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Mid-Season MLB Prospect Risers and Fallers (2025)

Fantasy BaseballDynasty Fantasy BaseballMLB Prospects
Wes Hughes
Author: Wes Hughes
17 min.read
Colson Montgomery Dynasty Baseball Shortstop targets

We’re at the midway point of the 2025 season, where performance starts to outweigh pedigree. A number of prospects have skyrocketed up rankings with eye-popping stats and improved skills, while others have seen their shine fade due to injuries or on-field struggles.

Below we break down seven fast-rising prospects and seven whose stock has slipped, including their current level, age, estimated time of arrival (ETA), and how far their prospect rank has moved. Each player’s 2025 production and trends provide insight into why their value is rising or falling. This list was curated with the intention of highlighting the most notable prospect risers and fallers based on performance, context, and long-term trajectory. While other players may have seen larger movements in the rankings, these are the ones I believe are most worth paying attention to in the Mid-Season Prospect Risers and Fallers.

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Prospect Risers & Fallers

Stock Rising

Gage Jump | LHP | Athletics | Double-A | Age 22 | ↑ 291

A year ago, Gage Jump wasn’t even in Oakland’s system. Now, he might be their top pitching prospect. The A’s grabbed him in the 2024 second round after he didn’t sign with the Dodgers out of high school. Since then, he’s flown through the upper minors.

Jump opened 2025 in High-A with a 2.32 ERA and a 45/5 K/BB over 31 innings. That earned him a May call-up to Double-A, where he’s looked even better. In his first two starts at Midland, he threw 12 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts and only 3 walks. Over 7 outings, he’s run his fastball into the mid-90s and stayed in the zone consistently. Between both levels, he has a 2.20 ERA with 59 strikeouts and just 11 walks in 41 innings.

He’s allowed just one home run all year. The former LSU lefty has a mature mix for a 22-year-old. His riding fastball and plus curveball give hitters problems, and he mixes in a solid changeup. Oakland has been aggressive with his development, and it’s paying off. MLB Pipeline just named him the A’s No. 1 prospect. Some think he could reach the majors by early 2026, maybe even sooner. After a college career limited by injury, Jump is answering every question with dominant results.

Luis Peña | SS/3B | Brewers | Low-A | Age 18 | ↑ 291

Milwaukee’s latest international breakout is 18-year-old Luis Peña, and his stateside debut has been electric. In 25 games for Single-A Carolina, Peña hit .327/.400/.505 with 3 home runs and 21 steals. That includes 15 extra-base hits and a near-even 15:14 BB:K ratio across 115 plate appearances.

His plate discipline is rare for someone this young. He consistently barrels the ball and uses his plus speed to put pressure on defenses. At one point, he was 15-for-15 in stolen base attempts.

Brewers officials are raving about his maturity and polish. National outlets have taken notice as well. Baseball America jumped Peña from No. 76 to No. 31 in their June Top 100 update. A Brewers-focused list also moved him into the organization’s top 10 after starting outside the top 60.

Because of his age and skillset, some have compared him to a young Jackson Chourio. That’s a lofty comp, but not completely off base. Peña did miss time recently with a concussion, but he’s still only 18. The bat-to-ball skills, speed, and athleticism are all legit. If he keeps this up, Peña could become one of the biggest prospect risers of 2025.

Nolan McLean | RHP | Mets | Triple-A | Age 23 | ↑ 218

One year ago, Nolan McLean’s future was a question mark after draft drama and serious concerns about his control. Fast forward to now, he’s the Mets’ No. 4 prospect and inching closer to the majors.

A former two-way player, McLean committed to pitching and dominated Double-A to start 2025. He posted a 1.37 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and allowed zero home runs across five starts. That earned him a quick promotion to Triple-A Syracuse in early May. He’s continued to shine, including a 10-strikeout outing over five innings on July 3.

Across 15 starts at both levels, McLean owns a 2.33 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 81 innings. His fastball touches the upper 90s, and the hard slider has held up against better hitters. Opponents are batting just .218 against him with only 0.6 home runs per nine. Most encouraging is the walk rate, now around 3.9 BB/9 in Triple-A after nearly 6 BB/9 in college.

McLean has gone from “maybe a bullpen guy” to a legit starting pitching prospect. The Mets even had him throw in front of the big league staff recently. A late-season debut is absolutely on the table. Not bad for someone who wasn’t even on top-10 team lists a year ago.

George Lombard Jr. | SS | Yankees | Double-A | Age 20 | ↑ 130

George Lombard Jr. has skyrocketed up prospect lists and now ranks as a consensus top-30 overall prospect. The tools, athleticism, and bloodlines are all there, but 2025 has shown the bumps that come with aggressive promotions.

