitting between third and fifth every single game.

After 15 steals and 15 home runs in 143 games in 2025, many fantasy managers were interested in what Lopez would do for an encore in his age-27 season. So far, he has not disappointed, with a .391 OBP and .554 SLG to go along with his high average. His barrel rate and hard-hit rate have seen huge spikes this year, thanks to a small uptick in his bat speed. Lopez may be on his way to having a middle-infield season that could see him finish with more than 20 home runs and 20 steals.

Josh Naylor (1B – SEA)

Very few hitters have been more unlucky than Josh Naylor over the first four weeks. His batting average on balls in play is a very low .191 (league average is around .290), which has led to a .174 batting average. The reason this is certain to turn around is that Naylor is one of the most disciplined hitters in the league. Even during this four-week slump, he is striking out only 16% of the time, and he has an 8.5% walk rate.

What this means is that most of Naylor’s plate appearances have resulted in a ball in play or a walk. He just can’t seem to find the holes on the field to get his hits down. Somehow, he still has two home runs and eight RBI in this span of time, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that this is one of the coldest streaks a player has seen in 2026. Do not fear if you roster Naylor. It will assuredly turn around again soon. He may not get another 20/30 season like in 2025 (he only has one steal and doesn’t appear to have a green light all the time), but this is something that has to turn around.

Michael Wacha (SP – KCR)

If you drafted Michael Wacha near the later part of your fantasy baseball draft this spring, congratulations, you have yourself an ace so far. Wacha has a 1.00 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, 23 strikeouts in 27 innings, and two wins (on a bad team). He is four-for-four in quality starts and will go for his fifth on Wednesday afternoon.

Wacha is 34 years old with a career 3.84 ERA, so it’s unlikely he has found the secret to the fountain of youth this year, but his expected ERA is just 3.44, and his barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed are right in line with his career norms. His strikeouts are up, his home runs allowed are down, and the increased usage of his cutter and sinker this year could be the skeleton key to unlock a career year.

Fantasy Baseball’s MostOvervalued Players

Wyatt Langford (OF – TEX)

Wyatt Langford left Tuesday’s game against Pittsburgh with forearm tightness, and it remains to be seen if he will miss any significant amount of time going forward. But his fantasy managers might be grateful for the chance to put him on their benches for a few days, considering one of the most hyped players of the offseason was off to a start with a .241 average, one home run, and just four RBI.

And those numbers are a bit inflated by the last week when Langford went 10-for-24 with two steals and five runs. He has no home runs in that span, however, and has a power disappointment to start the year. Langford was atop many breakout lists before the year started, but he has just a 3% walk rate and an expected slugging percentage (.360) slightly lower than his actual number (.367).

Andy Pages (OF – LAD)

The start to Andy Pages’ 2026 season has been nothing short of spectacular. He is hitting .370/.417/.605 with five homers and 21 RBI coming into Tuesday (tied for the MLB lead). And while it’s easy to say “No one hits .370 anymore” and predict some regression is coming, there are plenty of other signs that show Pages is a good hitter, but certainly not Babe Ruth, which is what he has looked like for four weeks.

Pages’ BABIP is presently .455, the second-highest mark among qualified hitters in all of baseball. He has a 25% strikeout rate, but only a 6.7% walk rate. His xwOBA (.375) is a full 70 points below his actual wOBA (.446). This is one of the most obvious signs of good fortune that a batter has had in 2026. Being a part of a potent lineup with strong plate skills will certainly help Pages this year, but if you can sell high on this performance, I would definitely flip him for a top-30 player.

Logan Webb (SP – SFG)

Logan Webb is off to a pretty terrible start to the 2026 season, posting a 5.40 ERA through his first five starts, which is one of the worst marks among National League starters. While he still maintains an elite 58.9% groundball rate, his command has been awful this season, and has led to erratic starts.

For example, his sinker location has been off, and his changeup lacks its usual movement, leading to harder contact from opposing hitters. His strikeout rate is way down, while his walk rate is way up. He still isn’t allowing home runs (just .60 per nine innings), but with the sinker and changeup not fooling hitters like they usually do, there have been four out of five starts for Webb with an ERA over 4.50.