Dave Funnell continues his series looking at the injury history and risk position by position. This week, he once again digs into the injury concerns at the outfield position. For more injury analysis make sure to follow Dave on Twitter @sportz_nutt51.
When assessing the future stats of a player, it’s imperative to consider player health and injury risk when speculating on playing time. After all, getting onto the field and being given a chance to succeed only happens if the player is healthy enough. That’s why looking at a player’s track record of health gives credence to whether someone is worth drafting. A fantasy team could have all the talent in the world, but if they’re on your Injured List or bench, they lose a ton of value.
We are moving into the heart of draft season, and all eyes will be on the top players at each position. Knowing of any inherent risk to drafting someone can help teams in the long run. That’s why going through the examinations of injury risk is important for roster construction. The following will be the Injury History of the top players at every position with special notes on their healthy or troubled pasts. Seeing trends in their health could help determine any future problems.
The players listed below will be separated into one of three categories: red light, yellow light, green light. The timeframe that will be examined will primarily be from 2021 to 2023, though looking into the distant past might also take place.
Red Light: any players listed here have an extensive and/or concerning injury history that seems likely to come into play in the future. The potential for injury outweighs their production on the field and their selection could lead to roster problems down the line. The reoccurrence of a particular injury or multiple injuries also creates the need for a red light. Fantasy owners should be wary of drafting these players because the risk of injury is high.
Yellow Light: any players listed here have had their injury problems before, but they’re not necessarily prone to injury. These players here have situations to monitor, especially during the off-season and Spring Training, but it’s not necessarily as bleak as it could be. The types of injuries could also be freakish or due to bad luck with events leading to it being out of the ordinary. Fantasy owners should be aware of the injury history, but know the possibility for health is there too.
Green Light: any players listed here have had minimal problems and their future doesn’t appear to be in any jeopardy. There is nothing from their past that would indicate an injury-prone future. While injuries could happen at any time, there are no red flags in this player’s history to suggest it will lead to another one. Fantasy owners can feel safe in drafting these players.
Things to remember:
- The players listed are in the general order from which they are being drafted.
- The level of confidence has to do with their health and nothing to do with their abilities on the field.
- A player’s injured past is not a direct indication that they will get injured in the future.
- Pitchers tend to be more prone to getting injured as opposed to hitters, especially with long-term injuries.
- The minimum time away on the Injured List is ten days for hitters and fifteen days for pitchers.
Outfield Injury Risk or 2025
1. Aaron Judge – New York Yankees
2024 – 158 games played, 559 at-bats, 704 plate appearances
Aaron Judge has done well to overcome the injury-prone label that he carried early on in his career. Since the start of 2021, he has missed time due to a physical injury within just one of those seasons. Besides the 2023 season where he fractured his big toe while running into a wall, he has missed just 21 games over three years, becoming quite a reliable force in the Yankees’ lineup. He remains at the top of people’s draft boards and is worth the pick. Draft with confidence.
2. Juan Soto – New York Mets
2024 – 157 games played, 576 at-bats, 713 plate appearances
Juan Soto has not only remained relatively healthy throughout the years but is also someone who can play through an injury if needed. His last trip to the Injured List took place in 2021, and since then, he has played in at least 153 games per season. It is worth noting that he did play through some inflammation in his left forearm, which some believed could have led to offseason surgery and significant time missed. While that hasn’t yet come to fruition, it could resurface this upcoming season. That said, there are no worries at this time and he remains a worthy first-round pick. Draft with confidence.
3. Kyle Tucker – Chicago Cubs
2024 – 78 games played, 277 at-bats, 339 plate appearances
Kyle Tucker has been a reliable source of playing time throughout his career. His injury last season was fluky, as he fouled a ball off of his shin. The unfortunate nature of that ailment was its misdiagnosis by the team, as it turned out that he fractured it. At the end of the day, however, there is not much one can do when these sorts of things happen, and thus, his status of being a safe pick remains. Draft with confidence.