The 20-year-old shortstop, a 2023 first-rounder, started in High-A and tore it up immediately. In 24 games, he hit .329/.495/.488 with a ridiculous 19:23 BB:K ratio. That earned him a quick call to Double-A Somerset, where he’s one of the youngest everyday players in the league.

The adjustment hasn’t been smooth; he’s hitting .203 with a .638 OPS and 2 home runs in 51 games. His strikeout rate is up to around 27%, and the power hasn’t quite shown up. Still, there are positives. Lombard has a strong 15% walk rate and a .330 OBP in Double-A. He’s also swiped 14 bases and played solid defense all over the infield.

Scouts still love the swing, athleticism, and overall approach at the plate. His full-season line, .242/.386/.364 with 68 runs in 75 games, is a better reflection of the upside. He’s still just 20, and the Double-A struggles haven’t shaken long-term confidence. If he adjusts in the second half, Lombard could cement himself as a future Yankees cornerstone.

Gabriel Gonzalez | OF | Twins | Double-A | Age 21 | ↑ 129

After a quiet first season with Minnesota, Gabriel Gonzalez is reminding everyone why he was once a top-100 prospect. The former Mariners No. 3 prospect came over in an offseason trade and struggled in 2024 (.255/.326/.381). Back in High-A to open 2025, the 21-year-old mashed with a .319/.378/.529 slash line in 34 games. He racked up 18 extra-base hits and 5 home runs before a June promotion to Double-A Wichita.

Surprisingly, he’s hit even better there, batting .353 with a .437 OBP in his first 35 games. The power hasn’t followed yet (0 home runs at AA), but the plate skills have. Across both levels, Gonzalez owns a .336/.408/.504 line with 5 homers, 34 RBIs, and 6 steals in 69 games.

He was named Twins Minor League Player of the Month for May after hitting .364. Even more encouraging, he’s dropped his strikeout rate to around 15% while walking at a 10% clip. That’s a huge step forward in approach and contact consistency. Gonzalez fell off national rankings after the trade and adjustment year, but 2025 has changed the narrative. Twins officials love his bat-to-ball skills and advanced all-fields approach. If this plate discipline sticks, Gonzalez could reach Triple-A and reclaim top-100 status before season’s end.

Mike Sirota | OF | Dodgers | High-A | Age 22 | ↑ 119

Mike Sirota’s first pro season has been electric. The 6’2″ righty was a 2024 third-round pick, acquired in a winter trade. He’s absolutely torching Single-A pitching so far in 2025. Across Low-A and High-A, Sirota is hitting .333/.450/.624 with 13 homers and a 1.074 OPS in 57 games. Through late May, he led all of MiLB in slugging (.745) and OPS (1.214).

He pairs plus bat speed with great pitch recognition, walking at a 15% clip during his breakout. He opened the year in Low-A, batting .354 with 7 home runs in just 24 games. After his High-A promotion, he somehow got even hotter. At one point, he hit .550 with a .950 SLG in his first week there.

Scouts love the offensive tools and see legit 20/20 potential in his profile. He’s also shown he can hold his own in center field. Once outside the top-30 lists, he now ranks No. 19 in the Dodgers system per MLB Pipeline. That number could keep rising fast if the production continues. A Double-A promotion and top-100 recognition are well within reach.

Eduardo Quintero | OF | Dodgers | High-A | Age 19 | ­↑ 41

Eduardo Quintero wasn’t a household name coming into 2025, but he’s forced his way onto the national radar.

The 19-year-old outfielder opened the year by dominating Low-A and earning California League Player of the Month in May. He hit .391/.477/.718 with a 214 wRC+ before getting promoted to High-A. Through 66 total games, he’s slashing .318/.428/.567 with 13 homers and 33 stolen bases.

Quintero walks nearly as much as he strikes out (50 BB, 75 K in 321 plate appearances). That’s rare for someone this young and this fast. He also hits the ball with real authority. In May alone, he led all minor leaguers with 43 hits and racked up 79 total bases. That explosion pushed him into Baseball America’s Top 100. He jumped from No. 76 to No. 31 in their latest update.

Once unranked in the Dodgers’ system, he’s now their No. 5 overall prospect. The tools are loud, plus speed, a polished bat, and surprising pop for his profile. Quintero looks like a legitimate five-category contributor and an emerging star in a stacked system.

