One of the great things about advanced statistics over the last decade is the ability to measure a player’s true performance independent of luck. For hitters, the BABIP (batted balls in play) statistic is reliably accurate in identifying when a hitter’s high batting average may be driven by luck. For pitchers, the FIP (fielding independent pitching) provides a similar measure. This stat looks solely at outcomes a pitcher can control, like strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Anything else involves fielding, and that’s out of their control. This is a key aspect of assessing if a slumping pitcher is just having bad luck or a victim of a poor defensive team. This gets factored into weekly start confidence ratings that go into the weekly starting pitcher rankings.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings for Week 15 (6/30 – 7/6)
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | DET | @CLE | 9 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | CWS | 9 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | LAA | 8 |
| Garrett Crochet | BOS/ @WSH | CIN | 8 (BOS=7 & @WSH=9) |
| Hunter Brown | HOU | @COL | 8 |
| Joe Ryan | MIN | @MIA/ TB | 8 (both matchups) |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | SD/ CIN | 8 (both matchups) |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | STL | 8 |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | KC | 8 |
| Luis Castillo | SEA | PIT | 8 |
| Jacob Lopez | ATH | @TB | 7 (both matchups) |
| Spencer Strider | ATL | BAL | 7 |
| Shota Imanaga | CHC | CLE | 7 |
| Seth Lugo | KC | @SEA | 7 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | CWS | 7 |
| Dustin May | LAD | CWS | 7 |
| Max Fried | NYY | @TOR | 7 (both matchups) |
| Clarke Schmidt | NYY | @TOR | 7 |
| Carlos Rodon | NYY | @NYM | 7 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | SD | 7 |
| Jesus Luzardo | PHI | CIN | 7 |
| Ranger Suarez | PHI | CIN | 7 |
| Sonny Gray | STL | @PIT | 7 |
| Logan Webb | SF | @ARI/ @ATH | 7 (@ARI=6 & @ATH=8) |
| Robbie Ray | SF | @ARI | 7 |
| George Kirby | SEA | KC | 7 (both matchups) |
| Bryan Woo | SEA | KC | 7 |
| Shane Baz | TB | ATH | 7 |
| Ryan Pepiot | TB | ATH | 7 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | BAL | 7 |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | NYY/ LAA | 7 (NYY=6 & LAA=8) |
| Merrill Kelly | ARI | SF | 6 |
| Jeffrey Springs | ATH | @TB | 6 |
| Grant Holmes | ATL | LAA/ BAL | 6 (LAA=7 & BAL=5) |
| Lucas Giolito | BOS | @WSH | 6 |
| Jack Flaherty | DET | @WSH | 6 |
| Casey Mize | DET | @CLE | 6 |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | @LAD | 6 |
| Michael Wacha | KC | @SEA | 6 (both matchups) |
| Kris Bubic | KC | @ARI | 6 |
| MacKenzie Gore | WSH | DET | 6 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | @ATL | 6 |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | @NYM | 6 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | @NYM | 6 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | @MIA | 6 |
| Bailey Ober | MIN | TB | 6 |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | STL | 6 |
| Dylan Cease | SDP | @PHI | 6 |
| Landen Roupp | SF | @ARI | 6 |
| Emerson Hancock | SEA | KC/ PIT | 6 (both matchups) |
| Drew Rasmussen | TB | ATH/ @MIN | 6 (ATH=7 & @MIN=5) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | BAL | 6 |
| Ryne Nelson | ARI | SF/ KC | 5 (both matchups) |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | SF/ KC | 5 (both matchups) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | SF | 5 |
| Mitch Spence | ATH | @TB | 5 |
| JP Sears | ATH | SF | 5 |
| Bryce Elder | ATL | LAA | 5 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | @ATL | 5 |
| Dean Kremer | BAL | @ATL | 5 |
| Walker Buehler | BOS | @WSH | 5 |
| Matthew Boyd | CHC | CLE/ STL | 5 (CLE=6 & STL=4) |
| Cade Horton | CHC | CLE | 5 |
| Nick Martinez | CIN | @BOS | 5 |
| Andrew Abbott | CIN | @PHI | 5 |
| Tanner Bibee | CLE | @CHC | 5 |
