Fantasy Baseball Pitching Risers and Fallers: Holmes Moving Higher

First, a bit of housekeeping. This is risers and fallers. This is not added and dropped. What it is, instead, is a list of players who have climbed the ranks the most over the last 10 days. This is a list of players who have risen in the ranks or fallen because of their production over that period, not just the hot new prospect that was just called up, or the pitcher that just came off an injury.

Also, I have made these numbers fit a standard 5×5 scoring system. So, if your league has settings for hit batsmen or pickoffs or any of the other 70+ categories Fantrax allows, then your ranking may be different.

More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report

This list includes only players ranked in the top 300.

Also, make sure to check out our latest starting pitcher rankings.

Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

PITCHING RISERS

Grant Holmes (SP, ATL) 

Holmes is the trickiest riser because the last 10 days contain both his best work and his worst start. He threw six scoreless innings against Miami on Aug. 4 and another six scoreless against the Yankees on Aug. 9, allowing just eight hits and three walks while striking out seven across those 12 innings. Then came Saturday’s six-run, 3⅔-inning disaster against Arizona. Even with that outing, his ERA for the year is sitting at 3.84, and he has seven wins. The ranking rise is based primarily on ignoring the last game and his ability to miss enough bats to remain fantasy relevant.

Bryan Woo (SP, SEA)

Woo has quietly put together one of the better recent stretches among starting pitchers. He entered the Yankees’ start with a 4.15 ERA and then allowed only three hits and one run over five innings against New York while striking out five. He followed that with another powerful performance against Houston on Aug. 16, allowing three hits and two runs while striking out five. Statcast shows a barrel rate drop from 9.1% to 5.4% and a hard-hit rate dip from 46% to 37%. His four-seam fastball average jumped from 95.1 mph to 96.8 mph.

Logan Webb (SP, SFG)

Webb continues to rise even more up the Fantrax rankings. Over his last 10 days, he has a 1.29 ERA and his WHIP, which ranks fifth, is only 0.64. His hard-hit rate is fourth during this period at only 20%. Over his last two games, he has given up zero home runs and only issued one walk. Webb altered his mix by increasing his changeup usage from 34% to 46% while scaling back his sinker from 40% to 29%. The change generated an elite 18.2% SwStr% (up from 13.1%).

MacKenzie Gore (SP, TEX)

Over the last 10 days, he has continued to help in the strikeout category with 14 more in 11 innings. For the year, he ranks 12th with 154. Gore’s four-seamer averaged 97.3 mph over the last 10 days, up from his season baseline of 95.8 mph. This increased velocity lifted his SwStr% from 11.4% to 15.6%. Statcast data shows his hard-hit percentage plummeted from 42.0% to 28.6%, and his barrel rate dropped from 8.9% down to 3.2%.

Ryan Weathers (SP, NYY)

Weathers continues his breakout stretch with another strong 10-day run. Pitching 13 innings in his last two games, he has a 1.38 ERA. If the Yankees hitters were doing their part, he should have 2 wins and 2 quality starts. It’s hard to do that when your team scores only 2 runs for you over those two games. His velocity is still rising while the exit velocity generated by the hitters is falling.

PITCHING FALLERS

Walbert Ureña (SP, LAA) 

Ureña is a good example of why a ranking can fall even when the most recent start was excellent. On Aug. 8, he lasted only 2⅓ innings against Miami and surrendered four earned runs. He rebounded on Aug. 14, shutting out Texas for six innings while allowing two hits, two walks, and striking out five. That gives him a 10-day profile of 8⅓ innings, a 4.32 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, with a 1.67 K ratio. Statcast still likes him: 86.8 mph average exit velocity and a 32.8% hard-hit rate, both better than league average. There is no 10-day velocity or SwStr% change large enough to call a trend. The ranking decline is more about the short outing and elevated WHIP than a collapse in stuff.

Will Warren (SP, NYY)

Warren’s baseline command has unraveled over his past two outings, culminating in a 4.0-inning, 5-earned-run setback against Seattle on August 12. Over his last 10 days, Warren’s ERA spiked from 3.85 to 6.75 across 9.1 innings pitched. His strikeout-to-walk ratio collapsed from a steady 3.50 down to a concerning 0.86, fueled by six walks issued against five strikeouts. His opponent’s barrel rate jumped from 6.8% to 14.3%, while his SwStr% plummeted from 11.8% to 6.2%.

Robbie Ray (SP, SDP)

Ray’s ranking decline is more complicated because his season has actually been OK. He has a 3.28 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 131 innings. Ray’s ranking dip is tied to a rough recent stretch: 6 ER vs Houston, 2 ER vs Milwaukee, and rising walk totals (8 BB in his last 9 IP). Part of his problem is that he just isn’t living up to his usual standards. His career K/9 is 10.57, and this year it is down to 7.72. His BB/9 is going the other way, UP from a career 3.85 to a 4.44.

Casey Mize (SP, SDP) 

Mize’s trajectory was severely altered by a disastrous August 5 outing at Arizona where he yielded eight earned runs on nine hits in just 3.1 innings. Even with a 6.0-inning shutout bounce back against Cleveland on August 16, Mize’s 10-day ERA sits at an elevated 5.87 over 15.1 innings. Opponents squared him up relentlessly during this span, as his average exit velocity allowed rose from 87.2 mph to 92.4 mph, and his hard-hit percentage swelled from 34.1% to 48.6%. The ranking decline is primarily the eight-run Padres debut.

Bryce Miller (SP, SEA)

He has had a difficult last two starts. Miller gave up 5 earned runs against the Yankees over 6 innings and 4 over 5 innings to the Tigers. He has given up at least one home run in his last six starts. Over the last 10 days, he has a 7.5 ERA. His barrel rate allowed jumped from 6.2% to 13.5%, and his overall hard-hit percentage spiked from 36.0% to 51.4%