 

Stock Falling

Alejandro Rosario | RHP | Rangers | Double-A | Age 23 | ­↓ 130

Few pitchers had their momentum cut short as abruptly as Alejandro Rosario. The hard-throwing righty was a breakout star in 2024. He went 8–3 with a 2.24 ERA and a 129:13 K:BB across 18 starts at Low-A and High-A. That earned him MLB Pipeline’s No. 50 overall spot and made him Texas’s No. 3 prospect entering 2025.

Unfortunately, his elbow had other plans. Rosario felt discomfort during spring training, and the Rangers soon announced he likely needed Tommy John surgery. It was later confirmed, he underwent UCL reconstruction and will miss all of 2025.

That’s a major blow for someone who was set to open in Double-A Frisco. He had a real shot at reaching Triple-A this year. Now, he’s expected to rehab for 12+ months and might not return until mid-2026. It’s a temporary but significant setback for the 23-year-old’s prospect stock.

Rosario was Texas’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year with a 9.92 K/BB ratio last season. His name will likely fall off top-100 lists until he returns to form. He still has plenty of upside, an upper-90s fastball, and three solid secondaries. But his rise has been paused, and his future now carries more uncertainty than it did a year ago.

Mason Black | RHP | Giants | Triple-A | Age 25 ­| ↓ 91

A year ago, Mason Black was knocking on San Francisco’s door. But inconsistency at Triple-A has cooled the hype.

The 24-year-old debuted in late 2024, posting a 6.44 ERA in five MLB appearances. He returned to Triple-A Sacramento in 2025 to refine his command. So far, results have been mixed. In 15 games (14 starts), Black is 1–5 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 72 innings. His 8.8 K/9 is decent but down from his Double-A numbers.

Meanwhile, his walk rate has crept to around 4.0 BB/9. Reports also note his fastball now sits 92–94 mph with inconsistent command. He’s flashed brilliance, carried a sub-2.00 ERA in early 2024, but the clunkers still happen. Walks and home runs have been an issue when he misses spots. The Giants even used him in long relief during a bullpen crunch. That shift suggests he’s no longer viewed as a rotation lock.

He still features the mid-90s sinker and slider combo that made him a 2021 third-round pick. But at age 24, the window to secure a starter role is closing. Black is now back up with the Giants in a relief role. He still has MLB ability, just with a lower ceiling than expected. Once a top-5 prospect in the system, he’s probably slipped to the back half of the top 10. A strong finish, or success in relief, could help him regain some of his lost momentum.

Matt Wilkinson | LHP | Guardians | High-A | Age 22 | ­↓ 86

Matt Wilkinson was a fun breakout story last year, an undersized, 10th-rounder nicknamed “Tugboat” who dominated Low-A hitters. But 2025 has brought some growing pains. The 6’1”, 250-pound lefty jumped to High-A Lake County and started the year strong.

In April, he even flirted with multiple no-hitters. Over time, though, hitters adjusted, and his numbers regressed. Through 15 starts, Wilkinson is 2–8 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 60 innings. He’s still missing bats, tallying 68 strikeouts with a plus-grade curveball. But his walk rate (around 4.5 BB/9) and contact management remain concerns.

Opponents are batting .260 against him, a major jump from the sub-.200 average he allowed in Low-A. One issue is velocity. His fastball sits mid-80s to low-90s and fades once hitters see it multiple times. Still, Cleveland values Wilkinson’s competitiveness and overall feel for pitching. He throws strikes but will need better fastball command and maybe a little more velo or deception. After posting a 2.30 ERA at this level late last year, expectations may have been a bit high. He remains an interesting lefty, just one who needs to make adjustments. For now, Wilkinson has likely slipped outside the Guardians’ top 15 prospects.

José Perdomo | SS | Braves | Rookie (CPX) | Age 18 | ­↓ 67

Atlanta dropped $5 million to sign José Perdomo in January 2024, hyping him as a polished, high-ceiling teenage shortstop. A year and a half later, Braves fans are still waiting for the engine to rev.

His 2024 debut was derailed by injury, just 20 total at-bats before hitting the 60-day IL. Now healthy, the 18-year-old is finally making his stateside debut in the Florida Complex League. As expected, there’s some rust. In 39 rookie-ball games, Perdomo is hitting just .204 with one homer and a .518 OPS. He’s drawn a few walks but has just 32 hits in 157 at-bats.

The lack of impact contact stands out, especially for a supposed advanced hitter. Scouts say don’t panic, it’s basically his DSL season, just on U.S. soil. He’s still one of the youngest players in the league with loud tools. He’s flashed plus speed and made a few highlight defensive plays at shortstop.