4. Corbin Carroll – Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 – 158 games played, 589 at-bats, 684 plate appearances
It’s hard to believe that Corbin Carroll has yet to be placed on the Injured List in his Major League career, despite almost separating his shoulder in 2023. Since his return from that injury, his performance has had its ups and downs on the field, but one thing remained true – he continued to play. There were rumors that his shoulder was the reason for a long-standing slump, but he has since overcome those problems at the plate and remains a first-round pick. Whether or not that is warranted remains to be seen. It is worth noting too that he had shoulder surgery in 2021 on the same shoulder he injured two years later. Is this a recurring theme for him? Time will tell. Draft with attention.
5. Fernandno Tatis Jr. – San Diego Padres
2024 – 102 games played, 398 at-bats, 438 plate appearances
Fernando Tatis Jr. has had his fair share of injuries over the years, most of which were significant in nature and time lost. Over his career, he has been placed on the 10-day Injured List six times with three of those instances extending into the 60-day Injured List. The nature of those injuries too has been worrisome, with two stress reactions on different body parts being the main culprits. It just feels like there’s always something wrong with Tatis, despite having some of the biggest levels of talent in all of baseball. He says that he is healthy now, but stress reactions don’t always go away unless the stressor is removed. He will be playing baseball again this year, therefore the stressor will more than likely return. This isn’t to say that there is a 100% chance that he will reinjure himself, but rather a note to keep in your back pocket for if and when his leg or back starts to hurt again and you’re deciding how to handle an injury without knowing its length in time. Draft with attention.
6. Mookie Betts – Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Julio Rodriguez – Seattle Mariners
2024 – 143 games played, 567 at-bats, 613 plate appearances
Julio Rodriguez has had an odd career. While his numbers on the field have disappointed some, he remains one of the most exciting players in baseball at age 24. His injury history has three marks on it, with his latest one, a high-ankle sprain in 2024, being the one that hurts fantasy baseball managers the most. He seemingly rushed back from a left foot injury right before the ankle sprain, and his extended absence away from the team has caused his draft stock to plummet a bit. Over his three years in Seattle, he has shown the ability to have short outbursts of offense that can single-handedly win you your week. That didn’t happen in 2024, as it felt like he injured himself right when it was about to happen. Perhaps that’s good news for anyone wanting to be in the Julio Rodriguez business, as this might be the time to buy low. He’s a five-category stud, and nothing in his Injury History suggests that he will miss time in 2025. Just be prepared for a slow start, as his April numbers are typically poor. Draft with confidence.
8. Yordan Alvarez – Houston Astros
2024 – 147 games played, 552 at-bats, 635 plate appearances
Last season was the healthiest Yordan Alvarez had been in years, logging in a career-high 147 games. While it was refreshing to see him remain on the field for more than he ever has, his season wasn’t without concerns. He suffered an injury to his right knee near the end of the year, causing worry that it would need surgery to repair it. The good news is that he was able to return for the playoffs without an operation, but it also continued on a worrisome trend. Since his surgery in 2020, he has missed bursts of time due to ailments all over his body. The good news is that most of them didn’t require time on the Injured List, but the fact remains that he has and likely will miss time with some sort of physical problem this year. That is probably the biggest reason why he isn’t a first-round pick. His rating here is based on his injury history and the fact that there is some risk, though that shouldn’t prevent him from being drafted. Draft with attention.
9. Jackson Chourio – Milwaukee Brewers
2024 – 148 games played, 528 at-bats, 573 plate appearances
Jackson Chourio has had a relatively healthy career, both in the Major and Minor Leagues. He is set to receive everyday at-bats with the Brewers and is their cornerstone franchise player. Draft with confidence.
10. Jarren Duran – Boston Red Sox
2024 – 160 games played, 671 at-bats, 735 plate appearances
Jarren Duran broke out in a big way last season, leading the league in at-bats and plate appearances. He worked hard in 2023 after suffering a toe injury that cost him the final six weeks of the season to get into better, stronger shape and to be one that exudes confidence and endurance. The result was seeing him evolve into a player who has catapulted others in ADP and become a highly drafted player. He remains someone worth rostering without much fear of injury despite the fact that he’s quick and runs as much as he does. Draft with confidence.
