Sultan of Stat: Advanced Hitting Statistics

All we want to do is react. But we know that we shouldn’t react. Or should we?

Yes, it’s early in the season, but at what point do we stop using that excuse? In general, it’s important to maintain a level head, but statistics and performances do normalize. An important task is to compare expected statistics to actual statistics and look for opportunities on the trade market.

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It’s never too early to start trading, but you don’t want to move on from a player too soon. Let’s take a look at some players who I’m not ready to give up on for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

Advanced Hitting Statistics – Expected Batting Average Gainers

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

If anyone has a proven track record of success, it’s going to be Freddie Freeman. The first baseman’s production has been nothing short of automatic as, for the most part, he seems to be above the fray when it comes to aging. That doesn’t mean Freeman isn’t immune to a decline, and that’s also not to say he’s already in the midst of one, but his reputation has earned him a level of trust.

While he did enter play on Monday hitting just .258, it’s shaping up to be one of his better seasons. Freeman has three home runs, and he’s already up to 13 RBIs. He’s striking out just 10.4% of the time, and with a .210 ISO, his power is very much real.

Freeman has a .312 xBA, but that’s not the largest disparity in his expected statistics. While his .635 xSLG is vastly better than anything we’ve seen from Freeman in recent times, it represents some real upside compared to his .468 SLG. The good news is that his 18.2% barrel rate and 49.1% hard hit rate support that production. His 92.5 MPH average exit velocity would be a career high if it stuck as well.

There’s nothing like the Dodgers lineup, and Freeman continues to reap the rewards. Don’t count him out just yet.

Dillon Dingler, C, Detroit Tigers

I don’t need to tell you that finding production at the catching position is difficult. Additionally, Dillon Dingler has some legitimate power, and he’s not afraid to use it. Prior to Monday’s game, though, Dingler is hitting .250, but he has a .305 xBA.

More importantly, it’s the quality of Dingler’s contact that catches my attention. He has an average exit velocity of 92.1 miles per hour with an EV90 of 105.9. Dingler already has six barrels and a 52.9% hard hit rate. It’s no surprise that he has a .619 xSLG to go along with his .477 SLG. Now, if Dingler can do something with his 6.6-degree average launch angle…

Through 14 games, Dingler has three home runs and 11 RBI with a .227 ISO. He’s become entrenched as the regular catcher and an important part of Detroit’s lineup. That’s something we can expect to continue.

Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Sometimes we get into a situation where things progress exactly how we expect them to at the start of the season. That’s not to say Alec Burleson will be a true All-Star, but he’s slated to have another strong season.

Burleson was hitting .259 before Monday’s game, but I’m going to focus on his .303 xBA. While Burleson only has two home runs on the season, his .603 xSLG (compared to a .407 SLG) really catches my attention. He has a 50% hard hit rate and is only striking out 7.6% of the time. With a 92.6 MPH average exit velocity, Burleson is making strong contact.

The fact that Burleson doesn’t strike out is a plus. He’s always had strong plate skills, and to begin the season, his expected stats are showing that there’s even more in the tank.