Dave Funnell continues his series looking at the injury history and risk position by position. This week, he digs into the injury concerns at first base. For more injury analysis make sure to follow Dave on Twitter @sportz_nutt51.
When assessing the future stats of a player, it’s imperative to consider player health and injury risk when speculating on playing time. After all, getting onto the field and being given a chance to succeed only happens if the player is healthy enough. That’s why looking at a player’s track record of health gives credence to whether someone is worth drafting. A fantasy team could have all the talent in the world, but if they’re on your Injured List or bench, they lose a ton of value.
We are moving toward draft season, and all eyes will be on the top players at each position. Knowing of any inherent risk to drafting someone can help teams in the long run. That’s why going through the examinations of injury risk is important for roster construction. The following will be the Injury History of the top players at every position with special notes on their healthy or troubled pasts. Seeing trends in their health could help determine any future problems.
The players listed below will be separated into one of three categories: red light, yellow light, green light. The timeframe that will be examined will primarily be from 2021 to 2023, though looking into the distant past might also take place.
Red Light: any players listed here have an extensive and/or concerning injury history that seems likely to come into play in the future. The potential for injury outweighs their production on the field and their selection could lead to roster problems down the line. The reoccurrence of a particular injury or multiple injuries also creates the need for a red light. Fantasy owners should be wary of drafting these players because the risk of injury is high.
Yellow Light: any players listed here have had their injury problems before, but they’re not necessarily prone to injury. These players here have situations to monitor, especially during the off-season and Spring Training, but it’s not necessarily as bleak as it could be. The types of injuries could also be freakish or due to bad luck with events leading to it being out of the ordinary. Fantasy owners should be aware of the injury history, but know the possibility for health is there too.
Green Light: any players listed here have had minimal problems and their future doesn’t appear to be in any jeopardy. There is nothing from their past that would indicate an injury-prone future. While injuries could happen at any time, there are no red flags in this player’s history to suggest it will lead to another one. Fantasy owners can feel safe in drafting these players.
Things to remember:
- The players listed are in the general order from which they are being drafted.
- The level of confidence has to do with their health and nothing to do with their abilities on the field.
- A player’s injured past is not a direct indication that they will get injured in the future.
- Pitchers tend to be more prone to getting injured as opposed to hitters, especially with long-term injuries.
- The minimum time away on the Injured List is ten days for hitters and fifteen days for pitchers.
MLB Injury Risk at First Base
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays
2024: 159 games played, 616 at-bats, 697 plate appearances
Since the start of his career, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a workhorse for the Toronto Blue Jays. Whether it was playing through the entire pandemic year or grinding through a full 162-game season, he has played in 96% of Toronto’s games since the start of 2020. He enters 2020 with a healthier and more actively fit body and he is also a leader in their clubhouse. Draft with confidence.
2. Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies
2024: 145 games played, 550 at-bats, 631 plate appearances
For someone as solid and reliable at the plate as Bryce Harper is, he does have a surprisingly long Injury History. Over his long career, he has been placed on the Injured List seven different times for ailments all over his body. The good news is that many of those instances had to deal with fractures and bruises, and those can be excused randomized, and freakish in nature. The last two years, however, are the ones to monitor, because they could be the result of him getting older and his body wearing down. Despite entering his age-32 season, he does have thirteen seasons under his belt with a lot of mileage. Both Tommy John Surgery and a strained hamstring impacted his 2024 season and that might be the start of some worry. Still, he’s good enough that for now, he will remain green, but a watchful eye for something more is on the horizon. Draft with confidence.
3. Freddie Freeman – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024: 147 games played, 542 at-bats, 638 plate appearances
Freddie Freeman missed time in 2024 due to health concerns for his son but was otherwise an everyday presence in the lineup for most of his recent career. He did injure his ankle toward the end of the season, but it didn’t impact him as much as people thought it would as he wound up winning the World Series MVP trophy. Still, he underwent surgery to repair it after the season, and even though he is expected to be ready for Opening Day, it is something to monitor once Spring Training resumes. Draft with attention.
4. Matt Olson – Atlanta Braves
2024: 162 games played, 600 at-bats, 685 plate appearances
Matt Olson has missed just four of his team’s games since the start of the pandemic-shortened season. He is someone that should continue that trend in 2025. Draft with confidence.
5. Pete Alonso – Free Agent
2024: 162 games played, 608 at-bats, 695 plate appearances
Pete Alonso has had a relatively healthy career, outside of a sprained wrist injury that hurt his production in 2023. There is some speculation that his quick return to play that year was the result of an unusually down season with his career-low batting average. He will continue to be one of the best and most consistent players in baseball next season. Draft with confidence.
6. Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals
7. Josh Naylor – Arizona Diamondbacks
2024: 152 games played, 563 at-bats, 633 plate appearances
After injuring his ankle in 2021 and working through its surgical repair in 2022, Naylor has been relatively healthy for the rest of his career. In 2023 he had moments here and there when days off were needed to rest, but it hasn’t stopped his production on the field. He logged close to a full season of work last year and looks poised to do so with his new team in 2025. Just keep an eye on him with regard to his body. He is listed at 250 pounds but is under six feet tall, and that sort of frame could lead to injuries in the future. However, this type of speculation isn’t enough to warrant any doubts just yet. Draft with confidence.
8. Christian Walker – Houston Astros
2024: 130 games played, 479 at-bats, 552 plate appearances
Christian Walker has a unique injury history in that he has only missed significant in-season time on the Injured List due to oblique injuries, two of which occurred during the 2021 season. Last year was his third, and he needed just under six weeks from which to recover, which is quite normal. He looks to be locked into everyday at-bats for the Astros and there is nothing to suggest that he will be at risk. Draft with confidence.
9. Vinnie Pasquantino – Kansas City Royals
2024: 131 games played, 496 at-bats, 554 plate appearances
Vinnie Pasquantino had a time-costly injury history prior to his 2024 season due to a shoulder problem that took two years to heal properly. His only blemish in 2024 was a freakish injury near the end of the season, but he otherwise looks like a safe bet to play a full season. Draft with confidence.
10. Cody Bellinger – New York Yankees
2024: 130 games played, 516 at-bats, 569 plate appearances
Cody Bellinger has worked hard to revitalize himself since his MVP season back in 2019, and while he should provide stability for the Yankees, it doesn’t come without some warning. Since the start of the 2021 season, he has gone on the Injured List four times, with three of those being for fractured parts of the body. What that says is that he plays hard, but that his body can’t always take what it’s being given. Also, fractures are on the low end of carry-over injuries when examining the idea of future ailments. Furthermore, despite those setbacks, he’s managed to play in at least 130 games per season over the last three years, so the same can be expected here again. Draft with confidence.
11. Triston Casas – 1B Boston Red Sox
2024: 63 games played, 212 at-bats, 243 plate appearances
Triston Casas is highly touted around the league for the potential that he brings, and the end of his 2024 season gives fantasy owners even more hope. Unfortunately, it took months of rehabilitation and recovery to get to that point due to broken bones around his ribcage that hurt so much that he found it difficult to function on a daily basis. He seems fully healthy and ready to go for a new season, but there are some red flags. For one, the comments that he made this past year are concerning in that his descriptions of his pain were similar to that of being stabbed by a knife making it difficult for him to breathe. If that is true, then perhaps there is more to this injury than we even know. Secondly, the Red Sox themselves have been rumored to be trying to trade him. That means the team that knows him best might be trying to capitalize on the hype before it comes crashing down. That could be over-analysis, but at the end of the day, these are things to consider. Draft with attention.
12. Spencer Steer – Cincinnati Reds
2024: 158 games played, 574 at-bats, 656 plate appearances
Spencer Steer has had a relatively healthy start to his short career. He should receive everyday at-bats for the Reds in 2025. Draft with confidence.
13. Jake Burger – Texas Rangers
2024: 137 games played, 535 at-bats, 579 plate appearances
Jake Burger has been a solid contributor to the Miami lineup for the past two seasons. Despite being placed on the Injured List twice, he has been able to log 141 and 137 games respectively over that time and should continue that trend with his new team in Texas. Look for him to be a steady force in their lineup in 2025 with minimal health concerns. Draft with confidence.
14. Michael Toglia – Colorado Rockies
2024: 116 games played, 399 at-bats, 458 plate appearances
Michael Toglia has had a healthy start to his short career. He should receive everyday at-bats for the Rockies in 2025. Draft with confidence.
15. Paul Goldschmidt – New York Yankees
2024: 154 games played, 599 at-bats, 654 plate appearances
Paul Goldschmidt has been an absolute stud when it comes to health. He has been placed on the Injured List just once in his long career, and that was for a fractured hand when he was hit by a pitch way back in 2014. He is someone who will be in the lineup every day regardless of output. That being said, one has to wonder if his new team, the Yankees, will look elsewhere and give him time off to adjust if he struggles. Still, when it comes to health, there are few that are more reliable than him. Draft with confidence.