11. Jazz Chisholm Jr. – New York Yankees
12. Ronald Acuna Jr. – Atlanta Braves
2024 – 49 games played, 192 at-bats, 222 plate appearances
Ronald Acuna Jr. has had an extensive injury history that cannot be ignored. Last season, he suffered his second ACL tear, and now has torn both knees before entering his age-27 season. His timeline for a full recovery leads into the 2025 season, making him a tough player to assess in the draft season. On the one hand, is fully expected to return at some point in the spring, bringing hope to those that he can return to his old, dominant form. On the other hand, he and the team have publicly stated that he will be taking things slowly because his return from his first injury felt rushed. That quick return felt evident when looking at his numbers, as that was his worst season to date on and off the field. Something else to consider, too. Throughout his career, there have been many “DTD” ailments that caused him to miss smaller samples of games here and there. He is someone who seemingly requires time off for physical inconveniences, making him a frustrated person to roster in weekly leagues. Draft with caution.
13. Jackson Merrill – San Diego Padres
2024 – 156 games played, 554 at-bats, 592 plate appearances
Jackson Merrill has had a pretty clean injury history throughout his Major and Minor League career. Other than a wrist injury in 2022, he hasn’t missed much time at all. Draft with confidence.
14. Michael Harris II – Atlanta Braves
2024 – 110 games played, 440 at-bats, 470 plate appearances
For years, we have been waiting for Michael Harris II to take that next step forward in his development. Unfortunately, it’s been injuries that have stood in his way, preventing him from becoming one of the league’s best. In 2023, he suffered a lower back injury that kept him out of action to start the season. Last year, his left hamstring was the culprit, giving him the lowest season total for games played in his career. And yet, he is still drafted to be someone who fantasy baseball owners believe can and will take that next step forward. That’s a tall task for someone who very well could be a five-category stud but may not have the body to let that happen. Draft with attention.
15. Oneil Cruz – Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 – 146 games played, 541 at-bats, 599 plate appearances
Oneil Cruz finally had himself a healthy season, playing more games in 2024 than he had throughout the rest of his career. Entering his age-26 season, he looks primed and ready for a breakout next season based on his second-half output. For anyone worried about the age, one must remember that he missed almost the entire 2022 season with an ankle injury that took away any potential progression. Draft with confidence.
16. Wyatt Langford – Texas Rangers
2024 – 134 games played, 499 at-bats, 557 plate appearances
Wyatt Langford has had a relatively healthy Major and Minor League career outside of a hamstring injury that sidelined him last year. He looks to be a safe bet for everyday at-bats in Texas for 2025. Draft with confidence.
17. James Wood – Washington Nationals
2024 – 79 games played, 295 at-bats, 336 plate appearances
James Wood has had a reasonably quiet Injury History, though he did deal with a nagging wrist injury while within the Padres organization. It wasn’t much to worry about, mind you, as he had some soreness that was triggered by a hit-by-pitch that took place after it had healed. As a member of the Nationals, he was an everyday player in 2024 and should remain so this upcoming season. Draft with confidence.
18. Teoscar Hernandez – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 – 154 games played, 589 at-bats, 652 plate appearances
Teoscar Hernandez has been on the Injured List four times over nine seasons, with three of them being for physical ailments. His biggest injury to date may have been a left oblique injury that cost him three months back in 2022. Otherwise, there is nothing in his profile that suggests that he is someone to worry about healthwise. Draft with confidence.
19. Lawrence Butler – The Athletics
2024 – 125 games played, 412 at-bats, 451 plate appearances
Lawrence Butler has had a healthy career at all levels of the game. Draft with confidence.
20. Brenton Doyle – Colorado Rockies
2024 – 149 games played, 542 at-bats, 603 plate appearances
Despite playing in 149 games last season, Brenton Doyle’s absence in the lineup was primarily due to minor injuries. Of note, he missed 10 games last year for injuries all over his body. It’s unclear if that will lead to something bigger this year or if it was a coincidence, but it’s something to remember nonetheless. All that being said, health is the only thing standing in the way of everyday playing time, and it looks like Doyle should continue this string stretch. Draft with confidence.
