The heat is on for starting pitchers, in many ways, as we enter May. From a literal sense, it’s quickly warming up across the country as spring starts to feel like summer more often than not. This change in high temperatures can actually have an impact on how far the ball travels when hit. In fact, a Washington Post research article from 2023 found that home run rates go up by nearly 2% for every 1.8-degree rise in temperature. Thus, no matter the park dimensions, warming temperatures pose a new challenge for pitchers.
Also, from a figurative sense, many fantasy owners are losing patience with several pitchers having rough starts to their season. While we never recommend dropping an ace, there are many mid-round pitchers who are more easily replaceable. Now, the rising temperatures will only make it tougher for those pitchers to rebound. That’s why we account for location conditions, especially as the seasons change, for each pitcher’s matchups to best project the start confidence rating in the weekly starting pitcher rankings.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings for Week 6 (4/28 – 5/4)
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Opponent | Start Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | WSH | 10 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @LAA | 9 |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | @TOR/ MIN | 8 (both matchups) |
| 4 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | @PIT/ @MIL | 8 (both matchups) |
| 5 | Hunter Greene | CIN | STL | 8 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @CWS | 8 |
| 7 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @CWS | 8 |
| 8 | Max Fried | NYY | TBR | 8 |
| 9 | Michael King | SDP | SFG | 8 |
| 10 | Logan Webb | SFG | @SDP/ COL | 8 (@SDP=7 & COL=9) |
| 11 | Corbin Burnes | ARI | @NYM | 7 |
| 12 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @NYM | 7 |
| 13 | Cole Ragans | KCR | @TBR/ @BAL | 7 (@TBR=8 & @BAL=6) |
| 14 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | DET | 7 |
| 15 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | @ATL | 7 |
| 16 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @ATL | 7 |
| 17 | Max Meyer | MIA | ATH | 7 |
| 18 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | @CLE | 7 |
| 19 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | WSH | 7 |
| 20 | Aaron Nola | PHI | ARI | 7 |
| 21 | Paul Skenes | PIT | CHC | 7 |
| 22 | Sonny Gray | STL | NYM | 7 |
| 23 | Nick Pivetta | SDP | SFG/ @PIT | 7 (both matchups) |
| 24 | Robbie Ray | SFG | COL | 7 |
| 25 | Bryan Woo | SEA | LAA | 7 |
| 26 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @TEX | 7 |
| 27 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @TEX | 7 |
| 28 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | ATH | 7 (both matchups) |
| 29 | Tyler Mahle | TEX | ATH | 7 |
| 30 | Chris Sale | ATL | @COL | 6 |
| 31 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | @PIT | 6 |
| 32 | Shane Smith | CWS | MIL | 6 |
| 33 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | STL | 6 |
| 34 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | WSH | 6 |
| 35 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @HOU | 6 |
| 36 | Jackson Jobe | DET | @LAA | 6 |
| 37 | Hayden Wesneski | HOU | DET | 6 |
| 38 | Jose Soriano | LAA | DET | 6 |
| 39 | Dustin May | LAD | MIA | 6 |
| 40 | Roki Sasaki | LAD | @ATL | 6 |
| 41 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CWS/ CHC | 6 (@CWS=7 & CHC=5) |
| 42 | Joe Ryan | MIN | @BOS | 6 |
| 43 | Kodai Senga | NYM | ARI | 6 |
| 44 | Clay Holmes | NYM | ARI | 6 |
| 45 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @STL | 6 |
| 46 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | @BAL | 6 |
| 47 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | WSH/ ARI | 6 (WSH=7 & ARI=5) |
| 48 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | ARI | 6 |
| 49 | Mitch Keller | PIT | SDP | 6 |
| 50 | Dylan Cease | SDP | @PIT | 6 |
| 51 | Jordan Hicks | SFG | COL | 6 |
| 52 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | LAA | 6 |
| 53 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @TEX | 6 |
| 54 | Shane Baz | TBR | KCR | 6 |
| 55 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | ATH | 6 |
| 56 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | CLE | 6 |
| 57 | MacKenzie Gore | WSH | @PHI | 6 |
| 58 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @PHI | 5 |
| 59 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @PHI | 5 |
| 60 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | LAD | 5 |
| 61 | Tanner Houck | BOS | @TOR | 5 |
| 62 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | @TOR | 5 |
| 63 | Walker Buehler | BOS | MIN | 5 |
| 64 | Brayan Bello | BOS | MIN | 5 |
| 65 | Ben Brown | CHC | @MIL | 5 |
| 66 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | @MIL | 5 |
| 67 | Brady Singer | CIN | STL/ WSH | 5 (both matchups) |
