After a beautiful 3-0 day on Tuesday, we’re 6-3 on the season. I fully plan on keeping my crystal ball clear, so let’s make our next move, our best move! It’s baseball season my friends, and with the new rule changes, the game is faster and more action-packed than ever. Limited pickoff attempts and bigger bases should make steals more frequent. A ban on shifts make singles and doubles more prominent, so we’re more likely to see the return of small ball. And the pitch clock has more and more pitchers calling their own games. Every action has a reaction, so we will be sure to take these rule changes into account when we make our player prop selections. Sportsbooks vary, so we’ll set our own lines with what makes sense based on the data, and you can bet accordingly with your favorite sportsbook. Now, without further ado, let’s get into it!
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MLB Player Prop Bets for April 13th
Kike Hernandez OVER 1+ Total Bases:
Relax. I’m not telling you to bet on the Red Sox to beat the Rays. That would be insane. The Rays are en route to a 162-0 season, and I won’t get in the way of that. I do think it’s safe to assume that the Rays won’t throw a perfect game, and in that, I believe Kike Hernandez will get on base one way or another. He’s likely batting leadoff, so we should get an extra at-bat (relative to when he’s hitting at the bottom of the order), he’s also 4-8 with 2 XBH, 1 HR, and 2 BB. That’s good enough for me to feel like a hit or a walk should be in order against the Rays’ stout starter. I wouldn’t be greedy, but he has the ability to steal bases as well, so if you want to chase better odds for 2+ total bases, I won’t be mad at ya.
Nick Castellanos UNDER 1 Hit:
Nick Lodolo is looking like a Cy Young winner in the making. Even though righties hit him better than lefties, Nick Castellanos has had a limited, but poor track record vs. Lodolo. Castellanos is hitting 1-5 with 2 strikeouts and no walks. Typically, that’s too small of a sample size for me to chase tendencies, but when the pitcher you’re up against is likely going to lead the league in strikeouts after his start, it’s tough for me to expect Castellanos to get good contact. I don’t feel great about this one, but I feel good enough to put a unit on it.
Brandon Lowe OVER 1+ Hits:
I want a piece of some of this Tampa Bay Rays magic. They’re going to match the all-time record for a win streak to start the season, and I’m not going to be the one to bet against them to reach it. Corey Kluber is on the mound against them, and he throws his cutter the most of all his pitch mix. You know who love a cutter? Brandon Lowe. He hits .609 ISO and .528 wOBA according to RotoGrinders. That’s a recipe for a dinger, so I feel like I’m giving us a nice margin for error just expecting a single hit.