The Braves remain high on him long-term, viewing him as a hit-over-power middle infielder. Still, the lost development year followed by a rough rookie-ball stretch has slowed his stock. Once a top-100 candidate, Perdomo now needs to prove it at Low-A. There’s still time for the talented Venezuelan to adjust and rise, but expectations are on pause.

Colson Montgomery | SS | White Sox | Triple-A | Age 23 | ↓ 65

Colson Montgomery entered 2025 as Chicago’s top position prospect and a possible Opening Day starter. But the season hasn’t gone as planned.

After missing time in the spring with a back issue, he opened at Triple-A Charlotte for more seasoning. What followed was the first real slump of his career. In April, Montgomery hit just .167 with three homers and slugged under .300 in 23 games. His normally steady plate discipline slipped, and he looked overmatched at the plate. That was jarring from a former first-rounder who hit .287 across three levels last year.

Concerned that something was off, the White Sox paused his season in May. They sent him to Arizona for a two-week mechanical and mental reset. That decision worked. Since returning, Montgomery has slashed .270/.353/.574 with eight homers and 24 RBIs in his next 32 games.

Despite the uneven overall line (.214/.329/.381 in 55 games), Chicago promoted him to the big leagues on July 4. His prospect stock has taken a hit; he was once a consensus top-50 guy. Some outlets have dropped him, but there’s a silver lining in his bounce-back. He’s still a 6’4” left-handed hitter with plus power and now some adversity under his belt. The White Sox are giving him a real MLB look, showing they still believe. If he adjusts to big-league arms, his value could stabilize. Until then, think of his ranking as a hold, not a fall.

Spencer Jones | OF | Yankees | Triple-A | Age 24 | ­↓ 58

The Yankees’ 2022 first-rounder remains one of the more fascinating power-speed athletes in the minors. But 2025 has been a mixed bag.

Spencer Jones started the year at Double-A Somerset and showed both his upside and his biggest flaw. In 49 games, he launched 16 homers and stole 10 bases, impressive for a 6’7″ left-handed hitter. At times, he looked like a young Aaron Judge in the box. But the strikeouts were an issue. He punched out in 33.7% of his plate appearances, often chasing breakers out of the zone. Even so, a hot stretch and 15.4% walk rate helped him slash .268/.370/.552 at AA.

That earned him a promotion to Triple-A in late June. He’s started strong there, with a .300 average and .900+ OPS in his first 10 games. He’s even flashed highlight power with towering shots to center.

So why the concern? The swing-and-miss hasn’t gone away, and progress feels more steady than star-making. At 24, he’s older than many top prospects and was expected to crush upper-level arms. Instead, scouts see a three-true-outcomes profile.

He led the Yankees system in strikeouts last year, and this year’s AA rate was even higher. His long frame produces elite exit velos but also creates a big strike zone. He hasn’t yet proven he can make enough contact to let the power shine consistently. Jones has dropped from top-50 prospect range to the back half of top-100 lists. He could still slug his way to the Bronx soon, maybe even this year. But until he cuts down the whiffs, his projection comes with risk. The next few weeks at Triple-A will be telling.

Xavier Isaac | 1B | Rays | Double-A | Age 21 | ­↓ 47

The Rays surprised many by drafting Xavier Isaac in the first round in 2022. Early returns looked great. Last year, the hulking lefty hit .285 with a 154 wRC+ in A-ball and showed huge power. But 2025 has been a tougher test.

The jump to Double-A Montgomery has exposed some holes in his hit tool. In 38 games, he’s batting just .201 with nine homers and 22 RBIs. His .812 OPS is boosted by a strong .366 OBP and 20% walk rate. But his contact rate has dipped, and the average has crashed.

His strikeout rate in Double-A is around 33%, matching his mark across High-A and AA in 2024. Advanced arms are beating him with off-speed stuff, and he’s chasing too often. Still, when Isaac connects, it’s usually loud. He’s slugging over .550 and hitting a homer every 15 at-bats. The 40-homer upside remains intact, and he’s still only 21 years old. That makes him one of the youngest regulars at Double-A.

The Rays are helping him adjust by working on a two-strike approach and using the whole field. His AA contact rate is up about 8% from last year’s stint. That’s a step in the right direction, but the struggles have cooled his stock.

Isaac entered the year as a consensus top-3 Rays prospect and appeared on top-100 lists. Some outlets have slid him down or off altogether. It’s a reminder that even premium power hitters can struggle with higher-level pitching. If he adjusts in the second half, he’ll rebound fast. But for now, Isaac’s prospect momentum has slowed a bit.

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