Week 18 Advanced Pitching Stats: Look for the Groundballs

We want excitement, of course, but as fantasy baseball managers, we are driven to results. But we want there to be pomp and circumstance. Explosive strikeouts and high velocity garner excitement. However, that’s not the only path to success. Keeping the ball on the ground could also lead to strong results. That’s where advanced pitching stats come into play. We’ll dig into some pitchers with a favorable GB%+ and what that means from a fantasy baseball perspective.

The higher the GB%+, the better, with 100 being league average. This ultimately measures how good pitchers are, compared to the rest of the league, at keeping the ball on the ground. More ground balls mean opposing hitters have less of a chance of hitting home runs and driving the ball.

Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats

I Want More

Jose Soriano is one of those pitchers I just can’t quit. Now, with an ERA of 3.79, there is some validity to that, and I’m not entirely crazy. Well, at least in the situation.

When we look at GB%+, it’s Soriano who sits atop the league. The right-hander sports a GB%+ of 163 to go along with a 40 FB%+. That is an insane split on opposite ends of the spectrum and should be a recipe for success. Those advanced stats combined with Soriano’s average fastball velocity of 97.9 miles per hour make him an attractive option for fantasy managers.

So far this season, that has translated to a 3.79 ERA with a 3.57 FIP, offering some upside. It should be obvious, but hitters have trouble squaring up the ball with a 7.6% barrel rate. Perhaps more important for limiting the damage, hitters have a launch angle off negative 3.6 degrees.

Now, if only Soriano can improve on his 7.71 strikeouts per nine innings. Based on the velocity, that number should be higher. That, along with improving his 4.14 BB/9, and Soriano should take the next step. Regardless, he’s a legitimate fantasy option.

Pallante Has Something to Offer

From a fantasy perspective, we need to get past the lack of strikeouts. Andre Pallante striking out just 5.85 batters per nine innings is a liability. However, the right-hander can be a solid streaming option and source of innings, as there are some good things in play.

Pallante is third in the league with a 146 GB%+ compared to his FB%+ of just 56. He also has a launch angle against of -0.4 along with a 6.8% barrel rate. Both are indicative of the quality of contact mustered by opposing hitters against Pallante, which has led to his success. Or should we say, the lack of quality contact.

The problem, though, is that there’s still more upside and potential to be found. Pallante does have a 4.62 ERA, but it comes with a 4.15 xERA and 3.78 xFIP. Should the right-hander find his way closer to those numbers, the view of Pallante would look quite different.

There’s Nothing Like a Dependable Veteran

At first glance, Merrill Kelly could be accused of being boring. I wouldn’t call that a fair assessment, though. While the advanced pitching stats back up Kelly’s success, the results on the field do as well. From a fantasy baseball perspective, you can do a lot worse than Kelly.

The veteran ranks 20th with a 107 GB%+ while combining that with a 109K%+. Through 22 starts, he has a 9-6 record while logging 128.2 innings. At the very least, that dependability has legitimate value. They are quality innings as they come with a 3.22 ERA (3.53 FIP). It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but hitters aren’t truly squaring Kelly up with an 8.8% barrel rate.

If we want to find one knock against Kelly, it is that he doesn’t strike out enough batters. While 8.46 strikeouts per nine innings doesn’t jump off the page, it does look better when considering the number of innings he provides.