People nowadays will say that there are no more sleepers or busts in fantasy baseball. There is so much information out there, and drafters are becoming more adept at understanding all the data. Still, if you know where to look, you can find value in drafts. The trick is finding the right player to zig on when everyone else is zagging. Let everyone draft Emmet Sheehan higher than ADP. You can find better value – and that is what makes a sleeper a sleeper. With that in mind, this article will attempt to identify the top starting pitching sleepers of the 2026 fantasy baseball season.
Starting Pitching Sleepers
Sonny Gray BOS (136 ADP)
If Sonny Gray continues to be drafted past pick 100, he may be the best value in the draft this season, not just at pitcher, but at any position. Drafters value him at his surface stats from last year, but if you look under the hood, it paints a different picture.
Gray’s 4.28 ERA last season was a disappointment, both for him and fantasy baseball managers who rostered him. However, his 3.07 xFIP and 3.29 SIERA suggest he should have performed much better. There is also plenty of data to back this up.
In many respects, Gray had a career year. He struck out 10.0 batters per nine innings, while also posting the lowest BB/9 rate of his career at 1.80. He ranked seventh among qualified pitchers in K-BB%. Gray suffered from a .329 BABIP and a 69% LOB rate, playing in front of a below-average defense. He also had some bad home run luck, with a 14% HR/FB rate and a 1.2 HR/9 rate compared to a career rate under one. Yes, playing in Boston will not help his home run rate, but Gray induces grounders at a rate higher than league average and has excellent strikeout stuff. He should be able to mitigate damage from home runs.
In terms of his stuff, Gray had the best pitch at inducing outs last season among all starting pitchers. His sweeper had a 33% Out Rate, meaning he was inducing outs with that pitch a third of the time he was throwing it. His sinker was also above average in Out%. Gray should excel in Boston, where pitching coach Andrew Bailey can tap into his arsenal and continue to develop those pitches and others. And just for fun, take a look at this sweeper:
Sonny Gray's sweeper in 2025:
524p | 19% usage
⚾️ .150 BAA / .156 xBA
⚾️ .173 wOBA / .182 xwOBA
⚾️ 42% whiff rate
⚾️ 51% K rate
⚾️ 28% put-away rate
⚾️ 7 RVFlat-out disgusting. pic.twitter.com/Urd6cNX2l8
— G.G. (@ggeiss_mlb) November 25, 2025
Gray has a shot to easily be a top-100 player overall, with positive regression coming to his home run rate, LOB%, and ERA. Being able to draft him after that point makes him a great sleeper for 2026 drafts.
Gavin Williams CLE (150 ADP)
Gavin Williams is another pitcher who could possess top-100 value overall, but goes in the middle rounds of drafts. Williams finished last season with a 3.08 ERA, albeit with some data pointing to regression.
Williams had a .254 BABIP while inducing around league-average line drive and pull rates. This means his BABIP probably should have been higher. He also had an inflated 83% LOB rate. Combine regression to those factors, and it means he should have seen more baserunners and more runs scored, especially considering the high walk rate.
On the other hand, Williams has some filthy stuff, and with some minor tweaks, should see his strikeout rate continue to improve. In fact, he made some tweaks to his arsenal mid-season, using a cutter more. It turned out to be one of his best pitches in Out%, along with his curveball – both were above league average. Williams also tweaked his arm slot last season, which led to an improvement of nearly two walks per nine innings from the first half to the second.
It is possible that in 2026, Williams will improve his strikeout and walk rate while continuing to develop his arsenal. Even with some ERA regression, there is major value to be had here. This makes him one of my favorite sleepers this season.
Merrill Kelly ARI (239 ADP)
Many drafters overlook Merrill Kelly because of his age. This will be his age-37 season, but he has not shown significant signs of slowing down compared to recent seasons. His average fastball velocity last season was .1 MPH lower than in 2024. Even still, Kelly posted a 3.52 ERA in 184 IP.
Last season was Kelly’s third in five years with an ERA below 3.55 and his fourth with an xFIP under 4.00. The best ability in fantasy sports is reliability, and Kelly has been mostly reliable as of late. He dealt with injuries that limited him to 73 IP in 2024, but pitched at least 150 innings in 2021, ’22, ’23, and ’25. Since 2021, he has thrown 793 innings and averaged
- 8.2 K/9
- 2.7 BB/9
- 74% LOB
- 43% GB
The only other pitchers to average those numbers or better since 2021 (minimum 500 IP) are Chris Bassitt, Seth Lugo, Luis Castillo, Joe Musgrove, Nathan Eovaldi, Pablo Lopez, Clayton Kershaw, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Tarik Skubal. That is pretty good company.
Kelly’s stuff has continued to look good, which bodes well for another solid season. His changeup, slider, and sinker all grade above average in Out%. Kelly’s changeup has arguably improved with his age:
Merrill Kelly's changeup averaged 88.3 mph and a career-high 35.1" of vertical drop (w/gravity) in 2025.
Kelly's changeup averaged 86 mph and 24" of vertical drop in 2019.
That's nearly a foot of additional vertical drop since his MLB debut and an increase of over 2 mph. pic.twitter.com/oM93kMObPK
— Jesse Friedman (@JesseNFriedman) January 24, 2026
Keep letting drafters overlook and undervalue Kelly. That is what makes him one of the best sleepers in 2026 drafts.
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