One of the best parts about fantasy baseball is watching the action unfold on the field. However, there’s more to it than just the results on the field. While our success in fantasy baseball is measured by just a few statistics, there are a great deal of data points behind them. Evaluating players and their performance is based on more than just one variable. But combined, it all comes together. Under that guise, let’s take a look at three players and how we can view them based on their early-season performances.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Hitting Stats
This Winter Will be Better for Pete Alonso
The long-term statistical models don’t like Pete Alonso. It’s nothing personal, though, just business. Obviously, we shouldn’t tell that to Alonso, as he languished on the free agent market this winter. The big contract he was expecting never came, and instead, he settled for essentially a one-year deal to return to the Mets. It’s important to remember, though, that there’s a big difference between 2025 fantasy baseball production and MLB front offices.
In a down 2024 season, Alonso still finished with 34 home runs and 88 RBI. Most hitters would pine for that production, but it was a dip from his two previous seasons. However, through his first 23 games of the season, this is shaping up to be a career year for Alonso. For starters, there’s nothing advanced about Juan Soto batting in front of Alonso, but he’s certainly punishing the baseball.
Alonso’s .341 batting average isn’t going to stick, but there’s also been a noticeable change in approach. To this point, he had equal walk and strikeout rates of 14.1%, which, if he can sustain, will play a large part in his continued success. What we are really after, though, is what happens when the bat meets the ball for Alonso.
He continues to come up with runners on base, and producing has been almost a given with six home runs and 24 RBI. We can start with Alonso’s .354 ISO and then just keep on going. While Alonso’s maximum exit velocity is actually down from his career highs, he’s experiencing a consistency like none other. Alonso’s well into a career high average exit velocity of 96.2 miles per hour. Additionally, we have career highs, through Sunday, of a 22.4% barrel rate and 59.7% hard hit rate.
Even if Alonso’s batting average has some regression, his power and run production will continue to make him a fantasy asset this year.
We Should Buy on Trout
Health has been a real issue for Mike Trout over the past few years. That has led to a steep fall from a fantasy perspective, but is it really fair? Of course, we have to price a few stints on the Injured List into his value, but to this point, health has been in Trout’s favor. And when he’s on the field, the outfielder has a lot to give.
At first glance, though, Trout’s .184 batting average doesn’t do him any favors. Instead, it represents a buying opportunity from my perspective. Not only does his .133 BABIP have no place to go but up, but his .277 xBA certainly points us in that direction. Trout is struggling to make contact with a 27..8% strikeout rate, but it doesn’t represent a substantial problem. At least just yet. More importantly, there’s a lot to like about what happens when Trout does make contact.
Trout’s average exit velocity this season sits at 91.6 miles per hour, which makes sense considering his 20.8% barrel rate and 50.9% hard hit rate. The outfielder is also slugging .513, and that comes with an xSLG of .681. He has a lot more to offer.
Believe in Adolis Garcia
Adolis Garcia took a step back in 2024, but for those who believed it to be a temporary blip, there’s some value to be found. Based on Garcia’s .216 batting average to begin 2025, that value can still be found. Luck hasn’t been in Garcia’s favor as evidenced by his .218 BABIP with his .273 xBA pointing to better days.
Last season, Garcia’s knee was, at least partly, to blame, but he still finished with 25 home runs and 85 RBI. One of the biggest issues for Garcia was that he finished with just 11 stolen bases. Already this season, Garcia has four stolen bases, which points to confidence in his knee.
Aside from upside within his batting average, Garcia is striking the ball well. He has four home runs and nine RBI so far this year with a .230 ISO. That optimism continues across the board as Garcia’s Statcast page is represented by career highs. Those numbers include his 95.1 mile per hour average exit velocity, 24.9 degree average launch angle, 22% barrel rate, and 59.3% hard hit rate. We can also extend those feelings to the gap between Garcia’s .446 slugging percentage and his .594 xSLG. This is another example of how advanced stats could lead to finding fantasy baseball value.
