The best players in baseball do everything well. The most talented hitters have great plate discipline, power, and contact-making ability. Electric stuff, elite command, and stamina are the hallmarks of the game’s top-tier pitchers. Finding a player who does all those things well – a “five-tool player” – is easier said than done. But the Cincinnati Reds could have one in the form of an underrated 34-year-old starting pitcher who’s rostered in 80% of Fantrax leagues and has an NFBC ADP of 331.
Five Reasons Nick Martinez is an Underrated Cy Young Candidate
Underrated Stuff
Although he is 34 years old, Martinez has an excellent arsenal. His sinker, fastball, changeup, and slider were all good for at least 3 Run Value last season, and he throws six different pitches at least 5% of the time. Despite unsightly whiff and strikeout rates last season, his 95th percentile chase rate (per Baseball Savant) showed hitters are uncomfortable at the plate against him – just as they have been for the last three years since he came back from a stint in Japan.
2022-2024 MLB Chase%, min. 350 IP
- Sandy Alcantara, MIA (37.9%)
- Bailey Ober, MIN (37.4%)
- Kevin Gausman, TOR (36.6%)
- Zack Wheeler, PHI (36.4%)
- Aaron Nola, PHI (36.3%)
- Pablo Lopez, MIN (36.2%)
- Zach Eflin, BAL (35.8%)
- George Kirby, SEA (35.8%)
- Kutter Crawford, BOS (35.6%)
- Tarik Skubal, DET (35.5%)
- Jordan Montgomery, ARI (35.4%)
- Nick Martinez, CIN (35.2%)
Martinez’s deep arsenal of pitches should help him limit hard contact next season, which – for fantasy managers – means a high ERA floor.
Fantastic Control
Limiting walks is an excellent way to maintain a high floor and score fantasy points year after year, and that is precisely what Martinez does.
After walking 8.7% of hitters in 2023, Martinez decreased his walk rate to 3.2% in 2024. Among qualified pitchers, only Lucas Erceg, Aaron Bummer, and Bryan Woo saw more of a decrease in free passes between those two seasons. And only George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners – a notorious strike thrower – had a lower walk rate in 2024.
Martinez’s ability to limit walks means a high WHIP floor, which is crucial for fantasy baseball managers – especially in roto leagues. The underrated Reds right-hander posted a 1.03 WHIP last season, which was good for 9th among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched.
Limits Hard Contact
Martinez is among the best in the big leagues at limiting hard contact. His excellent command and deceptive pitch mix helped him limit hitters to a 5.1% barrel rate and 30.5% hard-hit rate last season, which were in the 88th and 96th percentiles among qualified pitchers, respectively. Despite being a fly ball pitcher, Martinez’s excellent batted-ball metrics help him limit home runs.
2024 MLB HR/FB, min. 140 IP
- Chris Sale, ATL (6.3%)
- Hunter Greene, CIN (6.9%)
- Seth Lugo, KCR (7.4%)
- Nick Martinez, CIN (7.4%)
Fly ball pitchers who struggle with hard contact tend to give up lots of home runs, which subsequently inflates their ERA and makes it harder to provide fantasy value.
Limiting hard contact makes it likely the Reds right-hander will keep his ERA under 4.00 next season, which – paired with respectable innings totals – is valuable in deep leagues, especially in the late rounds or off of the waiver wire.
Consistent Production
After being underrated in the 2011 draft and going as the 564th overall pick, Martinez pitched four seasons in the Lone Star State and then played in Japan for another four years. In three years since returning, the right-hander has posted ERAs of 3.47, 3.43, and 3.10. Overall, his 3.31 ERA in that period ranks 17th among pitchers with at least 350 IP. That’s ahead of All-Star arms like Logan Gilbert, Kevin Gausman, and Aaron Nola.
And the things that have changed? They’re for the better. In addition to cutting down on walks in 2024, Martinez overhauled his profile as a pitcher. In 2023, Martinez got most of his outs via the ground ball; in 2024, he started throwing more four-seamers, cutters, and sliders and fewer sinkers, changeups, and curveballs. That adjustment led to a 10.6% increase in launch angle, which was second among qualified MLB pitchers last season.
2023-2024 MLB Change in Launch Angle, qualified pitchers
- Andre Pallante, STL (+12.7°)
- Nick Martinez, CIN (+10.6°)
- Colin Holderman, PIT (+9.3°)
Because he’s been so good at limiting hard contact throughout his career, the adjustment to coax more fly balls made sense for Martinez. Over the last 10 years, non-hard-hit fly balls have fared significantly worse than non-hard-hit ground balls.
The consistency of Martinez’s production – as well as the adjustments he’s made to be more effective – are yet another reason the underrated right-hander is worth rostering this season.
Increased Opportunity for 2025
According to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, Reds manager Terry Francona said this spring – despite Martinez’s hybrid role as a starter/reliever the last few seasons – that the team “certainly [views] him as a starter” heading into this season. That would open the door to more innings for the heavily underrated pitcher, who has only thrown 359 innings over the last three seasons. Seeing his excellent rate stats accumulate into impactful counting stats would be a massive benefit for fantasy managers in 2025.
Nick Martinez is as much of a “five-tool player” as pitchers can be. Very good stuff, a deep arsenal, consistency, adjustment-making ability, and elite command have enabled him to post superb results in the last three seasons. Combined with the opportunity for more innings in 2025, Martinez could be a bargain for fantasy managers looking for underrated starting pitching.
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