| 68 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | MIN/ @TOR | 5 (both matchups) |
| 69 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @TOR | 5 |
| 70 | Reese Olson | DET | @HOU/ @LAA | 5 (@HOU=4 & @LAA=6) |
| 71 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | DET | 5 |
| 72 | Seth Lugo | KCR | @TBR | 5 |
| 73 | Kris Bubic | KCR | @BAL | 5 |
| 74 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | MIA | 5 |
| 75 | Tobias Myers | MIL | @CWS | 5 |
| 76 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CLE/ @BOS | 5 (both matchups) |
| 77 | Griffin Canning | NYM | @WSH/ @STL | 5 (both matchups) |
| 78 | David Peterson | NYM | ARI/ @STL | 5 (both matchups) |
| 79 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | TBR | 5 |
| 80 | Luis Severino | ATH | @TEX | 5 |
| 81 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | @TEX | 5 |
| 82 | Osvaldo Bido | ATH | @MIA | 5 |
| 83 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | CHC/ SDP | 5 (both matchups) |
| 84 | Justin Verlander | SFG | COL | 5 |
| 85 | Taj Bradley | TBR | KCR/ @NYY | 5 (KCR=6 & @NYY=4) |
| 86 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR | KCR | 5 |
| 87 | Ryan Pepiot | TBR | @NYY | 5 |
| 88 | Bowden Francis | TOR | BOS/ CLE | 5 (BOS=4 & CLE=6) |
| 89 | Jose Berrios | TOR | BOS | 5 |
| 90 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | BOS | 5 |
| 91 | Mitchell Parker | WSH | @CIN | 5 |
| 92 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | @NYM/ @PHI | 4 (both matchups) |
| 93 | Grant Holmes | ATL | LAD | 4 |
| 94 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | NYY/ KCR | 4 (NYY=3 & KCR=5) |
| 95 | Dean Kremer | BAL | KCR | 4 |
| 96 | Colin Rea | CHC | @PIT | 4 |
| 97 | Sean Burke | CWS | MIL | 4 |
| 98 | Nick Martinez | CIN | STL/ WSH | 4 (both matchups) |
| 99 | Logan Allen | CLE | MIN | 4 |
| 100 | Chase Dollander | COL | ATL | 4 |
| 101 | Kyle Freeland | COL | @SFG | 4 |
| 102 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | @SFG | 4 |
| 103 | Casey Mize | DET | @HOU/ @LAA | 4 (@HOU=3 & @LAA=5) |
| 104 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | DET | 4 |
| 105 | Michael Lorenzen | KCR | @TBR | 4 |
| 106 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @SEA/ DET | 4 (both matchups) |
| 107 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @SEA | 4 |
| 108 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | DET | 4 |
| 109 | Ben Casparius | LAD | MIA | 4 |
| 110 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | @LAD | 4 |
| 111 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | ATH | 4 |
| 112 | Chad Patrick | MIL | @CWS | 4 |
| 113 | Quinn Priester | MIL | CHC | 4 |
| 114 | Jose Quintana | MIL | CHC | 4 |
| 115 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @CLE/ @BOS | 4 (both matchups) |
| 116 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | @CLE | 4 |
| 117 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | TBR | 4 |
| 118 | JP Sears | ATH | @TEX/ @MIA | 4 (@TEX=3 & @MIA=5) |
| 119 | J.T. Ginn | ATH | @TEX | 4 (@TEX=3 & @MIA=5) |
| 120 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | @CIN | 4 |
| 121 | Erick Fedde | STL | NYM | 4 |
| 122 | Randy Vasquez | SDP | @PIT | 4 |
| 123 | Landen Roupp | SFG | @SDP | 4 |
| 124 | Zack Littell | TBR | @NYY | 4 |
| 125 | Jack Leiter | TEX | SEA | 4 |
| 126 | AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL | @COL/ LAD | 3 (@COL= 4 & LAD=2) |
| 127 | Cade Povich | BAL | NYY | 3 |
| 128 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | NYY | 3 |
| 129 | Bryse Wilson | CWS | MIL/ HOU | 3 (MIL=4 & HOU=2) |
| 130 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | HOU | 3 |
| 131 | Luis Ortiz | CLE | MIN/ @TOR | 3 (both matchups) |
| 132 | Ben Lively | CLE | MIN | 3 |
| 133 | German Marquez | COL | ATL/ @SFG | 3 (ATL=2 & @SFG=4) |
| 134 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @SFG | 3 |
| 135 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | @CWS | 3 |
| 136 | Michael Wacha | KCR | @BAL | 3 |
| 137 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | @LAD/ ATH | 3 (both matchups) |
| 138 | Will Warren | NYY | @BAL | 3 |
| 139 | Carlos Carrasco | NYY | @BAL | 3 |
| 140 | Carmen Mlodzinski | PIT | CHC | 3 |
| 141 | Bailey Falter | PIT | SDP | 3 |
| 142 | Steven Matz | STL | @CIN/ NYM | 3 (both matchups) |
| 143 | Miles Mikolas | STL | @CIN | 3 |
| 144 | Trevor Williams | WSH | NYM/ @CIN | 3 (both matchups) |
| 145 | Jake Irvin | WSH | @PHI | 3 |
| 146 | Michael Soroka | WSH | @CIN | 3 |
| 147 | Bryce Elder | ATL | @COL | 2 |
| 148 | Charlie Morton | BAL | KCR | 2 |
| 149 | Davis Martin | CWS | HOU | 2 |
| 150 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | @LAD | 2 |
| 151 | Andre Pallante | STL | @CIN | 2 |
| 152 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | ATH/ SEA | 2 (both matchups) |
| 153 | Brad Lord | WSH | @PHI | 2 |
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