| Reese Olson | DET | @WSH/ @CLE | 5 (both matchups) |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @WSH | 5 |
| Michael Lorenzen | KC | @SEA/ @ARI | 5 (both matchups) |
| Noah Cameron | KC | @SEA | 5 |
| Jose Soriano | LAA | @ATL | 5 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | HOU | 5 |
| Edward Cabrera | MIA | MIN/ MIL | 5 (both matchups) |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | MIL | 5 |
| Cal Quantrill | MIA | MIL | 5 |
| Jose Quintana | MIL | @NYM | 5 |
| Quinn Priester | MIL | @MIA | 5 |
| Chad Patrick | MIL | @MIA | 5 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | @MIA | 5 |
| David Festa | MIN | @MIA | 5 |
| Chris Paddack | MIN | TB | 5 |
| Clay Holmes | NYM | MIL/ NYY | 5 (MIL=6 & NYY=4) |
| David Peterson | NYM | MIL | 5 |
| Will Warren | NYY | @TOR | 5 |
| Andrew Heaney | PIT | STL/ @SEA | 5 (STL=4 & @SEA=6) |
| Mike Burrows | PIT | @SEA | 5 |
| Nick Pivetta | SDP | @PHI/ TEX | 5 (both matchups) |
| Hayden Birdsong | SF | @ARI/ @ATH | 5 (@ARI=4 & @ATH=6) |
| Justin Verlander | SF | @ATH | 5 |
| Zack Littell | TB | @MIN | 5 |
| Chris Bassitt | TOR | NYY | 5 |
| Eric Lauer | TOR | LAA | 5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | KC | 4 |
| Luis Severino | ATH | SF | 4 |
| Zach Eflin | BAL | @ATL | 4 |
| Richard Fitts | BOS | CIN | 4 |
| Brayan Bello | BOS | CIN | 4 |
| Colin Rea | CHC | STL | 4 |
| Adrian Houser | CWS | @LAD | 4 |
| Chase Burns | CIN | @BOS/ @PHI | 4 (both matchups) |
| Brady Singer | CIN | @BOS | 4 |
| Nick Lodolo | CIN | @PHI | 4 |
| Luis Ortiz | CLE | @CHC | 4 |
| Chase Dollander | COL | HOU/ CWS | 4 (HOU=3 & CWS=5) |
| Brandon Walter | HOU | @COL | 4 |
| Kyle Hendricks | LAA | @TOR | 4 |
| Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @TOR | 4 |
| Mitchell Parker | WSH | BOS | 4 |
| Justin Wrobleski | LAD | HOU | 4 |
| Ben Casparius | LAD | HOU | 4 |
| Janson Junk | MIA | MIN | 4 |
| Eury Perez | MIA | MIN | 4 |
| Marcus Stroman | NYY | @TOR/ @MIN | 4 (both matchups) |
| Bailey Falter | PIT | @SEA | 4 |
| Erick Fedde | STL | @PIT/ @CHC | 4 (@PIT=5 & @CHC=3) |
| Andre Pallante | STL | @PIT | 4 |
| Matthew Liberatore | STL | @CHC | 4 |
| Taj Bradley | TB | @MIN | 4 |
| Jose Berrios | TOR | NYY | 4 |
| Jake Irvin | WSH | DET | 4 |
| Didier Fuentes | ATL | BAL | 3 |
| Trevor Rogers | BAL | @TEX | 3 |
| Charlie Morton | BAL | @TEX | 3 |
| Cade Povich | BAL | @TEX | 3 |
| Aaron Civale | CWS | @LAD | 3 |
| Shane Smith | CWS | @COL | 3 |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | @CHC/ DET | 3 (@CHC=2 & DET=4) |
| Logan Allen | CLE | DET | 3 |
| Austin Gomber | COL | HOU | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | CWS | 3 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | @LAD | 3 |
| Tyler Anderson | LAA | @ATL/ @TOR | 3 (@ATL=2 & @TOR=4) |
| Paul Blackburn | NYM | NYY | 3 |
| Frankie Montas | NYM | NYY | 3 |
| Mick Abel | PHI | SD | 3 |
| Michael Soroka | WSH | BOS | 3 |
| Randy Vasquez | SDP | TEX | 3 |
| Trevor Williams | WSH | DET/ BOS | 3 (both matchups) |
| Stephen Kolek | SDP | TEX | 3 |
| Kumar Rocker | TEX | @SD | 3 |
| Jack Leiter | TEX | @SD | 3 |
| Max Scherzer | TOR | NYY/ LAA | 3 (NYY=2 & LAA=4) |
| Jameson Taillon | CHC | STL | 2 |
| Sean Burke | CWS | @LAD | 2 (both matchups) |
| Slade Cecconi | CLE | DET | 2 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | HOU | 2 |
| German Marquez | COL | CWS | 2 |
| Colton Gordon | HOU | @COL | 2 (both matchups) |
| Miles Mikolas | STL | @CHC | 2 |
| Patrick Corbin | TEX | BAL | 2 (both matchups) |
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What happened to the Nats” pitchers?
Thank you for bringing to my attention. It appears those players were missed in the sorting/ pasting of data. They will be added in to the list soon but for your immediate reference I’ve listed the player and their rating below:
Gore vs. DET= 6
Parker vs. BOS= 4
Soroka vs. BOS= 3
Williams vs. DET & BOS= 3 (both matchups)
Irvin vs. DET= 3
Not a great week for streaming Nats pitchers despite being at home.