I feel like every time we look up, there’s another starting pitcher struggling. Blowups have, unfortunately, become all too commonplace. Ratios are taking a beating on a daily basis, and it’s rough out there.
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By no means are we discounting the results. After all, it’s the results we have to live with in the standings. But the past is the past. Those struggles have already happened, and it’s important to look forward. With that being said, all we can do is look forward. Let’s take a look at some starting pitchers through the lens of blast contact percentage.
While damage can come in any way, there’s generally a correlation between the quality of contact a hitter makes and the success they have. When a hitter squares the ball up, essentially strikes it really well, and does so with a high bat speed, good things are going to happen. From a pitching standpoint, we want to see as little of that, Blast Contact, as possible.
Advanced Pitching Statistics – Blast Contact %
Jose Soriano, Los Angeles
It’s too early for a victory lap, but we are getting closer to that territory for Jose Soriano. At the very least, no one can take away the insane start to the season that the right-hander has had.
Soriano has five wins in six starts while posting an insane 0.24 ERA through 37.2 innings entering play on Tuesday. It goes without saying, but Soriano has a 100% strand rate and a .205 BABIP, which are huge drivers of his success. However, even if Soriano pitched to his 2.73 xERA, no one would be disappointed or have anything negative to say.
He’s striking out a career high 10.27 batters per nine innings while bringing his walks down to 3.11 per nine innings. While we’re going to enjoy the success, there’s no way that Soriano will continue to be this dominant. However, it’s clear he’s found his groove and is reaching his potential. Relying a lot more on his fastball as compared to his slider has also played a role in that.
And when it comes to weaker contact, Soriano is at the top of the list. The right-hander is third with just an 8.3% blast contact rate. That puts him behind only Chris Sale and Paul Skenes, which happens to be pretty good company.
Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners
This is the fourth season that the former first-round pick has started games for the Mariners, and so far, it’s proving to be his best one. Hancock is striking out a career high 8.79 batters per nine innings while walking a career low 1.26.
He’s also pitching to a career low 2.84 ERA with a career best 95.1 miles per hour on his fastball. It also makes sense that his fastball usage has increased from 25.7% to 37.3%, with a corresponding decrease in his slider usage.
A deeper look into Hancock does get more interesting, though. For starters, he needs to keep the ball in the park. Allowing 1.82 home runs per nine innings isn’t exactly ideal. However, with a blast contact rate of 11.2%, Hancock is one of the best pitchers in the league in that metric. The result of that should be limited home runs. Additionally, Hancock’s 4.47 xERA is bound to create some concern.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t buy into Hancock, nor should we write him off. Instead, stay more towards the middle here. There’s a lot to like, and I’m not completely skeptical, but a 12% barrel rate doesn’t help either. Instead, it’s cautious optimism.
Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
There are a lot of exciting young players who grab our attention in Pittsburgh. One that we can’t ignore is Braxton Ashcraft.
The right-hander is ranked 11th overall with a blast contact rate of just 10.8%. Of course, this was prior to him allowing six runs over 4.1 innings on Tuesday. It’s still early in the season, so there are going to be some wild stat swings, but entering his start on Wednesday, Ashcraft had a 2.43 ERA and 2.07 xERA. Now, they sit at 3.71 and 3.13, but the point remains that he’s having a strong beginning to the season.
There are multiple factors for his success, and it’s not limited to his strong blast contact. Ashcraft is striking out 10.32 batters per nine innings while allowing 0.79 home runs per nine innings. The velocity is there, an average of 97 miles per hour on his fastball, and prior to Tuesday, Aschraft had allowed just three barreled balls all season.
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