21. Seiya Suzuki – Chicago Cubs
2024 – 132 games played, 512 at-bats, 585 plate appearances
The story of Seiya Suzuki’s career so far has been that he is a talented player when he is on the field. While his 381 games played over three seasons are not at all bad, it speaks volumes about his inability to reach his full potential. Each season he has missed time on the Injured List, and for now the story is that he is a player who repeatedly gets injured. All that being said, while all of his injuries have lasted longer than the ten-day minimum, they all haven’t exceeded one month. The hope is that his body can adjust to the game here in North America. His move to DH on the Cubs should help facilitate that. Draft with attention.
22. Luis Robert Jr. – Chicago White Sox
2024 – 100 games played, 393 at-bats, 425 plate appearances
This comes as a genuine surprise, but Luis Robert Jr. has been placed on the Injured List just four times over his career because of physical ailments. While this is still a healthy-sized yet unhealthy-to-say number, it is somewhat low considering the aura that Robert gives of being injury-prone. This doesn’t change the fact that he has played in more than 100 games in a season just once, and only recorded over 400 at-bats once as well. His draft price may never be lower, but there has been no indication of him doing anything different to maintain a healthier person, and thus remains a liability. Draft with caution.
23. Bryan Reynolds – Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 – 156 games played, 622 at-bats, 692 plate appearances
Bryan Reynolds has had a safe Injury History over his six-year career, even though he had some physical problems in 2023. Still, that was the only season in which he missed time due to injury, and he bounced back in a big way last year with 156 games played. Look for him to continue this in 2025 as he will gain first-base eligibility at some point. The hope is that not only raises his value on the field but is an avenue to keep himself healthy once again. Draft with confidence.
24. Cody Bellinger – New York Yankees
25. Anthony Santander – Toronto Blue Jays
2024 – 155 games played, 595 at-bats, 665 plate appearances
Anthony Santander has done very well to overcome the stigma of being labeled as injury-prone. Since the start of the 2022 season, he has missed just 26 games played by the Orioles. Of those 23 games, only a handful of them have been for physical ailments that needed a day or two to heal. That’s some incredible endurance for a player who missed significant time to start his career with an elbow injury. Draft with confidence.
26. Riley Greene – Detroit Tigers
2024 – 137 games played, 512 at-bats, 584 plate appearances
Riley Greene suffered a major elbow injury in 2023, resulting in the need for Tommy John Surgery and rehabilitation in the offseason. He came into the 2024 season with high hopes for a breakout, and while it didn’t necessarily happen to the extent it was projected, he still managed to do well. His hamstring injury midseason caused some of his lack of progression, but overall, he remains someone whose injury history is something to consider. He suffered a broken foot while in the Minor Leagues back in 2022 as well. While all of this could mean he’s garnering an injury-prone label, his 2025 season might be the turning point in one direction or the other. For now, he will be a yellow light with eyes on the future. Draft with attention.
27. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers
2024 – 73 games played, 270 at-bats, 315 plate appearances
There are some players whose future remains up in the air, and Yelich is one of them. For years he suffered from back injuries that prevented him from reaching his full potential from a fantasy and real-life perspective. Since his time in the earliest of the Minor League system, his lingering back issue has caused him to miss significant time. By the middle of the 2024 season, it was said that his back was hurting so much that it prevented him from functioning on an everyday level as a human being. The decision to have surgery wasn’t an easy one but done early enough to give him a chance to start the season healthy. As of early February, it was reported that he would likely not be ready for the start of Spring Training, and he has taken some swings at camp. Last season, while injured, he was still able to produce offensively and finish with his best batting average in years. While a half-season missed is tough to swallow, it’s worth noting that he has the capability to be productive even when he is playing through an injury. He’s probably worth drafting at his current reduced price, but it all depends on how risk-averse you are and how many chances you can afford to take. Above all else, back surgeries are not to be taken lightly. Draft with caution.
28. Spencer Steer – Cincinnati Reds
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