16. Luis Arraez – San Diego Padres
2024: 117 games played, 500 at-bats, 524 plate appearances
Luis Arraez suffered a torn ligament in his thumb and had surgery to repair it once the season was over. It impacted him slightly but he did grind through it during the second half. Something to monitor too, as he has had multiple lower-body ailments throughout his career resulting in time missed here and there. It was never significant enough to miss long stretches of games, but enough nonetheless. All that being said, he should play every day. Draft with confidence.
17. Yandy Diaz – Tampa Bay Rays
2024: 145 games played, 563 at-bats, 621 plate appearances
Yandy Diaz has had many moments where he needed days off to heal ailments all over his body. Despite this, he has only been on the Injured List once since 2022, and that was due to Covid-19 symptoms. He seems to be a quick healer but does play for a team that isn’t afraid to mix and match. He should play every day and has been a steady force for three straight years. Draft with confidence.
18. Christian Encarnacion-Strand – Cincinnati Reds
2024: 29 games played, 116 at-bats, 123 plate appearances
Encarnacion-Strand had surgery on his wrist on July 11, 2024, to fix a fracture to repair ligaments. He ended a disappointing season early, limiting himself to just two home runs. He saw limited action in the Arizona Fall League, but he did show that he was healthy and feeling much better. With a full and normal offseason, he should be back and hit the ground running. Other than this major injury, his past looks pretty clean. Draft with attention.
19. Ryan Mountcastle – Baltimore Orioles
2024: 124 games played, 473 at-bats, 507 plate appearances
Ryan Mojntcastle has had three consecutive seasons where it feels like he left some production on the table. While the new dimensions at Camden Yards should help correct that, a look at his Injury History suggests that his health has also been an issue. Over his career, he has missed time with two separate wrist injuries, an issue with his shoulder, and two head injuries that resulted in time away. He is healthy heading into the season, and his draft price isn’t significant enough to where a potential absence will be a major gaffe, but fantasy owners should be prepared, just in case. Draft with attention.
20. Michael Busch – Chicago Cubs
2024: 152 games played, 496 at-bats, 567 plate appearances
Michael Busch has had a healthy start to his short career. He should receive everyday at-bats for the Cubs in 2025. Draft with confidence.
21. Nathaniel Lowe – Washington Nationals
2024: 140 games played, 486 at-bats, 565 plate appearances
Nathaniel Lowe missed time this past season with an oblique injury. It cost him less than a month of playing time, which is rare for this type of injury, as it usually takes longer for players to recover from this. Still, other than that, his Injury History looks clean and clear. He should receive everyday at-bats for the Nationals after being traded for by Washington. Draft with confidence.
22. Andrew Vaughn – Chicago White Sox
2024: 149 games played, 570 at-bats, 619 plate appearances
Andrew Vaughn has had a relatively healthy start to his career, with only minor bumps and bruises along the way. His plate appearances and at-bats have increased every year, making him an everyday player for the White Sox. Draft with confidence.
23. Jeimer Candelario – Cincinnati Reds
2024: 112 games played, 427 at-bats, 463 plate appearances
Jeimer Candelario had a disastrous debut season for the Reds in 2024, both on and off the field. He suffered through ailments all over his body before succumbing to a season-ending fractured big toe during a game that should have been rained out. Still, his history before 2024 is checkered with seven different Injury List designations. While he should bounce back this year and enjoy Cincinnati’s home ballpark perks, he doesn’t come without the risk of needing to be replaced on fantasy rosters. It’s also worth noting that the Reds are loaded with infield talent to replace him, should he struggle to stay healthy or perform. Draft with caution.
24. Jake Cronenworth – San Diego Padres
2024: 155 games played, 577 at-bats, 656 plate appearances
Jake Cronenworth bounced back after a disappointing 2023 season where he missed time with a fractured wrist. He was and will be an everyday player for the Padres on the right side of the infield in 2025. Draft with confidence.
25. Rhys Hoskins – Milwaukee Brewers
2024: 131 games played, 449 at-bats, 517 plate appearances
Rhys Hoskins has had his fair share of injuries over the years. He has missed significant time with ailments of his elbow, knee, groin, and more. While he does have many seasons with well over 100 games played, he does have others on his resumé with less than half of a season played. Needless to say, when he does get hurt, it may not be a minor injury. Draft with attention.
26. Tyler Soderstrom – Oakland Athletics
2024: 61 games played, 189 at-bats, 213 plate appearances
Tyler Soderstrom missed two months of action in 2024 with a stress fracture of his wrist. He was able to return to action in the middle of September and found success by hitting two home runs. He demonstrated that he is healthy now and looking to build on the gains he made last season. He looks to be ready for everyday at-bats in 2025. Draft with confidence.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
